The potential for decarbonisation in thermal waste treatment through CO₂ capture technologies

Thermal waste treatment plants (TWTPs) contribute to the safe disposal of non-recyclable waste and to energy generation. However, the process produces unavoidable fossil CO₂ emissions.

In view of national climate targets and the goal of achieving greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045, the decarbonisation of thermal waste treatment is becoming increasingly important. The capture, processing, and utilisation or storage of CO₂ (CCU/S) are a key technical option for this. To date, there has been no systematic, plant-specific assessment of the technical potential, energy integration, regulatory framework, and realistically achievable reduction effects.

Technical potential of CCU/S

On behalf of the German Federal Environment Agency, Prognos is therefore working with Ramboll and Enverum to determine the potential for decarbonising thermal waste treatment in Germany through the use of resource-saving and energy-efficient CO₂ capture and processing technologies.

The study examines both technically realistic capture rates and regulatory and systemic requirements, and on this basis derives recommendations for action for plant operators and the public sector.

In the study, we analyse:

• thermal waste treatment plants in Germany (incinerators and substitute fuel power plants)
• CO₂ capture and processing technologies with a relevant level of technological maturity
• integration of CO₂ capture into existing energy and district heating systems
• regulatory framework conditions for approval, operation and ramp-up
• potential for decarbonisation and negative emissions in the time horizons 2035, 2045 and 2050

Our approach

We are tackling the project in four work packages:

1. Inventory of thermal waste treatment plants
2. Systematic analysis of CO₂ capture and processing techniques
3. Examination of the regulatory framework
4. Potential analysis and recommendations for action

This will result in:

• a robust data foundation on the waste-to-energy landscape in Germany
• a comparative assessment of technically and energetically suitable CO₂ capture concepts
• a transparent presentation of regulatory barriers and potential solutions
• a realistic assessment of national decarbonisation and negative emissions potential
• practical recommendations for a phased ramp-up of CCU/S at waste-to-energy plants

Project team: Dr Bärbel Birnstengel, Sebastian Lübbers, Yanik Moldt, Dr Fabian Muralter, Jutta Struwe

Last update: 14.04.2026