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Macroeconomics

Complex & dynamic: economies in constant transition.

Modern economies are complex systems in which a broad variety of actors enter relationships of production and exchange. Their actions and decisions change these relationships – usually on a continuous basis, but sometimes suddenly. New business models conquer the market, technical innovations enable the production of novel goods – or exogenous shocks such as pandemics render the actors' plans obsolete overnight. There is only one constant in modern economies: Change.

Economic issues of the future

In pursuing their goals, businesses and states must maintain an overview of this dynamic environment – while including the reactions of other actors as part of their decision-making. Moreover, economic (and political) goals are often a long way off in the future.

  • What political measures stimulate business growth and prosperity?
  • Which are the industries of the future?
  • What are the intended and unintended effects of stimulus packages?
  • Which country or region has the best conditions for long-term investments?

Making long-term strategic decisions

Entrepreneurial and political actions have consequences: They can affect individual actors, industries or sectors, even the economy as a whole. A long-term vision is required to make well-founded strategic decisions. Social developments that are emerging today will have a broad impact tomorrow, the heterogeneous dynamics of globalisation, demographic shifts, new technologies – these are all key components of future framework conditions in which the actors must position themselves.

Macroeconomics: A selection of our services

Preparation, evaluation and econometric analysis

We support decision-makers by preparing, evaluating and econometrically analysing national and international statistics and data.

Economic Model Development

Our proven Prognos models are constantly improved and can be adapted flexibly to the respective issue.

Model-based Analyses

We use our Prognos models to calculate economic scenarios. The scenarios highlight the consequences of entrepreneurial and political decisions on different actors (industries, regions, households) and on the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively.

Long-term projections

Our long-term projections illustrate demographic and economic dynamics of the future already foreseeable today.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

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Evaluation of the cluster initiatives

2021

For the EU Commission, we evaluate the EU cluster programmes together with CSES and IDEA Consulting Group.

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Germany's Global Value-Adding Network

2020

Prognos analysed the value-added interdependencies of the German economy in the years 2000, 2008, and 2014.

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Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®)

2021

In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our economic models we project the coming 25 years.

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“No-deal Brexit” no disaster for the German economy

2019

Scenario analysis: The German economy need no longer fear a no-deal Brexit.

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Main Determinants of Regional Economic Resilience

2019

What was the impact of the great recession on EU regions? Prognos Consultant Neysan Khabirpour contributed to a recent European Commission Working Paper.

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Globalization of the german automotive industry

2019

A policy brief for the Bertelsmann Stiftung uses the example of the German automotive industry to show the extent to which other countries directly and indirectly contribute value added to the production of this industry.

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Germany Report 2025 2035 2045

2018

Germany will become more global, more digital, greener and older in the next 30 years. This is shown by Prognos Deutschland Report from 2018/2019.

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Globalization report 2018

2018

Building on the two previous studies, the ‘Globalisation Report 2018’ examines to what extent the world's 42 most important economies have benefited from globalization in the past.

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Importance of the German Economy for Europe

2018

The study shows: A strong German economy creates value-added and employment in Europe.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr. Oliver Ehrentraut

Head of the Economics Department, Partner, Director

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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