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Prognoses & Scenarios

What you need.

How many nursing staff will Germany be short in 20 years – with and without increased immigration? What will happen to the euro zone if Chinese economic growth is stronger or weaker than expected? How can we achieve climate targets and what changes are needed to do so?

These are the questions decision-makers turn to Prognos for. Long-term planning requires foundations that help to assess possible developments in the future.


What we offer.

We have been analysing the development of complex systems for over 60 years. On the basis of well-engineered economic models we investigate medium and long-term developments in business and politics. We bring you closer to the future by showing you what your organisation can expect over the next five to 25 years. In addition to monitoring the impacts of technical developments and economic indicators, we review changes in the political and industry environment, assess their effect on relevant target variables, and identify the levers that can be used to shape your future.

Scenarios and prognoses are a methodology for the systematic analysis of complex systems. They always lead to conditional statements and usually provide the most meaningful results when comparing different sets of assumptions. Prognoses are a special category of scenarios in which a high probability of occurrence is assigned to a chosen set of assumptions about framework conditions and development determinants. In principle, it is assumed that the future of complex systems depends on decisions and thus, can be shaped. Scenarios and prognoses do not claim to predict a future with absolute certainty but rather seek to systematically explore the areas of possibility and probability.

Use our prognoses and scenarios for your own strategic planning, anticipate opportunities earlier than others, warn politicians and the public of impending undesirable developments. In short, recognise future developments and act in a timely manner.

Prognoses & Scenarios: A selection of our services

Prognoses and scenarios

Business-as-usual scenarios, strategy scenarios, impact assessments, target scenarios, counter-factual scenarios, forecasts, wild-card scenarios, black-swan scenarios: we translate your questions about the future into scenarios and/or forecast frameworks – if required, together with you, in the context of scenario workshops. We discuss the results of the calculations with you and illustrate them in appropriate formats.

Modelling and documentation

We calculate our scenarios using Prognos’ powerful economic and technical forecasting models, which are tailored to the system under examination and to the question that requires answering. Transparent documentation is a given.

Future and stakeholder processes

We accompany your future or stakeholder processes with scenarios – and vice versa.

Ex-ante evaluation using scenarios

We prepare systematic qualitative and/or quantitative scenario analysis in the context of ex-ante evaluations for the design or calibration of policy instruments.

Our work in this field

Scenarios for calculating the cost of Germany’s transport transition

| Project

What level of investment will be required to ensure a climate-neutral transport sector by 2045? We calculated this on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende, based on three scenarios.

Energy efficiency gap analysis

| Project

Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport has remained relatively stable for the last 20 years. A study for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF) shows how policy can use efficiency measures to counteract this stagnation.

Socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland

| Project

What will Switzerland look like in the future? A welfare state in a fair world or an energy guzzler in fortress Europe? We examine the potential impacts of different scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions.

Alternative transport scenario for Germany

| Project

Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development.

Pension at 63 – Quo vadis?

| Project

Retiring at 63 is very popular. In 2021 alone, more than 270,000 people took the option of early retirement. These were the findings of our study for the INSM.

No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security.

| Project

Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike.

Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+

| Project

What might a climate-neutral energy system in Switzerland look like in 2050? Prognos modelled the Energy Perspectives 2050+ on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Swiss Transport Outlook 2050

| Project

Transport levels will continue to increase in the future. This is shown in the Transport Outlook 2050 produced on behalf of the Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communication (UVEK).

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®)

| Project

In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our economic models we project the coming 25 years.

Energy projections 2030/2050

| Project

On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics, Prognos has determined whether the Federal Government’s climate protection package will be enough for Germany to achieve its climate targets by 2030.

Arbeitslandschaft 2035 - Alternativszenarien und Reformmonitor

| Project

Mit der Studie Arbeitslandschaft beobachtet die vbw in regelmäßigen Abständen die Entwicklung des Fachkräftebedarfs in Deutschland und Bayern. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die bisherigen Erfolge im Bereich der Fachkräftesicherung.

Energy scenarios for the Federal Government Energy Concept

| Project

The energy concept formulates scenario-based guidelines for a clean, reliable, and affordable energy supply.

Feel free to contact us.

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

+41 61 32 73 331

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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