Macroeconomics

The future of the
global economic order

The current global economic order is faltering. What does this mean for Germany and the EU? We have developed various scenarios for the future global economy for the vbw.

German industry’s resilience and sovereignty

German industry is heavily dependent on raw materials and intermediate products from abroad, especially from China. Prognos analysed supply chains and developed recommendations for action.

Evaluation of the Federal Funding for Efficient Buildings (BEG)

On behalf of the BMWK, we evaluate the impact of the BEG in the funding period 2021 – 2025 together with ifeu, ITG, and FIW.

Conference on Industrial Resilience

Michael Astor presents the results of the study on the resilience and sovereignty of the German industry, which we conducted on behalf of the Netzwerk Zukunft der Industrie e. V. (Future of Industry Network). The results will then be discussed by industry representatives.

How dependent are we really on the US and China?

Foreign trade, employment, investment and raw materials: ahead of the new US administration taking office, we analysed for the Süddeutsche Zeitung how dependent our economy is on the US and China.

Skilled workers for the energy transition

How many laborers and skilled workers will Germany need for the green transformation of its economy? We examined this question on behalf of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce.

New procurement markets for the German economy – update 2024

German industry can increase the resilience of its supply chains by sourcing its intermediate products from different countries. We have analyzed these new procurement markets.

New markets for the export sector – 2024 update

Even if the global trade in goods is no longer growing, there are still promising markets for German business. We present 13 potential markets in Asia and Latin America.

A greener economy through green finance

With green finance, greenhouse gases in Austria can be reduced by up to four per cent by 2040 – in the bond market alone. This is the result of our study commissioned by the Ministry for Climate Action.

Conversion of the automotive industry: How employment is changing

The automotive industry is undergoing fundamental change. How does this effect employment? And what will it mean for the individual professions? We investigated this on behalf of the VDA.

Long-term care financing scenarios

Higher numbers of care-dependent persons and increasing costs - our aging population is putting long-term care insurance to the test. A new analysis shows what the future financial require-ments will be.

Industry Conference 2024

Together with the Alliance for the Future of Industry, the BMWK is organising the Industry Conference 2024, where Michael Astor will present initial interim findings from our study on the resilience and sovereignty of German industry.

Germany Potential Index: Digitalisation to counter the skilled-worker shortage

The skilled-worker shortage is only due to get worse in the future. Our Potential Index shows: Increased digitalisation can help to cushion the negative consequences of the skilled-worker shortage in Germany.

Climate protection investments for the transformation of the energy system

On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, we calculated the investments that will be required to restructure capital stock in the course of the envisaged net zero transition.

Guest article in SPIEGEL: How Europe's economy can catch up with the USA and China

A race to catch up - this is what Europe needs if it is not to be left behind by the USA and China. In the SPIEGEL guest article, Christian Böllhoff calls for a new match plan with clear priorities for the new EU legislative period.

Evaluation of the Central Innovation Programme for SMEs (ZIM)

The Central Innovation Programme for SMEs (ZIM) strengthens the innovative power of small and medium-sized enterprises. This is shown by our evaluation for the BMWK.

Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®)

In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our wolrd economy model we project the developments until 2045.

Significance of the German economy for Europe

Growth in the German economy benefits the whole of Europe. Our study for the vbw shows that this is due to the size of the economy and its strong foreign trade networks.

Study on Poverty and income inequality in the context of the digital transformation

The study for the European Commission examines the impact of digitalisation on the employment situation in the individual member states as well as on the EU economy as a whole.

Guest article in WirtschaftsWoche: "Move Europe - it's urgent!"

In his guest article "Move Europe - it's urgent!" in WirtschaftsWoche, Christian Böllhoff calls for Europe to reposition itself geo-economically in order to strengthen its position between the economic giants USA and China.

Germany: Industry sectors put to the test

Mechanical engineering, the automotive industry, pharmaceuticals: In which sectors is Germany still a leader? On behalf of the Handelsblatt, we examined how successfully Germany is holding its own against its international competitors.

Future-proof strategies for Europe

Germany and Europe are trying to find their place in the New World Order. Prognos examined four foreign trade strategies for the vbw.

Five challenges: How Europe remains competitive in the future

What needs to happen for Europe to survive in global competition? We analysed this at the “12 Minutes Europe – Meeting Global Challenges” event organised by the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber.

Ludwig-Erhard-Gipfel

Christian Böllhoff, CEO of Prognos, discusses the topic of (de)globalization at the Ludwig Erhard Summit with host Dr Wolfram Weimer.

The invisible value of care work

72 billion hours: That is how many unpaid care work hours are performed in Germany, annually, by women. In a new paper, we show the value of unpaid care work and how unevenly it is dis-tributed between men and women.

Innovation Index Germany 2023

Once again, Prognos has compiled the Innovation Index Germany on behalf of the Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications. The index quantifies the impact the expansion of Germany’s digital infrastructure has had on its innovation strength.

Regional purchasing power of pensions

Where in Germany is retirement particularly cheap and where has it become more expensive than average? Prognos examined this for the German Insurance Industry Association.

Value added of German pharmaceutical exports

Compared to other export sectors, German pharmaceutical exports show above-average levels of innovation and value-added intensity. However, the industry is falling behind in the global re-search competition. This is shown by a new study commissioned by Roche.

New procurement markets for the German economy

New procurement markets can help increase the resilience and efficiency of the German and Bavarian supply chains. The study quantifies the current procurement markets and those still yet to be further exploited.

Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials

Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.

The future of the automotive industry in Saarland

The automotive industry continues to undergo fundamental change worldwide. How does this transformation affect the Saarland economy?

Increased gas prices and gas price brakes

A study for the vbw on the impact of the gas price brake for Bavarian companies.

Effects of deglobalisation on Germany and Europe

Increasing geopolitical tensions are endangering the world trading system. On behalf of the vbw, Prognos investigated possible consequences for the economy in Germany and the EU.

Article in "Die Volkswirtschaft": EU reaction to electricity prices

The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things.

Where does Germany's economy really stand?

Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer.

Evaluation of the federal grants to GTAI

The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively.

Purpose Economy model

Could purpose become the model for business and society? We investigated this as part of our work for the Future Office and compared it with other scenarios.

Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany

A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes.

In danger: Objectives of the “Ampel-Koalition”

Was it the West’s intention to isolate Russia economically? It did not succeed.

Ressource efficiency in Bavaria

Efforts to reduce the consumption of resources in the Bavarian economy must be increased. A Prognos study provides information on the status quo and the starting points for savings.

Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors

One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages.

Accelerated climate protection does pay off

If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM.

Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation?

Germany’s business model 2023

Why politicians and companies need to act consistently - and how they can do so. Joint study with BayernLB.

Are globalization and Germany’s business model on the way out?

Why policymakers and companies need to act decisively – and how they can ensure future success. Joint study with BayernLB.

Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households

Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package.

The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany

Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy.

Benefits of Covid testing for the Swiss economy and the healthcare system

Testing for Covid interrupted chains of infection, relieved the burden on the health system, and supported the economy. We quantified these effects for Roche Diagnostics Switzerland.

Resilient supply chains in the EU

What are possible solutions when supply chains are disrupted due to external shocks? A survey conducted for the European Commission as part of the European Cluster Collaboration Platform provides answers.