Expertise

Macroeconomics

Complex & dynamic: economies in constant transition.

Modern economies are complex systems in which a broad variety of actors enter relationships of production and exchange. Their actions and decisions change these relationships – usually on a continuous basis, but sometimes suddenly. New business models conquer the market, technical innovations enable the production of novel goods – or exogenous shocks such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine render the actors' plans obsolete overnight. There is only one constant in modern economies: Change.

Economic issues of the future

In pursuing their goals, businesses and states must maintain an overview of this dynamic environment – while including the reactions of other actors as part of their decision-making. Moreover, economic (and political) goals are often a long way off in the future.

  • What political measures stimulate business growth and prosperity?
  • Which are the industries of the future?
  • What are the intended and unintended effects of stimulus packages?
  • Which country or region has the best conditions for long-term investments?

Making long-term strategic decisions

Entrepreneurial and political actions have consequences: They can affect individual actors, industries or sectors, even the economy as a whole. A long-term vision is required to make well-founded strategic decisions. Social developments that are emerging today will have a broad impact tomorrow, the heterogeneous dynamics of (de-)globalisation, demographic shifts, new technologies – these are all key components of future framework conditions in which the actors must position themselves.

Macroeconomics: A selection of our services

Preparation, evaluation, and econometric analysis

We support decision-makers by preparing and analysing national and international statistics and data.

Economic analysis

We demonstrate the economic relationships between the variables considered based on statistical and econometric analyses. We create scenarios using our proven Prognos models. They show the consequences of business and political decisions for different actors (sectors, regions, households) and the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively.

Model-based forecasts

By means of model-based forecasts, we illustrate the today foreseeable, demographic and economic dynamics of the future.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Guest article in SPIEGEL: How Europe's economy can catch up with the USA and China

2024
| Expertise

A race to catch up - this is what Europe needs if it is not to be left behind by the USA and China. In the SPIEGEL guest article, Christian Böllhoff calls for a new match plan with clear priorities for the new EU legislative period.

Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®)

ongoing
| Project

In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our wolrd economy model we project the developments until 2045.

Significance of the German economy for Europe

2024
| Project

Growth in the German economy benefits the whole of Europe. Our study for the vbw shows that this is due to the size of the economy and its strong foreign trade networks.

Study on Poverty and income inequality in the context of the digital transformation

2024
| Project

The study for the European Commission examines the impact of digitalisation on the employment situation in the individual member states as well as on the EU economy as a whole.

Guest article in WirtschaftsWoche: "Move Europe - it's urgent!"

2024
| Expertise

In his guest article "Move Europe - it's urgent!" in WirtschaftsWoche, Christian Böllhoff calls for Europe to reposition itself geo-economically in order to strengthen its position between the economic giants USA and China.

Germany: Industry sectors put to the test

2024
| Expertise

Mechanical engineering, the automotive industry, pharmaceuticals: In which sectors is Germany still a leader? On behalf of the Handelsblatt, we examined how successfully Germany is holding its own against its international competitors.

Future-proof strategies for Europe

2024
| Project

Germany and Europe are trying to find their place in the New World Order. Prognos examined four foreign trade strategies for the vbw.

Five challenges: How Europe remains competitive in the future

2024
| Expertise

What needs to happen for Europe to survive in global competition? We analysed this at the “12 Minutes Europe – Meeting Global Challenges” event organised by the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber.

Ludwig-Erhard-Gipfel

-
| Event

Christian Böllhoff, CEO of Prognos, discusses the topic of (de)globalization at the Ludwig Erhard Summit with host Dr Wolfram Weimer.

The invisible value of care work

2024
| Expertise

72 billion hours: That is how many unpaid care work hours are performed in Germany, annually, by women. In a new paper, we show the value of unpaid care work and how unevenly it is dis-tributed between men and women.

Innovation Index Germany 2023

2024
| Project

Once again, Prognos has compiled the Innovation Index Germany on behalf of the Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications. The index quantifies the impact the expansion of Germany’s digital infrastructure has had on its innovation strength.

Regional purchasing power of pensions

2023
| Project

Where in Germany is retirement particularly cheap and where has it become more expensive than average? Prognos examined this for the German Insurance Industry Association.

Value added of German pharmaceutical exports

2023
| Project

Compared to other export sectors, German pharmaceutical exports show above-average levels of innovation and value-added intensity. However, the industry is falling behind in the global re-search competition. This is shown by a new study commissioned by Roche.

New procurement markets for the Bavarian economy

2023
| Project

New procurement markets can help increase the resilience and efficiency of the German and Bavarian supply chains. The study quantifies the current procurement markets and those still yet to be further exploited.

Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials

2023
| Project

Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.

The future of the automotive industry in Saarland

ongoing
| Project

The automotive industry continues to undergo fundamental change worldwide. How does this transformation affect the Saarland economy?

