In the year 2025 there could be 2.9 million people in employment in Germany. The shortage would be mainly among people with vocational qualifications.
This is the result of the study "Arbeitslandschaft 2025" (Working Landscape 2025), which Prognos produced for the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft. Prognos managing director Christian Bllhoff presented the investigation on Friday, 1. March, with a vbw congress. At the meeting also the deputy Bavarian Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger and vbw managing director Bertram Brossardt spoke.
The number of people aged between 15 and 64 will fall in the forecast period from 54 million to 47 million in 2045. If there is no change in training preferences, the supply of workers with a university degree will increase, while fewer and fewer people with vocational qualifications will be available on the labor market in the future.
According to the study, Bavaria is also affected by the shortage of employed persons. Despite the more favourable demographic development, a labour shortage of 350,000 people is expected for Bavaria in 2025. In Bavaria, too, the majority of the gap is made up of middle-qualification workers.
In order to avoid or reduce the potential imbalances, measures must be taken in the following fields of action:
In particular, a further increase in the labour force participation of women and older workers and an increase in the weekly working hours of part-time employees can make important contributions to ensuring the availability of skilled labour.
Since 2008, the study series "Work Landscape" has provided an overview of the development of labour demand and labour supply in Germany. Economic and technological developments and the ageing of the population will have a major impact on the future labour market.
In most sectors, fewer people will work in the future than today. The exceptions are areas such as IT, electronic and optical equipment, information and communication as well as health and social services.
Autor: Dr. Oliver Ehrentraut
Kunde: Study commissioned by vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft (Bavarian Business Association)