The recycling economy faces new challenges. Around 400 million tonnes of waste are generated in Germany annually, by private households, industry, commerce, and the construction industry. Three quarters of this amount is recycled or used for energy purposes; the remaining quantity is dumped. Think, decide, and invest in cycles Recent past has shown: Germany’s dependence on energy and raw material imports must be reduced significantly. The economy requires a secure supply of raw materials, and this should be increasingly based on national and European recycling. There is still a great deal to be done on the way to achieving a truly circular economy: political guidelines will be tightened; attitudes toward products and their use must change; businesses and citizens will be required to sort their waste more carefully than ever before. Long-term megatrends on the one hand and short-term events such as floods, COVID-19, or the “summer of the century,” on the other, give different signals indicating the necessary infrastructures and technologies of tomorrow. Investments in machinery, equipment, and personnel require a precise idea of future developments. Closed product and raw material cycles Linear thinking and action are no longer the yardstick for a sustainable resource economy. The future belongs to the circular economy, which means closed product and raw material cycles. The requirements and expectations for the recycling economy as a supplier of raw materials and energy are rising, and material and market conditions are becoming increasingly complex. But recycling reusable materials has its limits, in terms of the economy, energy, and ecology. Waste that can no longer be recycled can, to a large extent, be used to produce energy, and this includes the pollutants discharged from the recycling processes. In addition, CO2 capture and storage in thermal waste treatment should be considered in the future. Design for Recycling, recycling quotas, the Fuel Emissions Trading Act, the amendment to the Commercial Waste Ordinance: local and private companies need support here and elsewhere. Waste management authorities need assistance with their various waste prevention plans and programmes, improving the collection of recyclables, and formulating measures for zero-waste concepts. We give this orientation on the basis of long-standing waste market analyses. Prognos AG Recycling Economy & Resources: A selection of our services Market analyses and forecasts Strategies and decisions need to be developed based on reliable data and thorough market analysis and forecasts – we can help you with this. Material flow analyses and development forecasts We create the quantitative basis with specific material flow analyses and development forecasts using tried-and-tested bottom-up models. Market trend analysis We investigate market trends and market requirements along the entire value chain. Competitive analysis We analyse the competitive environment and evaluate your strategic positioning in the market. Strategic action recommendations We develop strategic recommendations for action and implementation concepts. Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. German industry’s resilience and sovereignty 2025 | Project German industry is heavily dependent on raw materials and intermediate products from abroad, especially from China. Prognos analysed supply chains and developed recommendations for action. Read more Circular Valley Convention 13. March 2025 | Event Marieke Eckhardt and Tim Bichlmeier will host a stage slot as part of the Green Economy Network.NRW (KNUW) on how innovative recycling solutions from NRW can ensure the sustainable supply of critical raw materials. Read more How far are the regions on the road to a circular economy? 2025 | Project update Prognos has developed a tool for the Circular Cities and Regions Initiative (CCRI) that supports cities and regions in monitoring their circular economy activities. Read more Climate protection potential of the recycling economy 2024 | Project If Germany is to achieve its climate targets, additional efforts will be necessary. We calculated the potential for climate protection in the recycling economy on behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Economy. Read more Everything CO2unts 17. September 2024 | Event The BMUV is hosting the annual conference of the Sustainable Digitalisation Community. Prognos is on site as part of the accompanying research for the GreenTech innovation competition. Read more Industry Conference 2024 26. November 2024 | Event Together with the Alliance for the Future of Industry, the BMWK is organising the Industry Conference 2024, where Michael Astor will present initial interim findings from our study on the resilience and sovereignty of German industry. Read more Status Report on the German Recycling Economy 2024 2024 | Project The 2024 Status Report gives a comprehensive picture of the whole Recycling Economy sector and its future challenges. Read more Circular economy in the northern Netherlands 2023 | Project Three provinces in the north of the Netherlands want to become leaders in the circular economy in Europe by 2025. Prognos examined the current status of implementation. Read more Green transformation of industrial cities 18. January 2024 | Event The workshop is dedicated to the challenges surrounding the green transformation of regions. Prognos EU head Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will report on his experiences with circular industrial cities at EU level in a presentation. Read more Roadmap for thermal waste treatment in Austria 2023 | Project Against the backdrop of the ever-increasing demand for recycled raw materials, the recycling of waste is becoming increasingly important. In this context, Wien Energie AG addressed the ques-tion of the role of thermal waste treatment in