Complex & dynamic: economies in constant transition. Modern economies are complex systems in which a broad variety of actors enter relationships of production and exchange. Their actions and decisions change these relationships – usually on a continuous basis, but sometimes suddenly. New business models conquer the market, technical innovations enable the production of novel goods – or exogenous shocks such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine render the actors' plans obsolete overnight. There is only one constant in modern economies: Change. Economic issues of the future In pursuing their goals, businesses and states must maintain an overview of this dynamic environment – while including the reactions of other actors as part of their decision-making. Moreover, economic (and political) goals are often a long way off in the future. What political measures stimulate business growth and prosperity? Which are the industries of the future? What are the intended and unintended effects of stimulus packages? Which country or region has the best conditions for long-term investments? Making long-term strategic decisions Entrepreneurial and political actions have consequences: They can affect individual actors, industries or sectors, even the economy as a whole. A long-term vision is required to make well-founded strategic decisions. Social developments that are emerging today will have a broad impact tomorrow, the heterogeneous dynamics of (de-)globalisation, demographic shifts, new technologies – these are all key components of future framework conditions in which the actors must position themselves. Macroeconomics: A selection of our services Preparation, evaluation, and econometric analysis We support decision-makers by preparing and analysing national and international statistics and data. Economic analysis We demonstrate the economic relationships between the variables considered based on statistical and econometric analyses. We create scenarios using our proven Prognos models. They show the consequences of business and political decisions for different actors (sectors, regions, households) and the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively. Model-based forecasts By means of model-based forecasts, we illustrate the today foreseeable, demographic and economic dynamics of the future. Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. Industry Conference 2024 26. November 2024 | Event Together with the Alliance for the Future of Industry, the BMWK is organising the Industry Conference 2024, where Michael Astor will present initial interim findings from our study on the resilience and sovereignty of German industry. Read more Germany Potential Index: Digitalisation to counter the skilled-worker shortage 2024 | Project The skilled-worker shortage is only due to get worse in the future. Our Potential Index shows: Increased digitalisation can help to cushion the negative consequences of the skilled-worker shortage in Germany. Read more Climate protection investments for the transformation of the energy system 2024 | Project On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, we calculated the investments that will be required to restructure capital stock in the course of the envisaged net zero transition. Read more Guest article in SPIEGEL: How Europe's economy can catch up with the USA and China 2024 | Expertise A race to catch up - this is what Europe needs if it is not to be left behind by the USA and China. In the SPIEGEL guest article, Christian Böllhoff calls for a new match plan with clear priorities for the new EU legislative period. Read more Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®) ongoing | Project In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our wolrd economy model we project the developments until 2045. Read more Significance of the German economy for Europe 2024 | Project Growth in the German economy benefits the whole of Europe. Our study for the vbw shows that this is due to the size of the economy and its strong foreign trade networks. Read more Study on Poverty and income inequality in the context of the digital transformation 2024 | Project The study for the European Commission examines the impact of digitalisation on the employment situation in the individual member states as well as on the EU economy as a whole. Read more Guest article in WirtschaftsWoche: "Move Europe - it's urgent!" 2024 | Expertise In his guest article "Move Europe - it's urgent!" in WirtschaftsWoche, Christian Böllhoff calls for Europe to reposition itself geo-economically in order to strengthen its position between the economic giants USA and China. Read more Germany: Industry sectors put to the test 2024 | Expertise Mechanical engineering, the automotive industry, pharmaceuticals: In which sectors is Germany still a leader? On behalf of the Handelsblatt, we examined how successfully Germany is holding its own against its international competitors. Read more Future-proof strategies for Europe 2024 | Project Germany and Europe are trying to find their place in the New World Order. Prognos examined four foreign trade strategies for the vbw. Read more Five challenges: How Europe remains competitive in the future 2024 | Expertise What needs to happen for Europe to survive in global competition? We analysed this at the “12 Minutes Europe – Meeting Global Challenges” event organised by the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber. Read more Ludwig-Erhard-Gipfel 17. - 19. April 2024 | Event Christian Böllhoff, CEO of Prognos, discusses the topic of (de)globalization at the Ludwig Erhard Summit with host Dr Wolfram Weimer. Read more The invisible value of care work 2024 | Expertise 72 billion hours: That is how many unpaid care work hours are performed in Germany, annually, by women. In a new paper, we show the value of unpaid care work and how unevenly it is dis-tributed between men and women. Read more Innovation Index Germany 2023 2024 | Project Once again, Prognos has compiled the Innovation Index Germany on behalf of the Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications. The index quantifies the impact the expansion of Germany’s digital infrastructure has had on its innovation strength. Read more Regional purchasing power of pensions 2023 | Project Where in Germany is retirement particularly cheap and where has it become more expensive than average? Prognos examined this for the German Insurance Industry Association. Read more Value added of German pharmaceutical exports 2023 | Project Compared to other export sectors, German pharmaceutical exports show above-average levels of innovation and value-added intensity. However, the industry is falling behind in the global re-search competition. This is shown by a new study commissioned