all projects

Alternative transport
scenario for Germany

Client

Greenpeace, Transport & Environment

Year

2024


The Federal Ministry for Transport and Digital Infrastructure’s (BMDV) transport forecasts form the quantitative foundation for the Federal Transport Plan (BVWP). The BVWP is the central instrument of Germany’s transport infrastructure planning.

The environmental organisations Greenpeace and Transport & Environment have tasked Prognos with modifying selected assumptions from the BMDV transport plan, to enable Germany’s mobility development to progress in a more climate friendly way.

Changed assumptions can lead to changes in demand

The Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMDV) forecasts are made up of 123 premises, 17 of which have been adapted in the context of this study. The study shows that having a more climate-friendly focus in transport policy can lead to changes in transport demand.

This alternative scenario considers both the mobility desires and needs of both the economy and the population.

In the adapted scenario, the following aspects were different compared to the benchmark scenario:

  • decisive interventions in transport services, the regulatory framework, and fiscal instruments
  • the establishment of an infrastructure for sustainable modes of transport to stimulate demand for this type of transport
  • an increasing loss of significance for forms of transport that are harmful to the climate in exchange for more climate-friendly ones

Overall, the scenario shows: higher mobility costs for road travel and better public transport services can reduce the demand for transport via road and increase public transport use.

This, in turn, would habe financial impact – infrastructure policy that is not aligned with the government’s climate goals sets misplaced incentives for consumers, and ties up financial resources that could be better used elsewhere. 

Our approach

The project is based on a critical review of all the premises found in the BMDV transport forecasts. From the total 123 premises, we specifically selected 17 that are considered to have potential in the current climate context and then, in collaboration with the clients, reformulated them.

As a part of this, current discussions as well as real developments (e.g., the implementation of the Deutschland ticket, a majority of the population in favour of speed limits) are assessed. 

These changed framework conditions are thus fed into the Prognos-Transport Demand model to newly calculate the key figures of person and freight transport and their development shown in comparison with the BMDV forecasts.

Links and downloads

Go to study (PDF, in German)

More information on the project (greenpeace.de, in German)

Project team: Sven Altenburg (Head Mobility & Transport), Alex Auf der Maur (Senior Project Coordinator), Andreas Brutsche, Marie-Luise Zwicker

Last update: 12.01.2024

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Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Sven Altenburg

Principal, Head of Mobility & Transport

View profile

Alex Auf der Maur

Senior Project Manager

View profile

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more