Expertise

Macroeconomics

Complex & dynamic: economies in constant transition.

Modern economies are complex systems in which a broad variety of actors enter relationships of production and exchange. Their actions and decisions change these relationships – usually on a continuous basis, but sometimes suddenly. New business models conquer the market, technical innovations enable the production of novel goods – or exogenous shocks such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine render the actors' plans obsolete overnight. There is only one constant in modern economies: Change.

Economic issues of the future

In pursuing their goals, businesses and states must maintain an overview of this dynamic environment – while including the reactions of other actors as part of their decision-making. Moreover, economic (and political) goals are often a long way off in the future.

  • What political measures stimulate business growth and prosperity?
  • Which are the industries of the future?
  • What are the intended and unintended effects of stimulus packages?
  • Which country or region has the best conditions for long-term investments?

Making long-term strategic decisions

Entrepreneurial and political actions have consequences: They can affect individual actors, industries or sectors, even the economy as a whole. A long-term vision is required to make well-founded strategic decisions. Social developments that are emerging today will have a broad impact tomorrow, the heterogeneous dynamics of (de-)globalisation, demographic shifts, new technologies – these are all key components of future framework conditions in which the actors must position themselves.

Macroeconomics: A selection of our services

Preparation, evaluation, and econometric analysis

We support decision-makers by preparing and analysing national and international statistics and data.

Economic analysis

We demonstrate the economic relationships between the variables considered based on statistical and econometric analyses. We create scenarios using our proven Prognos models. They show the consequences of business and political decisions for different actors (sectors, regions, households) and the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively.

Model-based forecasts

By means of model-based forecasts, we illustrate the today foreseeable, demographic and economic dynamics of the future.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

The future of the automotive industry in Saarland

ongoing
| Project

The automotive industry continues to undergo fundamental change worldwide. How does this transformation affect the Saarland economy?

Increased gas prices and gas price brakes

2023
| Project

A study for the vbw on the impact of the gas price brake for Bavarian companies.

Effects of deglobalisation on Germany and Europe

2023
| Project

Increasing geopolitical tensions are endangering the world trading system. On behalf of the vbw, Prognos investigated possible consequences for the economy in Germany and the EU.

Article in "Die Volkswirtschaft": EU reaction to electricity prices

2023
| News

The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things.

Where does Germany's economy really stand?

2023
| News

Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer.

Evaluation of the federal grants to GTAI

2022
| Project

The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively.

Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany

2022
| Project

A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes.

Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors

2023
| Project

One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages.

Accelerated climate protection does pay off

2023
| Project

If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM.

Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

ongoing
| Project

How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation?

Germany’s business model 2023

2023
| Project

Why politicians and companies need to act consistently - and how they can do so. Joint study with BayernLB.

Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households

2022
| Project

Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package.

The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany

2022
| Project

Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy.

Resilient supply chains in the EU

2022
| Project

What are possible solutions when supply chains are disrupted due to external shocks? A survey conducted for the European Commission as part of the European Cluster Collaboration Platform provides answers.

Innovation Index Germany

2022
| Project

How does the expansion of the digital infrastructure affect regional innovation strength? The IID.2022 provides clarification.

The world negotiates on climate

2022
| News

On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise.

Poland and Hungary in the EU – an economic success story in danger?

2022
| Project

A study of the economic ties between Poland and Hungary with Germany and Bavaria for the vbw.

Impact of counterfeit products on global value added

2022
| Project

How high are the losses to global value added caused by product and brand piracy? We calculated this as a contribution to a study.

No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security.

2022
| Project

Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike.

Gas shortfall less than expected, prices remain high

2022
| News

The gas reservoirs are full, and gas shortages are likely to be significantly less of a problem than feared. However, high gas prices have become almost too expensive for some companies to pay.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Oliver Ehrentraut

Partner, Director, Head of Economics Division

View profile

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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