Prognos is an independent firm specialising in economic research, policy advice and strategic consultancy. Prognos carries out evaluations, impact assessments, scenario analyses and develops strategies for public institutions, companies, associations and civil society organisations.The company at a glance:founded in 1959 at the University of Basel (Switzerland)10 offices in Germany, Belgium, Austria and Switzerlandapprox. 250 employees300 projects per yearWhy well-founded visions of the future are crucial todaySociety, the economy and politics are under intense pressure to transform. Companies, institutions, public authorities and organisations must be able to adapt quickly and remain resilient in the face of external shocks. Demographic change, geopolitical shifts, climate change, the energy transition, changing household circumstances, digitalisation and artificial intelligence are all exerting simultaneous pressure on organisations, regions and markets.This makes decision-making more complex. At the same time, wrong decisions become riskier – and more costly.Organisations therefore require evidence-based, transparent and practical foundations for decision-making and action. They are seeking independent partners who can analyse future developments systematically and free from ideological bias, identify options for action and provide support in implementing strategies.This is precisely where Prognos comes in: we examine long-term developments, assess potential impacts and support our clients in their strategy development.Independent economic research with a practical focusPrognos operates at the interface between empirical research, quantitative scenario modelling and strategic consultancy.However, a scientific foundation is not an end in itself in our work. The aim is to derive clear decision options and actionable guidelines for our clients from our analyses. Our projects can range from analysis through strategy development to implementation.Enabling progress. With evidence.Prognos analyses economic, social and political interrelations and examines short- and long-term developments. These include, for example, the effects of policy measures, the development of regions and labour markets, structural change within sectors, and the consequences of deglobalisation.Furthermore, Prognos provides support in the implementation of adaptation strategies, takes on administrative functions and facilitates multi-stakeholder processes.Our services include, amongst others:evaluations of public programmes and funding schemesimpact analyses of policy instrumentsimpact analyses of economic activities by companies and sectorsscenario and future analysesregional, location and infrastructure analysesskilled labour forecastsstudies, expert reports and calculations for strategic decision-making processesstrategy and transformation consultancyorganisational development and multi-stakeholder processessustainability consultancy and climate resiliencedesign and facilitation of specialist events, workshops, public dialogues and participatory processessupport for strategy and implementation processesEU-related policy analyses, as well as monitoring and evaluation servicesanalyses and strategy development to strengthen organisational and regional resiliencePrognos operates at European, national, regional and local levels.Prognos is not a market research, opinion polling or survey institute.What clients receive from PrognosWe document the results of our research in a transparent manner and prepare them for their specific application. Depending on the project, the analyses can serve as a basis for political, administrative, corporate or public communication.We place particular emphasis on:transparent documentation of assumptions and methodstailored presentation for different target groupsinterdisciplinary teams for complex issuesquality assurance by experienced researchersprofessional project management with reliable and innovative processespolitical neutrality, even on sensitive issuesrelevance for citizens and a solid foundation for debatereliable points of contact and clear communicationClients often choose Prognos when methodological quality, robust results and reliable, approachable project management are equally important. The value of our work stems from the fact that well-founded decisions reduce risks, provide direction and enable sustainable long-term solutions.Our clients define the subject of the study. The choice of methods, the analysis and the interpretation of the results are carried out by Prognos independently and in accordance with scientific standards. We document and disclose our assumptions, data sources and methodologies. Our findings are therefore recognised across the entire political, democratic spectrum.Many clients have worked with Prognos over long periods or commission us repeatedly (including the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the European Commission, the Bavarian Industry Association, the ADAC, the Bertelsmann Foundation, the Swiss Federal Department of Energy, KfW and the Federation of German Industries). These long-term partnerships are an important indicator of trust and the quality of our work.Methods, data sources and quality assurancePrognos combines qualitative and quantitative research methods. The choice of methods depends on the research question, the available data and the intended use.Our work is based, amongst other things, on:our own economic, macroeconomic, microeconomic and sectoral modelsmany years’ experience with impact and effectiveness analysesempirical analyses, statistical evaluations and literature reviewsexpert interviews and surveysestablished evaluation proceduresThe quality of our work is based on scientific standards, many years of experience and continuous quality assurance.This includes:consistent (public) data sources, such as those from the German Federal Statistical Office or Eurostatplausibility and sensitivity analysesthe dual-control principle and internal peer reviewsinterdisciplinary teams, for example comprising experts from economics, political science, sociology, geography or physicsresponsible use of AIPrognos is