
Based on a detailed and sophisticated multi-country-model the Prognos World Report illustrates the near and long term future of the leading industrial countries and the world economy. The main findings of the current edition are:
with GDP growth rates of 4.0% and 3.4% the recovery of the world economy continues in 2011 and 2012. The leading emerging countries are the main drivers of global growth.
We expect the highly indebted countries (e.g. Greece, Ireland) to solve their debt problems by implementing “normal” consolidation measures (cutting expenditure, rising tax quotas and selling public property) thus reducing their debt-per-GDP-ratio in the middle term. However, the road ahead will be long, hard and uncomfortable.
Consolidation measures especially in the USA, which are expected from 2013 onwards, will distinctly dampen global GDP growth in the middle term.
In the long term, the most favourable economic development is expected in Slovenia and Australia. Regarding the levels of GDP per capita, Japan, Norway and the United States will be the richest countries worldwide.
Among the emerging countries, China and India will achieve the highest GDP per capita growth rates (about 5%) in the long term.
For many years the Prognos World Report has served decision-makers in both the public and private sectors as a reliable basis for planning the future. In a fast-changing environment sound forecasts are indispensable for solid and well-founded strategic decisions, especially in view of their irreversible long-term effects.