Increased gas prices and gas price brakes

2023
| Project

A study for the vbw on the impact of the gas price brake for Bavarian companies.

Effects of deglobalisation on Germany and Europe

2023
| Project

Increasing geopolitical tensions are endangering the world trading system. On behalf of the vbw, Prognos investigated possible consequences for the economy in Germany and the EU.

Article in "Die Volkswirtschaft": EU reaction to electricity prices

2023
| Expertise

The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things.

Where does Germany's economy really stand?

2023
| Company news

Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer.

Evaluation of the federal grants to GTAI

2022
| Project

The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively.

Purpose Economy model

2023
| Project

Could purpose become the model for business and society? We investigated this as part of our work for the Future Office and compared it with other scenarios.

Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany

2022
| Project

A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes.

In danger: Objectives of the “Ampel-Koalition”

2023
|
New project

A short new analysis shows to what extent the shortage of skilled workers threatens the central political projects of the Federal Government.

Was it the West’s intention to isolate Russia economically? It did not succeed.

2023
|
Expertise

Our new analysis shows: Trade with Russia has by no means completely collapsed.

Ressource efficiency in Bavaria

ongoing
| Project

Efforts to reduce the consumption of resources in the Bavarian economy must be increased. A Prognos study provides information on the status quo and the starting points for savings.

Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors

2023
| Project

One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages.

Accelerated climate protection does pay off

2023
| Project

If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM.

Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

ongoing
| Project

How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation?

Germany’s business model 2023

2023
| Project

Why politicians and companies need to act consistently - and how they can do so. Joint study with BayernLB.

Are globalization and Germany’s business model on the way out?


Why policymakers and companies need to act decisively – and how they can ensure future success. Joint study with BayernLB.

Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households

2022
| Project

Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package.

The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany

2022
| Project

Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy.

Benefits of Covid testing for the Swiss economy and the healthcare system

2022
| Project

Testing for Covid interrupted chains of infection, relieved the burden on the health system, and supported the economy. We quantified these effects for Roche Diagnostics Switzerland.

Resilient supply chains in the EU

2022
| Project

What are possible solutions when supply chains are disrupted due to external shocks? A survey conducted for the European Commission as part of the European Cluster Collaboration Platform provides answers.

Innovation Index Germany 2022

2022
| Project

How does the expansion of the digital infrastructure affect regional innovation strength? The IID.2022 provides clarification.

The world negotiates on climate

2022
| Expertise

On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise.

Poland and Hungary in the EU – an economic success story in danger?

2022
| Project

A study of the economic ties between Poland and Hungary with Germany and Bavaria for the vbw.

Impact of counterfeit products on global value added

2022
| Project

How high are the losses to global value added caused by product and brand piracy? We calculated this as a contribution to a study.

No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security.

2022
| Project

Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike.

Gas shortfall less than expected, prices remain high

2022
| Project update

The gas reservoirs are full, and gas shortages are likely to be significantly less of a problem than feared. However, high gas prices have become almost too expensive for some companies to pay.

Green finance's contribution to achieving climate neutrality in Germany

2022
| Project

What is the public share of climate protection investment? An investigation for the KfW.

Status of the gas supply

2022
| Project update

What is the latest on the gas supply in Germany? How high is demand? How high are gas storage levels? What would the damage be to the German economy if delivery failed completely?

Estimation of costs resulting from climate change in Germany

2023
| Project

Heatwave, drought, floods – for the BMWK and BMUV we have systematically combined the quantifiable costs of extreme weather events in Germany since 2000 and supplemented them with detailed studies.

Halt to Russian gas supply – consequences for German industry

2022
| Project

A new scenario commissioned by the vbw (Bavarian Industry Association) shows what German industry could face if Russia stopped supplying gas.

The Swiss-European economic success story in danger

2022
| Project

In the absence a framework agreement, the temporary agreements between the EU and Switzerland will gradually expire. Our study for the Bavarian Industry Association (vbw) determines the possible economic consequences.

The importance of the German economy for the EU

2022
| Project

Through intensive trade relations with EU states, the German economy is an important driver of economic development in the EU.

vbw-OnlineCongress & Political Dialogue Brussels: The Importance of German Economy for Europe

| Event

Dr Michael Böhmer presents the results of the study "The Importance of the German Economy for Europe" for the first time.

What is at stake for Germany's economy if the world breaks up into blocs

2022
| Project

Our new brief analysis shows effects of deglobalisation on the German economy

Transformation paths for the German steel industry

2022
| Project

Producing primary steel in a greenhouse gas-neutral manner – this is the task facing the steel industry. We have created two scenarios for the German Steel Federation.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Oliver Ehrentraut

Partner, Director, Head of Economics Division

View profile

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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