Complex & dynamic: economies in constant transition.

Modern economies are complex systems in which a broad variety of actors enter relationships of production and exchange. Their actions and decisions change these relationships – usually on a continuous basis, but sometimes suddenly. New business models conquer the market, technical innovations enable the production of novel goods – or exogenous shocks such as pandemics render the actors' plans obsolete overnight. There is only one constant in modern economies: Change.

Economic issues of the future

In pursuing their goals, businesses and states must maintain an overview of this dynamic environment – while including the reactions of other actors as part of their decision-making. Moreover, economic (and political) goals are often a long way off in the future.

  • What political measures stimulate business growth and prosperity?
  • Which are the industries of the future?
  • What are the intended and unintended effects of stimulus packages?
  • Which country or region has the best conditions for long-term investments?

Making long-term strategic decisions

Entrepreneurial and political actions have consequences: They can affect individual actors, industries or sectors, even the economy as a whole. A long-term vision is required to make well-founded strategic decisions. Social developments that are emerging today will have a broad impact tomorrow, the heterogeneous dynamics of globalisation, demographic shifts, new technologies – these are all key components of future framework conditions in which the actors must position themselves.

Macroeconomics: A selection of our services

Preparation, evaluation and econometric analysis

We support decision-makers by preparing, evaluating and econometrically analysing national and international statistics and data.

Economic Model Development

Our proven Prognos models are constantly improved and can be adapted flexibly to the respective issue.

Model-based Analyses

We use our Prognos models to calculate economic scenarios. The scenarios highlight the consequences of entrepreneurial and political decisions on different actors (industries, regions, households) and on the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively.

Long-term projections

Our long-term projections illustrate demographic and economic dynamics of the future already foreseeable today.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Mann im Lager, der am Telefon ist und auf einen Computer schaut

Cluster Initiatives Follow-up

| Project

For the European Commission, we evaluated the impact of the EU cluster initiatives

Containerschiff fährt über den Ozean

Success model of the German economy put to the test

| Project

The globalisation dynamic is stagnating worldwide. In a study, Prognos develops new growth strategies for the export-oriented German economy.

Ein Mann öffnet sein Geschäft. Auf einem grünen Schild steht "Geöffnet"

Economic development in Germany and Bavaria until 2040

| Project

Bavaria and Germany can make up for the GDP slump caused by Corona by 2022. Prognos prepared a forecast on economic dynamics until 2040 for the vbw.

Eine Ingenieurin und ein Ingenieur arbeiten gemeinsam an einem Laptop.

Evaluation of the cluster initiatives

| Project

For the EU Commission, we evaluate the EU cluster programmes together with CSES and IDEA Consulting Group.

großes Frachtschiff mit Containern beladen fährt an einem Hafen und Hochhäusern dahinter vorbei

Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®)

| Project

In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our economic models we project the coming 25 years.

Personen fahren auf Rolltreppen hoch und runter

Germany's Global Value-Adding Network

| Project

Prognos analysed the value-added interdependencies of the German economy in the years 2000, 2008, and 2014.

Personen fahren auf Rolltreppen hoch und runter

“No-deal Brexit” no disaster for the German economy

| Project

Scenario analysis: The German economy need no longer fear a no-deal Brexit.

Blick aus dem Innenhof in den blauen Himmel

Main Determinants of Regional Economic Resilience

| Project

What was the impact of the great recession on EU regions? Prognos Consultant Neysan Khabirpour contributed to a recent European Commission Working Paper.

zwei LKWs und ein Auto fahren auf einer Autobahn

Globalization of the german automotive industry

| Project

A policy brief for the Bertelsmann Stiftung uses the example of the German automotive industry to show the extent to which other countries directly and indirectly contribute value added to the production of this industry.


Germany Report 2025|2035|2045

| Project

Germany will become more global, more digital, greener and older in the next 30 years. This is shown by Prognos Deutschland Report from 2018/2019.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Oliver Ehrentraut

Head of the economics division, Partner, Director

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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