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Prognoses & Scenarios

What you need.

How many nursing staff will Germany be short in 20 years – with and without increased immigration? What will happen to the euro zone if Chinese economic growth is stronger or weaker than expected? How can we achieve climate targets and what changes are needed to do so?

These are the questions decision-makers turn to Prognos for. Long-term planning requires foundations that help to assess possible developments in the future.


What we offer.

We have been analysing the development of complex systems for over 60 years. On the basis of well-engineered economic models we investigate medium and long-term developments in business and politics. We bring you closer to the future by showing you what your organisation can expect over the next five to 25 years. In addition to monitoring the impacts of technical developments and economic indicators, we review changes in the political and industry environment, assess their effect on relevant target variables, and identify the levers that can be used to shape your future.

Scenarios and prognoses are a methodology for the systematic analysis of complex systems. They always lead to conditional statements and usually provide the most meaningful results when comparing different sets of assumptions. Prognoses are a special category of scenarios in which a high probability of occurrence is assigned to a chosen set of assumptions about framework conditions and development determinants. In principle, it is assumed that the future of complex systems depends on decisions and thus, can be shaped. Scenarios and prognoses do not claim to predict a future with absolute certainty but rather seek to systematically explore the areas of possibility and probability.

Use our prognoses and scenarios for your own strategic planning, anticipate opportunities earlier than others, warn politicians and the public of impending undesirable developments. In short, recognise future developments and act in a timely manner.

Prognoses & Scenarios: A selection of our services

Prognoses and scenarios

Business-as-usual scenarios, strategy scenarios, impact assessments, target scenarios, counter-factual scenarios, forecasts, wild-card scenarios, black-swan scenarios: we translate your questions about the future into scenarios and/or forecast frameworks – if required, together with you, in the context of scenario workshops. We discuss the results of the calculations with you and illustrate them in appropriate formats.

Modelling and documentation

We calculate our scenarios using Prognos’ powerful economic and technical forecasting models, which are tailored to the system under examination and to the question that requires answering. Transparent documentation is a given.

Future and stakeholder processes

We accompany your future or stakeholder processes with scenarios – and vice versa.

Ex-ante evaluation using scenarios

We prepare systematic qualitative and/or quantitative scenario analysis in the context of ex-ante evaluations for the design or calibration of policy instruments.

Our work in this field

Pension at 63 – Quo vadis?

| Project

Retiring at 63 is very popular. In 2021 alone, more than 270,000 people took the option of early retirement. These were the findings of our study for the INSM.

No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security.

| Project

Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike.

Energieperspektiven Schweiz 2050+

| Project

Wie kann ein klimaneutrales Energiesystem in der Schweiz im Jahr 2050 aussehen? Für das Bundesamt für Energie hat Prognos die Energieperspektiven 2050+ modelliert.

Schweizerische Verkehrsperspektiven 2050

| Project

Der Verkehr wird auch in Zukunft wachsen. Dies zeigen die Verkehrsperspektiven 2050 im Auftrag des Eidgenössischen Departements für Umwelt, Verkehr, Energie und Kommunikation UVEK.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®)

| Project

In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our economic models we project the coming 25 years.

Energiewirtschaftliche Projektionen 2030/2050

| Project

Im Auftrag des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums hat Prognos ermittelt, ob das Klimaschutzpaket der Bundesregierung ausreicht, um die Klimaziele Deutschlands bis 2030 zu erreichen.

Arbeitslandschaft 2035 - Alternativszenarien und Reformmonitor

| Project

Mit der Studie Arbeitslandschaft beobachtet die vbw in regelmäßigen Abständen die Entwicklung des Fachkräftebedarfs in Deutschland und Bayern. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die bisherigen Erfolge im Bereich der Fachkräftesicherung.

Energieszenarien für ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung

| Project

Das Energiekonzept formuliert szenarienbezogene Leitlinien für eine saubere, zuverlässige und bezahlbare Energieversorgung.

Feel free to contact us.

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

+41 61 32 73 331

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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