Expertise

Energy Scenarios & Sector Coupling

Decarbonising & ensuring security of supply.

In the wake of the energy transition, energy systems worldwide are undergoing profound restructuring. Climate protection requires the rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to the point of complete decarbonisation. A functioning energy system must meet complex security of supply requirements, be affordable and contribute to the competitiveness of the economy.

The increasing importance of electricity is closely linked to sector coupling

Electricity will play an increasingly important role in the energy supply of the future: instead of fossil fuels, it will become the central energy carrier for heat generation, mobility and the production of hydrogen. This is known as sector coupling, and it will bring together different sectors such as the electricity sector, industry, transport and buildings. Managing flexible consumption sites such as heat pumps or batteries enables the integration of fluctuating electricity generation by photovoltaic or wind power.

Making development paths visible with energy scenarios

The paths along which energy system transformation can succeed are illustrated by scenarios calculated by utilising energy models. They can provide a comprehensive picture of the energy system - including the dependencies and interactions between different sectors. The comparison between several energy scenarios shows the effects of different development paths: the impact of technologies and policy instruments on energy consumption, emissions and prices, for example, becomes transparent. In addition, it is possible to determine the costs and benefits for different groups of actors.

Energy Scenarios & Sector Coupling: Our services

Energy and climate protection scenarios

We provide a quantitative basis for energy and climate protection strategies. We use our proven bottom-up models to calculate energy demand, energy supply and the associated greenhouse gas emissions.

Models

By means of our model system, we consistently calculate the impact of specific energy policies or comprehensive packages of measures and determine their contribution to achieving energy and climate targets.

Ex-Post-Analyses of Energy Consumption

We provide model-based ex-post analyses of energy consumption by sector, energy source and intended use, and determine consumption trends according to key influencing factors (e.g. economic development, the impact of energy policy instruments, price trends).

Energy demand analyses and other impact assessments

The modelling of energy demand and supply provides the basis for planning energy supply and infrastructure and for assessing the security of supply. We link the calculated investments in energy system transformation with economic models and thereby determine the overall economic costs and effects on individual economic sectors.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

International potential analysis of hydrogen technology for mobility solutions

2021
| Project

Hydrogen is considered a future source of energy in the transport sector. Prognos determined the framework conditions for hydrogen technologies in important international markets.

Comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios

2022
| Project

Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios.

Decentralised heat supply in a climate-neutral Germany

2022
| Project

What role does the heat pump play in a 100-percent renewable electricity system compared to hydrogen heating? An analysis for the Climate Neutrality Foundation.

Target paths to meet the climate goals in transport

2021
| Project

Which policy measures are required to achieve the 2030 climate targets for transport? Prognos answers these questions for environmental association, Transport & Environment, in “Target paths for transport.”

Technical CO2 sinks

2021
| Project

To achieve climate neutrality, CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere. Prognos prepared an expert report on technical CO2 sinks for dena.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition

2020
| Project

For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

Climate Path for Germany

2018
| Project

How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI).

IMPORTANCE OF LIQUID ENERGY SOURCES FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION

2018
| Project

There is still a need for liquid energy sources such as gasoline. E-fuels are an almost greenhouse gas-neutral alternative to fossil fuels. Prognos examined their perspectives in the energy transition for the associations of the mineral oil industry.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Almut Kirchner

Director, Partner

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Dr Andreas Kemmler

Senior Project Manager

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Marco Wünsch

Principal

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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