Agora Verkehrswende
2024
It is clear that the transport transition will have its price. But what are the actual expenses of the transport sector and how much will have to be invested in vehicles, infrastructure and personnel to ensure a consistent transformation? Prognos examined this very question on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende, using three scenarios.
The study does not contain recommendations for action, but rather outlines a comprehensive picture of the financial burdens and potential savings resulting from the transition to a sustainable and climate-neutral transport system.
What is not considered in the study: Possible costs for individuals that may arise in the transport transition process and that are to be taken into account by policy makers.
The analysis of expenses and costs in the transport sector is based on three scenarios that are used to determine the investment requirements for specific policy paths and the costs they incur.
Expenses includes both private and public payments. For investment expenditure such as vehicles, trains or loading and transport infrastructure, both expenses and costs are taken into account. The costs are calculated as annuities, which means that the expenses are spread over the life of the goods with interest. Capital goods are therefore distinguished in terms of expenses and costs, while running costs – such as energy, personnel and maintenance costs – only take into account the expenses incurred in the year in question. All expenses and costs are based on 2022 prices, adjusted according to inflation.
Reference scenario: Based on current policy and foreseeable developments without additional instruments.
Target scenario 1: assumes comprehensive and decisive measures are taken immediately to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from transport with the aim of hitting the 2045 climate objective.
Target scenario 2: also pursues the goal of climate neutrality by 2045, but action is delayed. In this scenario climate protection measures are not implemented until after 2030.
A key result of the scenario analysis is that significant savings in greenhouse gas emissions are generally possible without incurring additional economic costs.
The transport transition is associated with higher costs for rail infrastructure, electric vehicles and personnel in public transport. However, this is offset by lower overall expenditure on energy, road vehicles, maintenance costs, efficiency gains and, last but not least, lower burdens due to the climate impact of transport.
The reference scenario is based on the “With further measures” scenario from the Federal Environment Agency for Germany’s Projection Report 2023. Target scenario 1 is based on the Climate-Neutral Germany 2045 project.
All scenarios were calculated using the Prognos TEMPO model and are based on the same traffic trends and framework data. This means that the scenarios assume no mobility restrictions – either for people or for goods. In all scenarios, transport performance increases to around 1,230 billion passenger kilometres by 2035 and then declines slightly by 2045 due to demographic developments.
The difference between the scenarios consists of the development of the modal split and thus the distribution of means of transport. In the two target scenarios, there is a significant shift from road to rail transport.
The costs from the transport scenarios were derived from the analysis of various studies, as well as technical discussions and workshops with experts.
Download study (PDF)
Q&A (in German)
Further information at Agora Verkehrswende
Project team: Alex Auf der Maur, Andreas Brutsche, Tim Trachsel, Marie-Luise Zwicker
Latest update: 13.05.2024
Press enquiries
All enquiries are to be directed to Agora Verkehrswende:
E-mail: info@agora-verkehrswende.de | Telephone: +49 (0 ) 30 7001435 -000
Senior Project Manager
Project Manager
Since 2016, Prognos’ management consulting team has been helping compile the Digital State trend report in cooperation with Behörden Spiegel. Each year the report is devoted to another forward-looking trend topic for public administration.
How do public IT service providers and public administrations work together? For the 2026 Trend Report, we examined the role IT service providers play in modernising public administration.
Energy prices remain high, and the expansion of renewable energies continues to fall short of targets: this is shown by our 14th Energy Transition Monitoring report, which we compiled on behalf of the vbw.
Prognos supports the German Federal Environment Agency in underpinning the National Circular Economy Strategy with concrete measures, priorities and a robust monitoring system.
Methane emissions from landfills are an often underestimated climate challenge. On commission by Kanadevia Inova, we investigated how these emissions develop over time and what levels they reach.
For DB Regio, we calculated three scenarios showing how autonomous driving technologies could impact public transport economically, ecologically and socially.
Prognos has been providing communications support for the network expansion of distribution network operator Schleswig-Holstein Netz since 2006.
The Talent Booster Mechanism supports eleven EU regions that are suffering from a decline in the working-age population and a low proportion of university graduates. The first pillar has been successfully implemented.
A shrinking workforce, digitalisation and decarbonisation: Prognos examined the specific effects of global trends on regional labour markets.
The results of the OVERLAP project show that demographic changes, digital transformation and the need for a green transition are simultaneously affecting regions across the EU.
We combine economic research and strategy consulting for sustainable decisions in politics, business and society. Our robust data, precise analyses and scientifically based findings enable fact-based progress – financially independent, politically neutral.
