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Models & Methods

Achieving the goal with the right methods.

Our work is based on sociological and economic methods. The Prognos toolbox contains both tried-and-tested and innovative tools. Also Data Science is part of it. One thing all our methods have in common: they are scientifically sound and reliable.

Unique: the Prognos models.

Reliable analyses and forecasts up to 40 years into the future – this is what Prognos stands for. For this, our experts have developed specific high-performance instruments: the technical-economic Prognos models. They allow us to answer very different, challenging system-related questions in the fields of economics, social welfare, energy and transport.

A selection of our methods.

Data Analysis/Data Science

  • Quantitative and econometric analysis and evaluation of national and international official statistics and representative data sets (e.g. micro-census and the socio-economic panel [SOEP])
  • Web crawling analyses with the Prognos Crawler
  • Further Big Data analysis tools
  • Graphical and interactive processing of complex data


  • Delphi surveys
  • Panels
  • Online surveys
  • Interviews and technical discussions with experts and stakeholders


Workshops & Moderation

  • Design and facilitation of online, hybrid and on-site meetings
  • Workshops with strategic and implementing actors
  • Focus groups
  • Large group moderation
  • Design thinking workshops
  • Graphic recording



Evaluation & impact analyses

  • Economic feasibility studies
  • Cost-benefit analyses
  • Implementation and environment analyses
  • Theory-based impact analyses
  • Target achievement and impact monitoring
  • Counterfactual or comparative impact analyses

Organisational analyses

  • Environment analyses
  • Process visualisation
  • Staffing needs assessment


Project planning, project management & monitoring

  • Road mapping
  • Risk and sensitivity analyses as well as opportunity-risk assessment
  • Programme and project data monitoring



Prognos Models

The technical-economic Prognos models can be interlinked depending on the question and make interdisciplinary aspects of a topic visible. This graphic shows how the models are interlinked:

A larger screen is required to use this interactive map of our models (display size from 1300px width). If you have a specific question about our models, please use the contact form below.


The strengths of our models

  • Refined. Over 40 years of model work have shaped our model portfolio into what it is today. The Prognos models successfully compete with other models from science and consulting.
  • Interlinked. Our sub-models can be linked with each other depending on the issue at hand and thus depict interactions as well as overarching and integrated aspects.
  • Scientific. Our modelling is based on precise knowledge of how the respective segment and its dynamics work.
  • Tried-and-tested. We have been using models for decades, dealing with recurring issues. This allows us to check the results retrospectively and to constantly refine our models.
  • Resilient. We map the interactions and dynamics in the respective segments with well-founded arguments and underpin our results with sensitivity calculations.
  • Flexible. New questions require new approaches. Our models are modular to a large extent and can be extended or adapted to specific questions.

Your topics – our expertise.

You are engaged in relevant topics and future issues from the economy, politics or society? So are we! Learn more about our expertise.

To the topic overview

Feel free to contact us.

Dr Almut Kirchner

Director, Partner

+41 61 32 73 331

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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