the circular economy. Read more Circular Cities and Regions Initiative (CCRI) Conference 8. - 9. November 2023 | Event Hanne Hagedorn and Vera Wechner are participating in the first General Conference of the Circular Cities and Regions Initiative (CCRI). This conference, organized by the European Commission, serves as a platform for stakeholders to exchange ideas on how cities, regions, and their partners across Europe are already harnessing all the energy and ideas to promote the transition to a circular economy and stimulate social innovation. Read more Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials 2023 | Project Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains. Read more EU monitoring framework: Economic aspects of the circular economy 2023 | Project Prognos was commissioned to develop a methodological framework for the collection of economic data on the circular economy, climate change and bioeconomy and its regular automated processing. Read more Ressource efficiency in Bavaria ongoing | Project Efforts to reduce the consumption of resources in the Bavarian economy must be increased. A Prognos study provides information on the status quo and the starting points for savings. Read more Evaluation of the European Green Deal 2025 | Project How effective are EU cohesion and structural policies in driving green change in Europe? We examined this and other questions together with COWI, Milieu and CSIL on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO). Read more Increased climate benefits thanks to European waste management 2022 | Project What contribution does European waste management make to achieving the Paris climate agreement goals? Read more Cost model for the disposal of single-use plastics 2022 | Project Manufacturers will have to pay the costs of collecting and disposing of single-use plastic products through a special levy. We developed a cost model for the Federal Environment Agency. Read more Zero Waste Concept Munich 2022 | Project We supported the Wuppertal Institute in the development of the Zero Waste Concept Munich for Munich’s waste management services (AWM). Read more Comparison of GHG emissions from the use of primary and recycled raw materials for the production of metals 2022 | Project What are the strategic advantages of using recycled raw materials over primary raw materials for the three metals steel, aluminium and copper in terms of climate management? We have demonstrated this for a recycling company by means of product-specific GHG balancing. Read more Circular economy potential for rural development 2022 | Project Equal living conditions in the city and in the country are a federal government goal. We are looking into how the circular economy can contribute to this for the Federal Ministry for Housing, Urban Development and Construction (BMWSB). Read more Accompanying the Circular Cities and Regions Initiative (CCRI) ongoing | Project The CCRI focuses on the implementation of a circular economy in European cities and regions. Prognos is supporting the initiative as a project partner in the associated Coordination and Support Office. Read more Transformation paths for the German steel industry 2022 | Project Producing primary steel in a greenhouse gas-neutral manner – this is the task facing the steel industry. We have created two scenarios for the German Steel Federation. Read more Status Report on Germany’s Closed-Loop Economy 2020 2020 | Project The "Status Report on Germany’s Closed-Loop Economy 2020" provides an up-to-date overview of the sector's activities, economic relevance and future challenges. Read more Waste Management Plan NRW 2021 | Project Prognos waste experts were commissioned by the Ministry of the Environment, Agriculture, Nature Conservation and Consumer Protection of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia to update the 2008 Waste Management Plan. Read more Green Economy Network.NRW ongoing | Project Prognos has been involved in the Green Economy Network.NRW (KNUW) since 2017. It offers players in the environmental industry a platform for exchange and strengthens the market oppor-tunities of companies from NRW. Read more Mineral waste landfill requirements in Saxony, up to the year 2035 2020 | Project On behalf of Saxony’s State Office for the Environment, Agriculture and Geology, Prognos deter-mined how landfill needs will develop up to the year 2035. Read more CIRCTER – Circular Economy and Territorial Consequences 2019 | Project An investigation into the economic structure of the regional Circular Economy in Europe. Read more Housing requirements in Baden-Württemberg 2017 | Project Baden-Württemberg’s housing market is seeing a clear imbalance between supply and demand. Between 2011 and 2015, an “accrued buildings deficit” of 88,000 too few apartments emerged. These are the results of a Prognos study conducted on behalf of L-Bank. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2016 2016 | Project How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2004 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt. Read more Hazardous Waste Management in EU Member States 2015 | Project Support to Member States in improving hazardous waste management based on assessment of Member States' performance. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2010 2010 | Project How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2010 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® Industries 2009 2009 | Project “Prognos Zukunftsatlas® Industries 2009” focuses on the future fields that have potential for a strong increase in value creation over the next five to ten years. Read more Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Dr Jochen Hoffmeister Partner, Director View profile Dr Bärbel Birnstengel Principal View profile About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more