Addressing climate change smartly and consistently. The energy system is by far the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change worldwide. Transforming this system while maintaining the capacity of the economy and at the same time the prosperity of society is one of the most significant tasks in countering climate change. Energy transition means meeting climate targets without neglecting security of supply and affordability. The extension of renewables, increased energy efficiency, and the import of climate-friendlier energy sources must be as effectively organised as CO2 storage. Those who are, at the same time, designing measures to adapt to the climate change that is no longer avoidable, are acting responsibly. But where is the potential for regenerative energy sources greatest? How do political instruments and current crises impact demand, emissions and prices? How can we sustainably meet increasing demand due to electrification or in passenger and freight transport? What promising business models are emerging? We develop decision-making principles – with our strategic competence developed over decades, our unique models, our leading expertise, and our communication strength. Together, we look towards a future worth living – and let it become a reality. Energy System & Climate Protection To curb global warming, greenhouse gas emissions must be avoided. This requires a transformation of the energy system. Read more Power & Renewables Expanding renewable energies is crucial to achieve the climate targets. The backbone of the energy system transformation: the electricity system. Read more Heat & Energy Efficiency Increasing energy efficiency and the decarbonisation of the heating market are two of the most important strategic tasks for a successful energy transition. Read more Fuels & CO2 Large consumers such as the steel industry and air traffic must be supplied with fuels today and in the future. While climate-damaging natural gas and mineral oil products currently dominate, climate-friendly energy sources are soon to play a more significant role. Read more Climate Adaptation A strategy for dealing with climate change must be built upon two pillars: mitigation and adaptation. Read more Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. Electricity grid expansion makes headway 2020 | Project For over 15 years now Prognos has been bringing together the actors concerned by the expansion of the electricity grid and facilitating dialogue between them – from the Danish to the Swiss bor-der. Read more Support for the Just Transition Platform 2024 | Project Through the Just Transition Platform (JTP), the EU supports the member states and regions in achieving their climate targets in a fair manner. Prognos provided the JTP with in-depth analyses and knowledge management. Read more 12th Energy Transition Monitoring 2024 | Project The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red. Read more Annual Energy Transition Monitoring ongoing | Project What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw. Read more German energy market design 2024 | Project In the coming years new renewable power plants will have to be built – but also flexible gas power plants, which can be used when required. We examined various incentive instruments on behalf of the vbw. Read more Energate Forum: Industry meets Energy 7. May 2024 | Event At the energate Forum, energy market expert Sven Kreidelmeyer will give a keynote speech on the topic: Quo vadis energy prices. Read more Alternative transport scenario for Germany 2024 | Project Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development. Read more Ex-post analysis of energy consumption in Switzerland 2022 2023 | Project update Final energy consumption in Switzerland for the year 2022 was around 4 percent less than in the year 2021. Mobility (32 percent) accounted for the largest share. Read more Socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland ongoing | Project What will Switzerland look like in the future? A welfare state in a fair world or an energy guzzler in fortress Europe? We examine the potential impacts of different scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions. Read more Climate path implementation in Baden-Württemberg 2024 | Project In Baden-Württemberg, emissions are to be reduced by a further 23% by 2030. As part of a multi-stage concept, Prognos examines the challenges and opportunities for action in the transfor-mation context. Read more Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany 2023 | Project How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW. Read more Climate-impacting transformation in the transport sector ongoing | Project The latest geopolitical and economic developments present a challenge for the ecological transi-tion of transport. Prognos develops measures for the BMDV. Read more Reforming environmentally harmful subsidies 2023 | Project On behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, we examined the effects of phasing out climate damaging subsidies in the transport and industry sectors. Read more Communication support for the building of the 380 kV West Coast Line 2023 | Project The extension of the energy network lays the foundation for the energy transition. Since 2019, Prognos has been supporting transmission system operator TenneT TSO GmbH with their project communication concerning the establishment of the new West Coast transmission line in Schleswig-Holstein. Read more Analyses of Swiss energy use ongoing | Project On behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), we conduct an annual analysis of the development of energy consumption in Switzerland. Read more Energy prices for industry, an international comparison 2023 | Project Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030. Read more The Circular Week 2023 24. - 25. October 2023 | Event From October 24th to 25th, Hanne Hagedorn will be in Warsaw for the Green Economy Network.NRW as part of the Circular Economy Week 2023. Read more Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials 2023 | Project Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains. Read more Implementation of the European Green Deal through EU cohesion policy ongoing | Project The EU’s C4T platform supports structurally weak regions in their transition to a carbon-free and resilient Europe. In this context, Prognos is responsible for establishing a scientific forum. Read more Electricity price forecast 2023 2023 | Project In the medium and long term, average wholesale electricity prices are above the 2019/2020 level. Our updated scenarios for the vbw. Read more Article in "Die