Complex & dynamic: economies in constant transition. Modern economies are complex systems in which a broad variety of actors enter relationships of production and exchange. Their actions and decisions change these relationships – usually on a continuous basis, but sometimes suddenly. New business models conquer the market, technical innovations enable the production of novel goods – or exogenous shocks such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine render the actors' plans obsolete overnight. There is only one constant in modern economies: Change. Economic issues of the future In pursuing their goals, businesses and states must maintain an overview of this dynamic environment – while including the reactions of other actors as part of their decision-making. Moreover, economic (and political) goals are often a long way off in the future. What political measures stimulate business growth and prosperity? Which are the industries of the future? What are the intended and unintended effects of stimulus packages? Which country or region has the best conditions for long-term investments? Making long-term strategic decisions Entrepreneurial and political actions have consequences: They can affect individual actors, industries or sectors, even the economy as a whole. A long-term vision is required to make well-founded strategic decisions. Social developments that are emerging today will have a broad impact tomorrow, the heterogeneous dynamics of (de-)globalisation, demographic shifts, new technologies – these are all key components of future framework conditions in which the actors must position themselves. Macroeconomics: A selection of our services Preparation, evaluation, and econometric analysis We support decision-makers by preparing and analysing national and international statistics and data. Economic analysis We demonstrate the economic relationships between the variables considered based on statistical and econometric analyses. We create scenarios using our proven Prognos models. They show the consequences of business and political decisions for different actors (sectors, regions, households) and the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively. Model-based forecasts By means of model-based forecasts, we illustrate the today foreseeable, demographic and economic dynamics of the future. Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. The future of the automotive industry in Saarland ongoing | Project The automotive industry continues to undergo fundamental change worldwide. How does this transformation affect the Saarland economy? Read more Increased gas prices and gas price brakes 2023 | Project A study for the vbw on the impact of the gas price brake for Bavarian companies. Read more Effects of deglobalisation on Germany and Europe 2023 | Project Increasing geopolitical tensions are endangering the world trading system. On behalf of the vbw, Prognos investigated possible consequences for the economy in Germany and the EU. Read more Article in "Die Volkswirtschaft": EU reaction to electricity prices 2023 | News The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things. Read more Where does Germany's economy really stand? 2023 | News Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer. Read more Evaluation of the federal grants to GTAI 2022 | Project The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively. Read more Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany 2022 | Project A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes. Read more Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors 2023 | Project One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages. Read more Accelerated climate protection does pay off 2023 | Project If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM. Read more Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein ongoing | Project How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation? Read more Germany’s business model 2023 2023 | Project Why politicians and companies need to act consistently - and how they can do so. Joint study with BayernLB. Read more Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households 2022 | Project Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package. Read more The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany 2022 | Project Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy. Read more Resilient supply chains in the EU 2022 | Project What are possible solutions when supply chains are disrupted due to external shocks? A survey conducted for the European Commission as part of the European Cluster Collaboration Platform provides answers. Read more Innovation Index Germany 2022 | Project How does the expansion of the digital infrastructure affect regional innovation strength? The IID.2022 provides clarification. Read more The world negotiates on climate 2022 | News On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise. Read more Poland and Hungary in the EU – an economic success story in danger? 2022 | Project A study of the economic ties between Poland and Hungary with Germany and Bavaria for the vbw. Read more Impact of counterfeit products on global value added 2022 | Project How high are the losses to global value added caused by product and brand piracy? We calculated this as a contribution to a study. Read more No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security. 2022 | Project Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike. Read more Gas shortfall less than expected, prices remain high 2022 | News The gas reservoirs are full, and gas shortages are likely to be significantly less of a problem than feared. However, high gas prices have become almost too expensive for some companies to pay. Read more Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Dr Oliver Ehrentraut Partner, Director, Head of Economics Division View profile About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more