Expertise

Power & Renewables

Achieving global and national climate targets.

The expansion of renewable energies in Germany is central to achieving global and national climate targets. Increasingly renewable electricity generation is the basis for the decarbonisation of the heating market and the transport sector. In the future, energy supply for industry and aviation can also become climate-neutral through the generation of hydrogen and electricity-based energy sources.

Renewable energies in Germany

By now, renewable energies like hydropower, wind energy, photovoltaics, solar and geothermal energy as well as the use of biomass are highly developed and widespread. Technological advances and economies of scale have reduced generation costs: For example, ground-mounted solar and wind power plants have no cost disadvantages compared to fossil power plants. In 2022, renewable energies covered 46 percent of electricity consumption in Germany. In other sectors, the use of renewable energies was less advanced: In the heating market, the share of renewable energies was 17 percent, in transport 7 percent.

Securing the power supply

The transformation of the energy system towards the exclusive use of renewable energies is a major challenge. To secure electricity supply, the future energy system must connect millions of electricity producers, storage facilities and consumers across national borders and react flexibly to different weather situations and demands.

Power & Renewables: A selection of our services

Development and evaluation of energy policy instruments

We evaluate and further develop energy policy instruments and measures (e. g. Renewable Energy, WindSeeG, KWKG, BEHG, hydrogen strategy, sector coupling, PtX, coal phase-out, expansion of renewable energies) with a focus on economic costs, feasibility, CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions, supply security and electricity prices.

Electricity market scenarios and modelling

Based on the Prognos electricity market model we answer key questions related to the future development of the electricity system with regard to electricity generation, CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions, export balance, power plant park, expansion renewable energies and the future electricity market design.

Electricity price forecasts

We provide electricity price forecasts for wholesale electricity prices (base load, peak load, hourly electricity prices) as well as for end-user electricity prices for different consumption cases (private households, trade, industry, or individual use cases like charging prices for logistics companies).

Profitability analyses

We perform profitability analyses for assets (wind onshore, wind offshore, photovoltaics, hydroelectric power plants, CHP plants, renewable heat generation, storage, heat supply plants), mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as well as the calculation of market value factors or capture rates of renewable energies and contribution margins.

Studies and expert opinions

We prepare studies and expert opinions on energy-related topics (security of supply, market design, energy prices, energy and employment, etc.).

Public participation and consultations

We advise our clients on stakeholder participation and acceptance communication.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Electricity price forecast 2023

2023
| Project

In the medium and long term, average wholesale electricity prices are above the 2019/2020 level. Our updated scenarios for the vbw.

Gas balance: Saving efforts must be intensified

2023
| News

If savings continue to be as low as in January and February, the risk of a gas shortage will in-crease in the coming winter.

Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality

2023
| Project

How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we devel-oped scenarios and develop measures.

DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal

ongoing
| Project

How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).

11th Energy Transition Monitoring

2023
| Project

Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals.

Regulation of third-party access to heating networks

2022
| Project

The EU Commission wants to make third-party access to district heating networks mandatory. We assessed the consequences for Germany and the possible contribution to decarbonisation on behalf of the BMWK.

Interview with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung

2022
| News

Energy expert Dr Almut Kirchner talks to the Neue Zürcher Zeitung about the Swiss energy system.

The world negotiates on climate

2022
| News

On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise.

Electricity price forecast

2022
| Project

How will the price of electricity develop over the next few years? A scenario calculation of wholesale electricity prices for the vbw.

Climate-neutral electricity sector 2035

2022
| Project

This analysis for Agora Energiewende shows how the transformation of the German electricity sector can succeed by 2035.

Comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios

2022
| Project

Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios.

Decentralised heat supply in a climate-neutral Germany

2022
| Project

What role does the heat pump play in a 100-percent renewable electricity system compared to hydrogen heating? An analysis for the Climate Neutrality Foundation.

Hydrogen: Energy carrier of the future?

2021
| Project

The journey towards climate neutrality is gaining momentum. Hydrogen is a key building block to achieving it.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Climate neutrality & security of supply in the electricity market

2021
| Project

Assessment of the security of supply until 2030 of the scenarios KN2050 and KN2045 from the study "Climate Neutral Germany".

EU’s Global Leadership in Renewables

2020
| Project

Prognos, together with COWI, CEPS, and Capgemini invent, examines Europe's position and competitiveness in global renewable energy value chains.

8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition

2020
| Project

For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

Prognos Charging Report 2020

2020
| Project

The Prognos Charging Report 2020 conducted on behalf of EnBW (Energie Baden-Württemberg) provides an overview of the status quo of charging infrastructure.

Future of th electricity system II

2018
| Project

How can the transition to a power supply based on renewable energies by 2050 be successfully managed? This question is answered by a study for WWF Germany.

Climate Path for Germany

2018
| Project

How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI).

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Marco Wünsch

Principal

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Leonard Krampe

Project Manager

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Inka Ziegenhagen

Senior Project Manager

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Axel Bohn

Vice Director, Head of Planning & Dialogue

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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