Volkswirtschaft": EU reaction to electricity prices 2023 | Expertise The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things. Read more Climate policy classification for LNG 2023 | Project How much LNG can it be? Prognos prepared two studies for the German government's Science Platform for Climate Protection (WPKS) to address this question. Read more Green electricity atlas Project What do the targets of the Renewable Energy Sources Act mean for the German regions? The Prognos Energieatlas shows the availability of green electricity – in all 400 districts and independent cities. Read more Economic efficiency of heat pumps 2023 | Project For a paper by Environmental Action Germany, we provided case studies on the question of whether the switch to heat pumps in typical single- and multi-family homes is more economical than exchanging gas boilers. Read more Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany 2022 | Project A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes. Read more Accompanying research on the FONA strategy ongoing | Project The Research for Sustainability (FONA) funding programme is intended to contribute to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Will this target be achieved and which methods can be used to measure this? We investigate this together with partners for the BMBF. Read more Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors 2023 | Project One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages. Read more Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality 2023 | Project How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures. Read more Gas balance: Too little is being saved 2023 | Project update Although German gas storage tanks remain at good levels, our vbw monitoring revealed that sav-ings due to behavioural changes were no longer detectable. Read more Accelerated climate protection does pay off 2023 | Project If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM. Read more Overall impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation on the German economy ongoing | Project For the first time, an expert report for the Federal Ministry of Economics will jointly assess the economic impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation. Read more Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein ongoing | Project How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation? Read more Sustainable end-of-life vehicle recycling 2023 | Project Circular economy in practice: As part of the MaterialLoop project, we have been working with Audi and TSR on how more materials from end-of-life vehicles can be used in the production of new vehicles. Read more DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal ongoing | Project How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO). Read more Mild weather in winter takes off the pressure 2023 | Project update So far, Germany has made it through the winter with relatively little gas. But savings will still be necessary if a gas shortage is to be prevented. Read more Policy Paper MEPS: Minimum efficiency standards for existing buildings 2023 | Project Energy-efficient building renovation is an important part of achieving climate protection goals in the buildings sector. A brief summary of the role of MEPS within this context. Read more 11th Energy Transition Monitoring 2023 | Project Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals. Read more Increased climate benefits thanks to European waste management 2022 | Project What contribution does European waste management make to achieving the Paris climate agreement goals? Read more Regulation of third-party access to heating networks 2022 | Project The EU Commission wants to make third-party access to district heating networks mandatory. We assessed the consequences for Germany and the possible contribution to decarbonisation on behalf of the BMWK. Read more Evaluation and further development of the national Emissions Trading System (nETS) 2022 | Project On behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, we are developing suitable approaches for the impact assessment of the nETS together with the FÖS and the DIW. Read more Impact of e-commerce on CO2 emissions and air pollution 2022 | Project We examined retail transport chains for the EU Commission. For the environment, long-distance transport to the EU and the “last mile” play a crucial role. Read more The gas gap is getting smaller, but we’re not in the clear 2022 | Project update Reducing gas demand is the decisive lever for averting a gas shortage situation in the coming winter of 2023/24. Read more Eleven measures to achieve 2030 climate target 2022 | Project Germany risks not hitting its 2030 climate objectives. The Forum Ökologisch-Soziale Marktwirtschaft proposes eleven measures. We assessed their impact on climate protection in the transport and building sectors. Read more Close-up on heat pumps 2022 | Project Due to increased gas prices, heat pumps are significantly more economical than fossil fuel heaters for average renovated apartment buildings. Read more Disruption to gas supply – consequences for the brick industry 2022 | Project A study of the production, value-added, and price effects on and through the brick and tile industry in Germany for the Federal Association of the German Brick and Tile Industry. Read more Electricity price forecast 2022 | Project How will the price of electricity develop over the next few years? A scenario calculation of wholesale electricity prices for the vbw. Read more No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security. 2022 | Project Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike. Read more Gas shortfall less than expected, prices remain high 2022 | Project update The gas reservoirs are full, and gas shortages are likely to be significantly less of a problem than feared. However, high gas prices have become almost too expensive for some companies to pay. Read more Green finance's contribution to achieving climate neutrality in Germany 2022 | Project What is the public share of climate protection investment? An investigation for the KfW. Read more Status of the gas supply 2022 | Project update What is the latest on the gas supply in Germany? How high is demand? How high are gas storage levels? What would the damage be to the German economy if delivery failed completely? Read more We take you further. Our services. We provide high quality work. Using sound methods, we analyse economic and political developments. For projects and processes, we provide solution-oriented and empathetic support. 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