continuously refining its models, methods and data infrastructures, combining established scientific procedures with new approaches to data analysis and AI-supported evaluation.Our scenarios and projections are not predictions of the future. They illustrate how developments may change under different assumptions. We therefore document the underlying assumptions transparently and compare different pathways of development.Our aim is not to bolster political positions. Our aim is to provide our clients with robust foundations for their decision-making.Presenting complex issues, relevant to decision-makingMany issues in politics, business and society are highly complex today. However, scientific analyses only realise their full benefit when their results can be understood and applied.That is why Prognos translates complex research into:clear key messagestransparent causal relationshipsscenarios with different scopes for actioncomprehensible visualisationsnarrative frameworks for different stakeholdersOur many years of experience across numerous topics – such as the economy and labour, or digitalisation and AI – ensure that results do not remain confined to reports, but can actually be put to use.How Prognos uses artificial intelligencePrognos uses artificial intelligence as a tool to support scientific work – we see ourselves as an AI-enabled company, whilst always being guided by our high quality standards and the principle of “human in the lead”.AI helps, amongst other things, with data research, data preparation, pattern recognition and scenario analysis. However, scientific responsibility always remains with our experts.Decisions, assessments and interpretations are not made automatically. Rather, the combination of AI, scientific methods and human expertise enables higher quality and greater efficiency in our analyses.Prognos has particular expertise in these areasPrognos has specific expertise in the following fields:climate, energy and industrial transformationregions and infrastructuresdemographics, the labour market and skilled workerssustainability management and climate resiliencedigitalisation, innovation and artificial intelligenceeconomics and globalisationreducing bureaucracyEuropean programmes, funding frameworks and multi-level governanceWe approach studies from the perspective of their practical application: Which decisions are to be supported? What options for action arise? What long-term consequences can be expected?We therefore examine climate, energy, the economy, the labour market, infrastructure, digitalisation and demography not only individually but also in terms of how they interact.In-depth analysesOur projects range from the local and regional levels through to the federal and state levels and the European Union. In doing so, we also analyse the interactions between these levels.Prognos works for:federal and state ministrieslocal authorities and regionscompaniespublic institutions and funding bodiesbusiness and industry associationstrade unionsfoundationsnon-governmental organisations and civil societyEU Directorates-General and the European CommissionPrognos regularly collaborates with universities, research institutions and specialist companies. These include institutions belonging to the Helmholtz Association and the Fraunhofer Society, as well as consultancy, communications, data and technology partners such as PwC, Guidehouse, Becker Büttner Held and DLR Projektträger.We are frequently called upon by management consultancies when additional evidence and analytical depth are required. At the same time, we collaborate with academic partners when research findings need to be translated into concrete strategies and measures.We also regularly publish overarching analyses – for example on energy issues or family policy – in collaboration with media outlets such as Handelsblatt, Süddeutsche Zeitung, SPIEGEL and Table.Media.What sets Prognos apart from traditional management consultanciesPrognos combines economic research with policy and strategy consultancy. Unlike traditional management consultancies, the focus is not on general management concepts, but on the scientifically sound analysis of specific issues and the implementation of strategies derived from them.Prognos develops scenarios, analyses impacts, assesses risks and outlines options for action. In this way, we support organisations in contextualising developments, basing decisions on sound foundations and strengthening their resilience.In summary: We enable well-informed decisions for a future worth living.FAQs about PrognosWhat is Prognos?Prognos is an independent company specialising in economic research, policy advice and strategic consultancy. Since 1959, we have been analysing economic, social and political developments and supporting organisations in making well-informed decisions, actively shaping change and strengthening their resilience to external shocks.Our work combines empirical research, quantitative modelling and strategic consultancy. We develop scenarios, assess the impacts of political and economic measures, and support strategic processes within companies and public institutions. Prognos employs around 250 staff and handles approximately 300 projects per year.When was Prognos founded?Prognos was founded in 1959 by seven professors from the University of Basel as an early think tank. This makes us one of the oldest economic research institutes in Europe.Since its foundation, Prognos has combined academic research with project-based consultancy. At the same time, we have always operated on the market without institutional core funding.Where is Prognos based?We have ten offices: Prognos’s head office is in Basel, the German headquarters are in Berlin and our EU office is in Brussels. In addition, we have offices in other key centres of German and Austrian politics and business: in Bremen, Düsseldorf, Freiburg, Hamburg, Munich, Stuttgart and Vienna.What is Prognos’ area of expertise?We are well versed in all topics that have a long-term impact and influence our future, such as the economy, demography, digitalisation, globalisation, energy and infrastructure. We do not conduct