Evaluation of the Climate Protection Programme

Client

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE)

Year

2026

Partner

Öko-Institut, Fraunhofer ISI, ifeu, IREES, GWS, Prof. Dr. Stefan Klinski (HWR Berlin)


How effective are the measures proposed by Germany’s federal ministries for the 2026 Climate Protection Programme?

Prognos and its partners examined the plausibility of the planned climate protection measures and analysed their climate impact. We assessed only the measures proposed by the ministries, not a comprehensive, cross-ministerial climate protection programme.

Our approach

The assessment takes the form of an ex-ante evaluation of individual measures compared to a reference scenario without measures – based on the “with measures” scenario (MMS) from the 2025 Projection Report. The data used consists exclusively of information provided by the ministries from mid-September 2025 onwards.

Our strengths in this project

  • methodological depth in the field of ex-ante quantification of policy measures (bottom-up, top-down)
  • extensive experience in conducting robust evaluations
  • intensive use of our sophisticated modelling environment
  • in-depth understanding of processes in the energy, industry, buildings and transport sectors

Links and downloads

Impact assessment (PDF, in German)

Further information on the climate protection programme (BMWE website, in German)

Project team: Elias Althoff, Alex Auf der Maur, Hannah Bethge, Hans Dambeck, Nora Langreder, Dominik Rau, Nils Thamling, Friedrich Seefeldt, Dr Alexander Piegsa, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen

Last update: 25.03.2026 

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Nils Thamling

Principal

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We combine economic research and strategy consulting for sustainable decisions in politics, business and society. Our robust data, precise analyses and scientifically based findings enable fact-based progress – financially independent, politically neutral. 

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