What you need. How many nursing staff will Germany be short in 20 years – with and without increased immigration? What will happen to the euro zone if Chinese economic growth is stronger or weaker than expected? How can we achieve climate targets and what changes are needed to do so? These are the questions decision-makers turn to Prognos for. Long-term planning requires foundations that help to assess possible developments in the future. What we offer. We have been analysing the development of complex systems for over 60 years. On the basis of well-engineered economic models we investigate medium and long-term developments in business and politics. We bring you closer to the future by showing you what your organisation can expect over the next five to 25 years. In addition to monitoring the impacts of technical developments and economic indicators, we review changes in the political and industry environment, assess their effect on relevant target variables, and identify the levers that can be used to shape your future. Scenarios and prognoses are a methodology for the systematic analysis of complex systems. They always lead to conditional statements and usually provide the most meaningful results when comparing different sets of assumptions. Prognoses are a special category of scenarios in which a high probability of occurrence is assigned to a chosen set of assumptions about framework conditions and development determinants. In principle, it is assumed that the future of complex systems depends on decisions and thus, can be shaped. Scenarios and prognoses do not claim to predict a future with absolute certainty but rather seek to systematically explore the areas of possibility and probability. Use our prognoses and scenarios for your own strategic planning, anticipate opportunities earlier than others, warn politicians and the public of impending undesirable developments. In short, recognise future developments and act in a timely manner. Prognoses & Scenarios: A selection of our services Prognoses and scenarios Business-as-usual scenarios, strategy scenarios, impact assessments, target scenarios, counter-factual scenarios, forecasts, wild-card scenarios, black-swan scenarios: we translate your questions about the future into scenarios and/or forecast frameworks – if required, together with you, in the context of scenario workshops. We discuss the results of the calculations with you and illustrate them in appropriate formats. Modelling and documentation We calculate our scenarios using Prognos’ powerful economic and technical forecasting models, which are tailored to the system under examination and to the question that requires answering. Transparent documentation is a given. Future and stakeholder processes We accompany your future or stakeholder processes with scenarios – and vice versa. Ex-ante evaluation using scenarios We prepare systematic qualitative and/or quantitative scenario analysis in the context of ex-ante evaluations for the design or calibration of policy instruments. Our work in this field Conversion of the automotive industry: How employment is changing 2024 | Project The automotive industry is undergoing fundamental change. How does this effect employment? And what will it mean for the individual professions? We investigated this on behalf of the VDA. Read more Climate Neutral Germany – From Target Setting to Implementation 2024 | Project How can Germany as an industry location achieve net zero by 2045, whilst still maintaining its competitiveness? This study updates our 2021 calculations made on behalf of Agora Think Tanks. Read more Overall impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation on the German economy 2025 | Project In an expert report for the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, we and GWS have for the first time estimated the economic impact of these three areas. Read more Long-term care financing scenarios 2024 | Project Higher numbers of care-dependent persons and increasing costs - our aging population is putting long-term care insurance to the test. A new analysis shows what the future financial require-ments will be. Read more Climate protection investments for the transformation of the energy system 2024 | Project On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, we calculated the investments that will be required to restructure capital stock in the course of the envisaged net zero transition. Read more Free State of Thuringia’s transition to greenhouse gas neutrality 2024 | Project Using a target scenario, we investigated how Thuringia can achieve its climate goals on behalf of the Thuringian Energy Ministry. Read more Scenarios for calculating the cost of Germany’s transport transition 2024 | Project What level of investment will be required to ensure a climate-neutral transport sector by 2045? We calculated this on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende, based on three scenarios. Read more Energy efficiency gap analysis 2024 | Project Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport has remained relatively stable for the last 20 years. A study for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF) shows how policy can use efficiency measures to counteract this stagnation. Read more Socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland ongoing | Project What will Switzerland look like in the future? A welfare state in a fair world or an energy guzzler in fortress Europe? We examine the potential impacts of different scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions. Read more Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®) ongoing | Project In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our wolrd economy model we project the developments until 2045. Read more Alternative transport scenario for Germany 2024 | Project Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development. Read more Pension at 63 – Quo vadis? 2023 | Project Retiring at 63 is very popular. In 2021 alone, more than 270,000 people took the option of early retirement. These were the findings of our study for the INSM. Read more No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security. 2022 | Project Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike. Read more Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+ 2021 | Project What might a climate-neutral energy system in Switzerland look like in 2050? Prognos modelled the Energy Perspectives 2050+ on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy. Read more Swiss Transport Outlook 2050 2021 | Project Transport levels will continue to increase in the future. This is shown in the Transport Outlook 2050 produced on behalf of the Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communication (UVEK). Read more Climate-Neutral Germany 2045 2021 | Project Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050. Read more Energy projections 2030/2050 2020 | Project On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics, Prognos has determined whether the Federal Government’s climate protection package will be enough for Germany to achieve its climate targets by 2030. Read more Arbeitslandschaft 2035 - Alternativszenarien und Reformmonitor 2013 | Project Mit der Studie Arbeitslandschaft beobachtet die vbw in regelmäßigen Abständen die Entwicklung des Fachkräftebedarfs in Deutschland und Bayern. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die bisherigen Erfolge im Bereich der Fachkräftesicherung. Read more Energy scenarios for the Federal Government Energy Concept 2010 | Project The energy concept formulates scenario-based guidelines for a clean, reliable, and affordable energy supply. Read more Feel free to contact us. Dr Almut Kirchner Partner, Director +41 61 32 73 331 almut.kirchner@prognos.com Go to profile Your name Phone Email address Your message Data protection notice Yes, I consent to Prognos processing the personal data I have provided above in order to best address the request I have made. I can revoke my consent at any time with effect for the future by sending an e-mail to info@prognos.com. You can find further information in our data protection declaration. CAPTCHA Get new captcha! What code is in the image? Enter the characters shown in the image. This security question checks whether you are human and prevents automated spamming. About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more