by Roche. Read more New procurement markets for the Bavarian economy 2023 | Project New procurement markets can help increase the resilience and efficiency of the German and Bavarian supply chains. The study quantifies the current procurement markets and those still yet to be further exploited. Read more Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials 2023 | Project Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains. Read more The future of the automotive industry in Saarland ongoing | Project The automotive industry continues to undergo fundamental change worldwide. How does this transformation affect the Saarland economy? Read more Increased gas prices and gas price brakes 2023 | Project A study for the vbw on the impact of the gas price brake for Bavarian companies. Read more Effects of deglobalisation on Germany and Europe 2023 | Project Increasing geopolitical tensions are endangering the world trading system. On behalf of the vbw, Prognos investigated possible consequences for the economy in Germany and the EU. Read more Article in "Die Volkswirtschaft": EU reaction to electricity prices 2023 | Expertise The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things. Read more Where does Germany's economy really stand? 2023 | Company news Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer. Read more Evaluation of the federal grants to GTAI 2022 | Project The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively. Read more Purpose Economy model 2023 | Project Could purpose become the model for business and society? We investigated this as part of our work for the Future Office and compared it with other scenarios. Read more Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany 2022 | Project A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes. Read more In danger: Objectives of the “Ampel-Koalition” 2023 | New project A short new analysis shows to what extent the shortage of skilled workers threatens the central political projects of the Federal Government. Read more Was it the West’s intention to isolate Russia economically? It did not succeed. 2023 | Expertise Our new analysis shows: Trade with Russia has by no means completely collapsed. Read more Ressource efficiency in Bavaria ongoing | Project Efforts to reduce the consumption of resources in the Bavarian economy must be increased. A Prognos study provides information on the status quo and the starting points for savings. Read more Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors 2023 | Project One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages. Read more Accelerated climate protection does pay off 2023 | Project If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM. Read more Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein ongoing | Project How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation? Read more Germany’s business model 2023 2023 | Project Why politicians and companies need to act consistently - and how they can do so. Joint study with BayernLB. Read more Are globalization and Germany’s business model on the way out? Why policymakers and companies need to act decisively – and how they can ensure future success. Joint study with BayernLB. Read more Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households 2022 | Project Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package. Read more The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany 2022 | Project Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy. Read more Benefits of Covid testing for the Swiss economy and the healthcare system 2022 | Project Testing for Covid interrupted chains of infection, relieved the burden on the health system, and supported the economy. We quantified these effects for Roche Diagnostics Switzerland. Read more Resilient supply chains in the EU 2022 | Project What are possible solutions when supply chains are disrupted due to external shocks? A survey conducted for the European Commission as part of the European Cluster Collaboration Platform provides answers. Read more Innovation Index Germany 2022 2022 | Project How does the expansion of the digital infrastructure affect regional innovation strength? The IID.2022 provides clarification. Read more The world negotiates on climate 2022 | Expertise On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise. Read more Poland and Hungary in the EU – an economic success story in danger? 2022 | Project A study of the economic ties between Poland and Hungary with Germany and Bavaria for the vbw. Read more Impact of counterfeit products on global value added 2022 | Project How high are the losses to global value added caused by product and brand piracy? We calculated this as a contribution to a study. Read more No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security. 2022 | Project Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike. Read more Gas shortfall less than expected, prices remain high 2022 | Project update The gas reservoirs are full, and gas shortages are likely to be significantly less of a problem than feared. However, high gas prices have become almost too expensive for some companies to pay. Read more Green finance's contribution to achieving climate neutrality in Germany 2022 | Project What is the public share of climate protection investment? An investigation for the KfW. Read more Status of the gas supply 2022 | Project update What is the latest on the gas supply in Germany? How high is demand? How high are gas storage levels? What would the damage be to the German economy if delivery failed completely? Read more Estimation of costs resulting from climate change in Germany 2023 | Project Heatwave, drought, floods – for the BMWK and BMUV we have systematically combined the quantifiable costs of extreme weather events in Germany since 2000 and supplemented them with detailed studies. Read more Halt to Russian gas supply – consequences for German industry 2022 | Project A new scenario commissioned by the vbw (Bavarian Industry Association) shows what German industry could face if Russia stopped supplying gas. Read more The Swiss-European economic success story in danger 2022 | Project In the absence a framework agreement, the temporary agreements between the EU and Switzerland will gradually expire. Our study for the Bavarian Industry Association (vbw) determines the possible economic consequences. Read more The importance of the German economy for the EU 2022 | Project Through intensive trade relations with EU states, the German economy is an important driver of economic development in the EU. Read more Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Dr Oliver Ehrentraut Partner, Director, Head of Economics Division View profile About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more