Complex & dynamic: economies in constant transition.

Modern economies are complex systems in which a broad variety of actors enter relationships of production and exchange. Their actions and decisions change these relationships – usually on a continuous basis, but sometimes suddenly. New business models conquer the market, technical innovations enable the production of novel goods – or exogenous shocks such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine render the actors' plans obsolete overnight. There is only one constant in modern economies: Change.

Economic issues of the future

In pursuing their goals, businesses and states must maintain an overview of this dynamic environment – while including the reactions of other actors as part of their decision-making. Moreover, economic (and political) goals are often a long way off in the future.

  • What political measures stimulate business growth and prosperity?
  • Which are the industries of the future?
  • What are the intended and unintended effects of stimulus packages?
  • Which country or region has the best conditions for long-term investments?

Making long-term strategic decisions

Entrepreneurial and political actions have consequences: They can affect individual actors, industries or sectors, even the economy as a whole. A long-term vision is required to make well-founded strategic decisions. Social developments that are emerging today will have a broad impact tomorrow, the heterogeneous dynamics of (de-)globalisation, demographic shifts, new technologies – these are all key components of future framework conditions in which the actors must position themselves.

Macroeconomics: A selection of our services

Preparation, evaluation and econometric analysis

We support decision-makers by preparing, evaluating and econometrically analysing national and international statistics and data.

Economic Model Development

Our proven Prognos models are constantly improved and can be adapted flexibly to the respective issue.

Model-based Analyses

We use our Prognos models to calculate economic scenarios. The scenarios highlight the consequences of entrepreneurial and political decisions on different actors (industries, regions, households) and on the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively.

Long-term projections

Our long-term projections illustrate demographic and economic dynamics of the future already foreseeable today.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Status of the gas supply

| News

What is the latest on the gas supply in Germany? How high is demand? How high are gas storage levels? What would the damage be to the German economy if delivery failed completely?

Estimation of costs resulting from climate change in Germany

| Project

Heatwave, drought, floods – for the BMWK and BMUV we have systematically combined the quantifiable costs of extreme weather events in Germany since 2000 and supplemented them with detailed studies.

Halt to Russian gas supply – consequences for German industry

| Project

A new scenario commissioned by the vbw (Bavarian Industry Association) shows what German industry could face if Russia stopped supplying gas.

The Swiss-European economic success story in danger

| Project

In the absence a framework agreement, the temporary agreements between the EU and Switzerland will gradually expire. Our study for the Bavarian Industry Association (vbw) determines the possible economic consequences.

The importance of the German economy for the EU

| Project

Through intensive trade relations with EU states, the German economy is an important driver of economic development in the EU.

Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households

| Project

Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package.

vbw-OnlineCongress & Political Dialogue Brussels: The Importance of German Economy for Europe

| Event

Dr Michael Böhmer presents the results of the study "The Importance of the German Economy for Europe" for the first time.

What is at stake for Germany's economy if the world breaks up into blocs

| Project

Our new brief analysis shows effects of deglobalisation on the German economy

Transformation paths for the German steel industry

| Project

Producing primary steel in a greenhouse gas-neutral manner – this is the task facing the steel industry. We have created two scenarios for the German Steel Federation.

What a fierce Omicron wave in China could mean for the German economy

| Expertise

How Omicron is affecting the Chinese economy is currently unclear. A simulation shows: should a massive economic downturn result and production losses occur; this would severely burden economic recovery in Germany.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Oliver Ehrentraut

Head of the economics division, Partner, Director

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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