For many years the Prognos World Report has served decision-makers in both the public and private sectors as a reliable basis for planning the future. In a fast-changing environment sound forecasts are indispensable for solid and well-founded strategic decisions, especially in view of their irreversible long-term effects.

The new Prognos World Report anticipates that the current recovery of the world economy will hold. Different initial conditions and varying policy responses will lead to diverging recovery performances within and between regions. Output in the World Report countries is expected to grow by 1.8 percent in 2010 and by 1.7 percent in 2011. This recovery is weak by historical standards in the industrial countries. For these countries as a whole, it will take until 2013 for GDP per capita to rise back up to pre-crisis levels. In emerging countries, growth is expected to achieve rates of 5.5 percent in 2010 and of 6.2 percent in 2011.

In the medium term, the USA will be able to play their traditional role as the growth engine for the global economy only to a limited extent. We expect Asian emerging countries like China and India to step into the breach by pushing domestic spending (i.e. private consumption) and therefore helping to rebalance the global saving-spending pattern. The prospects for global GDP growth are somewhat dimmed with 2.9% p.a. (2011-2035), compared with our estimates from previous pre-crisis World Reports. According to our estimates, in 2035 more than 70% of global GDP growth is carried by the current emerging countries, and almost one third is falling upon China and India.