Heat Market

A key sector for the energy transition.

More than half of the final energy consumed in Germany is used to generate heat: for heating buildings, for hot water preparation, for process heat. The heating market is an important economic factor and crucial for a successful energy transition. Currently, fossil energy sources dominate heat generation: they have a share of over 70 percent. Renewable energies with a share of just under 12 percent and district heating with around 10 percent are still "playing on the side-lines".

Energy transition in the heating market: sector coupling and district heating play a central role

The climate goals affect the heating market in several ways. By 2050, buildings will be energetically renovated and industrial processes will be designed much more efficiently. This will lead to greater energy efficiency - the demand for heat will fall in all sectors. The remaining heat production will be increasingly decarbonised through renewable energies. Sector coupling  will play an important role due to the use of heat pumps. To tap the potential of industrial waste heat or geothermal energy and to make use of renewable heat generation, expanding the district heating supply is an option in many cities. Hydrogen produced from renewable sources will also play a role in future heat generation: This fuel is particularly suitable for process heat in some branches of industry.

Investments under scrutiny

The challenge: climate goals in the heating market can only be achieved if decarbonisation goes hand in hand with increased energy efficiency. However, investments in the infrastructure for the production, distribution and consumption of heat are under particular scrutiny resulting from the overall decline in demand for heat.

Heat Market: A selection of our services

Forecasts & Scenarios

Based on model-based forecasts and scenarios, we develop strategies in the field of energy and climate protection.

Potentials of technical measures in the heating market

We identify and analyse the potential of technical measures in the heating market and assess their macroeconomic impact.

Evaluation of energy policy instruments

We evaluate energy policy instruments for our customers, further develop them and assess their impact.


We provide scientific guidance for energy and climate policy. We provide monitoring and prepare standardised reports.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios

| Project

Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios.

Decentralised heat supply in a climate-neutral Germany

| Project

What role does the heat pump play in a 100-percent renewable electricity system compared to hydrogen heating? An analysis for the Climate Neutrality Foundation.

Green Finance's contribution on the way to climate neutrality

| Project

On the way to climate neutrality, green finance gains importance. For the first time, the total climate protection investments required to achieve the climate targets in Germany have been quantified by Prognos.

The future of construction

| Project

For the building industry, climate protection is moving into the centre. Because it is one of the largest consumers of resources and energy. Study for the Future Council of the vbw.

Technical CO2 sinks

| Project

To achieve climate neutrality, CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere. Prognos prepared an expert report on technical CO2 sinks for dena.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Decarbonisation options in the building sector

| Project

How can greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector be reduced?

Climate Path for Germany

| Project

How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI).


| Project

There is still a need for liquid energy sources such as gasoline. E-fuels are an almost greenhouse gas-neutral alternative to fossil fuels. Prognos examined their perspectives in the energy transition for the associations of the mineral oil industry.

Demand for skilled labour for the energy transition of buildings

| Project

One of the results of the study: For the implementation of the energy transformation, 130,000 additional workers will be needed.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Nils Thamling

Senior Project Manager

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Marco Wünsch


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Dr Alexander Piegsa

Senior Expert Models and Industry

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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