Energy Scenarios & Sector Coupling

Decarbonising & ensuring security of supply.

In the wake of the energy transition, energy systems worldwide are undergoing profound restructuring. Climate protection requires the rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to the point of complete decarbonisation. A functioning energy system must meet complex security of supply requirements, be affordable and contribute to the competitiveness of the economy.

The increasing importance of electricity is closely linked to sector coupling

Electricity will play an increasingly important role in the energy supply of the future: instead of fossil fuels, it will become the central energy carrier for heat generation, mobility and the production of hydrogen. This is known as sector coupling, and it will bring together different sectors such as the electricity sector, industry, transport and buildings. Managing flexible consumption sites such as heat pumps or batteries enables the integration of fluctuating electricity generation by photovoltaic or wind power.

Making development paths visible with energy scenarios

The paths along which energy system transformation can succeed are illustrated by scenarios calculated by utilising energy models. They can provide a comprehensive picture of the energy system - including the dependencies and interactions between different sectors. The comparison between several energy scenarios shows the effects of different development paths: the impact of technologies and policy instruments on energy consumption, emissions and prices, for example, becomes transparent. In addition, it is possible to determine the costs and benefits for different groups of actors.

Energy Scenarios & Sector Coupling: Our services

Energy and climate protection scenarios

We provide a quantitative basis for energy and climate protection strategies. We use our proven bottom-up models to calculate energy demand, energy supply and the associated greenhouse gas emissions.


By means of our model system, we consistently calculate the impact of specific energy policies or comprehensive packages of measures and determine their contribution to achieving energy and climate targets.

Ex-Post-Analyses of Energy Consumption

We provide model-based ex-post analyses of energy consumption by sector, energy source and intended use, and determine consumption trends according to key influencing factors (e.g. economic development, the impact of energy policy instruments, price trends).

Energy demand analyses and other impact assessments

The modelling of energy demand and supply provides the basis for planning energy supply and infrastructure and for assessing the security of supply. We link the calculated investments in energy system transformation with economic models and thereby determine the overall economic costs and effects on individual economic sectors.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal

| Project

How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).

Policy Paper MEPS: Minimum efficiency standards for existing buildings

| Project

Energy-efficient building renovation is an important part of achieving climate protection goals in the buildings sector. A brief summary of the role of MEPS within this context.

11th Energy Transition Monitoring

| Project

Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals.

Regulation of third-party access to heating networks

| Project

The EU Commission wants to make third-party access to district heating networks mandatory. We assessed the consequences for Germany and the possible contribution to decarbonisation on behalf of the BMWK.

Interview with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung

| News

Energy expert Dr Almut Kirchner talks to the Neue Zürcher Zeitung about the Swiss energy system.

Evaluation and further development of the national Emissions Trading System (nETS)

| Project

On behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, we are developing suitable approaches for the impact assessment of the nETS together with the FÖS and the DIW.

The world negotiates on climate

| News

On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise.

Electricity price forecast

| Project

How will the price of electricity develop over the next few years? A scenario calculation of wholesale electricity prices for the vbw.

Gas shortfall less than expected, prices remain high

| News

The gas reservoirs are full, and gas shortages are likely to be significantly less of a problem than feared. However, high gas prices have become almost too expensive for some companies to pay.

International potential analysis of hydrogen technology for mobility solutions

| Project

Hydrogen is considered a future source of energy in the transport sector. Prognos determined the framework conditions for hydrogen technologies in important international markets.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Almut Kirchner

Director, Partner

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Dr Andreas Kemmler

Senior Project Manager

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Marco Wünsch


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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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