For many years, Prognos World Reports have served decision-makers both in policy and economy as a reliable basis for planning the future. In a fast changing environment sound forecasts are indispensable for careful strategic decisions, especially in view of their irreversible long-term effects.
The new Prognos World Report anticipates that the current financial market crisis will cause only a short term slackening of global economic activity. Nonetheless, the consequences of the crisis will be remarkable especially in the USA and in countries with a high dependency on external demand like Germany, Japan and China. The crisis was provoked by the collapse of real estate prices, but the threat for the economy as a whole emerge from the tightening of credit standards and credit accessibility – as credits are the grease that keep the economic wheels turning. According to our forecast GDP growth in the USA and Germany will drop to 1.6 % this year, followed by 1.7 % in 2009. With these growth rates Germany will fall behind the Euro-Zone and the European Union.
In the long term up to 2020, the Report anticipates a growth of World GDP of 2.9 % p.a. More and more of this expansion will be contributed by the emerging and newly industrialized countries, and among them especially by those from Asia. Therefore the “old” industrial countries’ (i.e. the Report countries) share of world GDP will decline by almost 9 percentage points to 59 % between 2009 and 2020, whereas Asia will be gaining more than 7 percentage points and reach 27 % in the long run.