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Heat Market

A key sector for the energy transition.

More than half of the final energy consumed in Germany is used to generate heat: for heating buildings, for hot water preparation, for process heat. The heating market is an important economic factor and crucial for a successful energy transition. Currently, fossil energy sources dominate heat generation: they have a share of over 70 percent. Renewable energies with a share of just under 12 percent and district heating with around 10 percent are still "playing on the side-lines".

Energy transition in the heating market: sector coupling and district heating play a central role

The climate goals affect the heating market in several ways. By 2050, buildings will be energetically renovated and industrial processes will be designed much more efficiently. This will lead to greater energy efficiency - the demand for heat will fall in all sectors. The remaining heat production will be increasingly decarbonised through renewable energies. Sector coupling  will play an important role due to the use of heat pumps. To tap the potential of industrial waste heat or geothermal energy and to make use of renewable heat generation, expanding the district heating supply is an option in many cities. Hydrogen produced from renewable sources will also play a role in future heat generation: This fuel is particularly suitable for process heat in some branches of industry.

Investments under scrutiny

The challenge: climate goals in the heating market can only be achieved if decarbonisation goes hand in hand with increased energy efficiency. However, investments in the infrastructure for the production, distribution and consumption of heat are under particular scrutiny resulting from the overall decline in demand for heat.

Heat Market: A selection of our services

Forecasts & Scenarios

Based on model-based forecasts and scenarios, we develop strategies in the field of energy and climate protection.

Potentials of technical measures in the heating market

We identify and analyse the potential of technical measures in the heating market and assess their macroeconomic impact.

Evaluation of energy policy instruments

We evaluate energy policy instruments for our customers, further develop them and assess their impact.


We provide scientific guidance for energy and climate policy. We provide monitoring and prepare standardised reports.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Erfahrener Ingenieur erklärt die Probleme bei Bauarbeiten. Teamwork auf der Baustelle.

The future of construction


For the building industry, climate protection is moving into the centre. Because it is one of the largest consumers of resources and energy. Study for the Future Council of the vbw.


Technical CO2 sinks


To achieve climate neutrality, CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere. Prognos prepared an expert report on technical CO2 sinks for dena.

Bepflanzte Hauswand eines Hochhauses

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045


Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Renovierung eines Gebäudes oder Hausbau

Decarbonisation options in the building sector


How can greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector be reduced?

Eine Wasserstoffsäule



There is still a need for liquid energy sources such as gasoline. E-fuels are an almost greenhouse gas-neutral alternative to fossil fuels. Prognos examined their perspectives in the energy transition for the associations of the mineral oil industry.

Vogelperspektive auf einen kleinen Pfad in einem Wald

Climate Path for Germany


How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI).

Modernes, isoliertes Haus in Holzoptik mit verglaster Front

Demand for skilled labour for the energy transition of buildings


One of the results of the study: For the implementation of the energy transformation, 130,000 additional workers will be needed.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Nils Thamling

Senior Project Manager

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Marco Wünsch


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Dr Alexander Piegsa

Senior Expert Models and Industry

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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