13th Energy Transition Monitoring

In 2023 and 2024, Germany took a small step towards achieving the climate protection targets it had set itself. This is the result of our 13th energy transition monitoring which we compiled on behalf of the vbw – the Bavarian Industry Association.

In the area of environmental compatibility, our evaluation traffic light was green for the first time, because greenhouse gas emissions fell significantly. In the case of primary energy consumption, the traffic light even jumped from red to green. In terms of energy affordability and security of supply, however, little has changed.

Small successes in climate protection, stagnation in security and affordability

As every year, we took a close look at four areas of the energy transition in both Bavaria and Germany.

These are the results for 2023 and 2024:

1. Security of supply

• There were only a few power outages in 2023. Germany once again took a leading position in Europe in this respect.
• In 2023, the costs of securing the supply reached the second-highest level ever recorded.
• Grid expansion progressed only slowly.

2. Affordability

• In 2023 and 2024, electricity and gas cost more than before the energy crisis, both for households and for industry.
• The electricity price increases for private households were higher than the increase in consumer prices.
• Wholesale prices fell, but this only reached consumers with a time lag.

3. Energy efficiency & renewables

• Primary energy consumption fell by nine percent in 2023 compared to the previous year, and by a further one percent in 2024. This means that the lowest levels since reunification have been achieved.
• The reasons for this were high energy prices, the increased share of renewable energies and further production declines in energy-intensive industries.
• The expansion targets for photovoltaics were again met, but not those for wind power.

4. Environmental compatibility

• Greenhouse gas emissions continued to fall in 2023.
• The energy industry and transport sector continued to account for the largest shares of emissions, at 35 percent and 26 percent respectively.
• In this area, Bavaria lagged far behind the national average.

The goal: successes beyond the recession

As in last year’s monitoring, the modest successes in 2023 and 2024 are largely due to falling production and economic output. However, the goal should be to implement the energy transition even in an economically prosperous environment. To achieve this, greater efforts must be made in the stagnating areas.

In its energy transition monitoring, Prognos annually examines the extent to which Germany is achieving its energy transition targets and where readjustments are needed. The 13th monitoring was based primarily on data from 2023. Where data for 2024 was available, it was partially included in the assessment.

Links and downloads

To the study (PDF, in German)

To the previous monitorings

Project team: Jana Breitenstein, Andreas Brutsche, Dr Almut Kirchner, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Dina Tschumi, Minh Phuong Vu

Last update: 25.02.2025