research in the field of internal or external security.Prognos is not a market research, opinion polling or survey institute.What services does Prognos offer?Prognos supports public and private clients with analyses, studies and consultancy services addressing complex future-oriented issues. Our services include, in particular:evaluations of public programmes and funding measuresimpact analyses of policy instrumentsimpact analyses of the economic activities of companies and sectorsscenario and future analysesregional, location and infrastructure analysesskilled labour forecastsstudies, expert reports and calculations for strategic decision-making processesstrategy and transformation consultancyorganisational development and multi-stakeholder processessustainability consultancy and climate resiliencedesign and facilitation of specialist events, workshops, public dialogues and participatory processessupport for strategy and implementation processesEU-related policy analyses, as well as monitoring and evaluation servicesanalyses and strategy development to strengthen organisational and regional resilienceWhat sets us apart: We take a comprehensive view – with in-depth knowledge of both the European and local levels. We carry out our assignments in Brussels and across European countries (primarily Germany, Switzerland and Austria), as well as at federal, state and local levels.Who does Prognos work for?Prognos works for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors. These include:companiesfederal and state ministrieslocal authorities and regionspublic institutions and funding bodiesassociations and social partnersfoundations and non-governmental organisationsEU Directorates-General and the European CommissionPolitical parties are not among our clients. The diversity of our clients helps us to incorporate different perspectives and examine issues from various angles. As we are known in political circles for not adhering to any particular school of thought or party-political orientation, our work is recognised and valued by stakeholders across the entire democratic spectrum.How does Prognos secure commissions?Prognos secures its commissions through various channels. We take part in public tenders, are commissioned directly, or develop research questions in collaboration with clients. Regardless of the method, the same high scientific and methodological standards apply to all projects: the choice of methodology, data basis, analysis and interpretation are carried out independently and in a transparent manner.Is Prognos independent?Yes. Prognos is politically neutral and financially independent. We are not backed by any single funder, political party or interest group. We receive no institutional core funding nor any long-term grants. We finance our work through projects and commissions. In doing so, we only accept commissions where we can uphold our scientific and methodological standards.What methods does Prognos use?Prognos combines qualitative and quantitative research methods.These include:empirical analyses and literature reviewsexpert interviews and surveysstatistical analyseseconomic and sectoral modelseffect and impact analysesscenario and forecasting modelsevaluation proceduresparticipation and engagement formatsOur analyses are based on reliable data sources, scientific standards and transparent documentation of assumptions and methods. Since our foundation, our own technical-economic models have played a central role in our work.How does Prognos differ from other management consultancies?Prognos combines the best of both worlds: we work in a more scientific manner than other consultancies and in a more practice-oriented way than academia.Unlike many traditional management consultancies, our focus is not on developing management concepts, but on the scientifically sound analysis of complex issues and the actual implementation of strategies.Why is Prognos regarded as a renowned provider of policy advice and economic research?over 60 years’ experienceregularly working for federal ministries and public sector clients, as well as large companies, associations and NGOsin-house models and data infrastructuresacademic independenceintegration of research and implementationexperience in evaluation, impact analysis and transformation consultancyinterdisciplinary teamshigh level of acceptance amongst politicians, the business community, associations and civil societystrong media partners such as the Süddeutsche Zeitung, Table.Media, Handelsblatt and DER SPIEGELDoes Prognos collaborate with other organisations?Yes. Prognos regularly collaborates with universities, research institutions and specialist partner organisations. These include, for example, institutions belonging to the Helmholtz Association or the Fraunhofer Society. In addition, we collaborate with business and communications consultancies such as PwC and Becker Büttner Held, as well as with data and technology partners (e.g. DLR Projektträger). Through these collaborations, we bring together diverse perspectives and expertise to tackle complex issues.Many of our leading figures are also actively involved in academic life, for example on scientific advisory boards, juries, professional associations or alumni organisations.How is Prognos’ management structured?Christian Böllhoff has been managing partner of Prognos AG since 2003. Working closely with over a dozen partners, he is responsible for the company’s strategic and operational development. Dr Jan Giller is Chairman of the Board of Directors.Prognos’ parent company is the Holtzbrinck Publishing Group, which – under the guiding principle “Enabling progress, promoting exchange, enriching life” – includes other knowledge-based companies such as Springer Nature, Macmillan and DIE ZEIT.What does the suffix “AG” mean?Prognos AG has its origins and headquarters in Switzerland. There, the public limited company (Aktiengesellschaft, or AG) is one of the standard forms of business organisation – comparable to the GmbH in Germany. Prognos is not listed on the stock exchange. Value creation takes place predominantly in Germany, where the majority of our offices are located.
