Scenarios for calculating the cost of Germany’s transport transition
Agora Verkehrswende
2024
It is clear that the transport transition will have its price. But what are the actual expenses of the transport sector and how much will have to be invested in vehicles, infrastructure and personnel to ensure a consistent transformation? Prognos examined this very question on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende, using three scenarios.
The study does not contain recommendations for action, but rather outlines a comprehensive picture of the financial burdens and potential savings resulting from the transition to a sustainable and climate-neutral transport system.
What is not considered in the study: Possible costs for individuals that may arise in the transport transition process and that are to be taken into account by policy makers.
The analysis of expenses and costs in the transport sector is based on three scenarios that are used to determine the investment requirements for specific policy paths and the costs they incur.
Expenses includes both private and public payments. For investment expenditure such as vehicles, trains or loading and transport infrastructure, both expenses and costs are taken into account. The costs are calculated as annuities, which means that the expenses are spread over the life of the goods with interest. Capital goods are therefore distinguished in terms of expenses and costs, while running costs – such as energy, personnel and maintenance costs – only take into account the expenses incurred in the year in question. All expenses and costs are based on 2022 prices, adjusted according to inflation.
Reference scenario: Based on current policy and foreseeable developments without additional instruments.
Target scenario 1: assumes comprehensive and decisive measures are taken immediately to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from transport with the aim of hitting the 2045 climate objective.
Target scenario 2: also pursues the goal of climate neutrality by 2045, but action is delayed. In this scenario climate protection measures are not implemented until after 2030.
A key result of the scenario analysis is that significant savings in greenhouse gas emissions are generally possible without incurring additional economic costs.
The transport transition is associated with higher costs for rail infrastructure, electric vehicles and personnel in public transport. However, this is offset by lower overall expenditure on energy, road vehicles, maintenance costs, efficiency gains and, last but not least, lower burdens due to the climate impact of transport.
The reference scenario is based on the “With further measures” scenario from the Federal Environment Agency for Germany’s Projection Report 2023. Target scenario 1 is based on the Climate-Neutral Germany 2045 project.
All scenarios were calculated using the Prognos TEMPO model and are based on the same traffic trends and framework data. This means that the scenarios assume no mobility restrictions – either for people or for goods. In all scenarios, transport performance increases to around 1,230 billion passenger kilometres by 2035 and then declines slightly by 2045 due to demographic developments.
The difference between the scenarios consists of the development of the modal split and thus the distribution of means of transport. In the two target scenarios, there is a significant shift from road to rail transport.
The costs from the transport scenarios were derived from the analysis of various studies, as well as technical discussions and workshops with experts.
Download study (PDF)
Q&A (in German)
Further information at Agora Verkehrswende
Project team: Alex Auf der Maur, Andreas Brutsche, Tim Trachsel, Marie-Luise Zwicker
Latest update: 13.05.2024
Press enquiries
All enquiries are to be directed to Agora Verkehrswende:
E-mail: info@agora-verkehrswende.de | Telephone: +49 (0 ) 30 7001435 -000
Senior Project Manager
Project Manager
Prognos examined for the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Labor, Energy and Climate Protection of the State of Brandenburg what role CO2 capture, usage and storage could play in the state.
The Hanseatic City of Hamburg has the smallest ERDF programme in Germany. Prognos reviewed whether the programme objectives are being achieved and whether adjustments are necessary.
Bavarian industry requires large quantities of raw materials. Our study shows how critical materials can be used efficiently and important savings potential identified.
Prognos supports the CEDIS3 project. The aim is to enable national and regional stakeholders in Turkey to develop and implement viable strategies for smart specialisation.
Prognos and bridgingIT developed a concept for future internal sustainability management for a customer in the municipal energy sector.
What impact do global crises have on regional labour markets? The 15th issue of TerritoriALL magazine reports on the OVERLAP project carried out by Prognos.
Prognos is supporting the North Rhine-Westphalian Ministry of the Environment in organising, implementing and establishing the world's first trade exhibition for the climate adaptation industry.
The Public Sector Loan Facility is an EU financial instrument to ensure a socially just transition to climate neutrality in the regions. Prognos and t33 srl evaluated the instrument.
German industry is heavily dependent on raw materials and intermediate products from abroad, especially from China. Prognos analysed supply chains and developed recommendations for action.
How can innovations be implemented in practice? This is where the BMBF's ‘Innovative University’ funding initiative comes in. Prognos and Fraunhofer ISI are evaluating the programme.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.