Prognoses & Scenarios

How many nursing staff will Germany be short in 20 years – with and without increased immigration? What will happen to the euro zone if Chinese economic growth is stronger or weaker than expected? How can we achieve climate targets and what changes are needed to do so?

These are the questions decision-makers turn to Prognos for. Long-term planning requires foundations that help to assess possible developments in the future.

We have been analysing the development of complex systems for over 60 years. On the basis of well-engineered economic models we investigate medium and long-term developments in business and politics. We bring you closer to the future by showing you what your organisation can expect over the next five to 25 years. In addition to monitoring the impacts of technical developments and economic indicators, we review changes in the political and industry environment, assess their effect on relevant target variables, and identify the levers that can be used to shape your future.

Scenarios and prognoses are a methodology for the systematic analysis of complex systems. They always lead to conditional statements and usually provide the most meaningful results when comparing different sets of assumptions. Prognoses are a special category of scenarios in which a high probability of occurrence is assigned to a chosen set of assumptions about framework conditions and development determinants. In principle, it is assumed that the future of complex systems depends on decisions and thus, can be shaped. Scenarios and prognoses do not claim to predict a future with absolute certainty but rather seek to systematically explore the areas of possibility and probability.

Use our prognoses and scenarios for your own strategic planning, anticipate opportunities earlier than others, warn politicians and the public of impending undesirable developments. In short, recognise future developments and act in a timely manner.