Complex & dynamic: economies in constant transition.

Modern economies are complex systems in which a broad variety of actors enter relationships of production and exchange. Their actions and decisions change these relationships – usually on a continuous basis, but sometimes suddenly. New business models conquer the market, technical innovations enable the production of novel goods – or exogenous shocks such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine render the actors' plans obsolete overnight. There is only one constant in modern economies: Change.

Economic issues of the future

In pursuing their goals, businesses and states must maintain an overview of this dynamic environment – while including the reactions of other actors as part of their decision-making. Moreover, economic (and political) goals are often a long way off in the future.

  • What political measures stimulate business growth and prosperity?
  • Which are the industries of the future?
  • What are the intended and unintended effects of stimulus packages?
  • Which country or region has the best conditions for long-term investments?

Making long-term strategic decisions

Entrepreneurial and political actions have consequences: They can affect individual actors, industries or sectors, even the economy as a whole. A long-term vision is required to make well-founded strategic decisions. Social developments that are emerging today will have a broad impact tomorrow, the heterogeneous dynamics of (de-)globalisation, demographic shifts, new technologies – these are all key components of future framework conditions in which the actors must position themselves.

Macroeconomics: A selection of our services

Preparation, evaluation and econometric analysis

We support decision-makers by preparing, evaluating and econometrically analysing national and international statistics and data.

Economic Model Development

Our proven Prognos models are constantly improved and can be adapted flexibly to the respective issue.

Model-based Analyses

We use our Prognos models to calculate economic scenarios. The scenarios highlight the consequences of entrepreneurial and political decisions on different actors (industries, regions, households) and on the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively.

Long-term projections

Our long-term projections illustrate demographic and economic dynamics of the future already foreseeable today.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Germany’s business model 2023

| Project

Why politicians and companies need to act consistently - and how they can do so. Joint study with BayernLB.

Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households

| Project

Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package.

The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany

| Project

Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy.

Resilient supply chains in the EU

| Project

What are possible solutions when supply chains are disrupted due to external shocks? A survey conducted for the European Commission as part of the European Cluster Collaboration Platform provides answers.

Innovation Index Germany

| Project

How does the expansion of the digital infrastructure affect regional innovation strength? The IID.2022 provides clarification.

The world negotiates on climate

| News

On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise.

Poland and Hungary in the EU – an economic success story in danger?

| Project

A study of the economic ties between Poland and Hungary with Germany and Bavaria for the vbw.

No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security.

| Project

Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike.

Gas shortfall less than expected, prices remain high

| News

The gas reservoirs are full, and gas shortages are likely to be significantly less of a problem than feared. However, high gas prices have become almost too expensive for some companies to pay.

Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

| Project

How many experts will be required for Schleswig-Holstein to implement climate protection measures? What are the key professions for successful implementation?

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Oliver Ehrentraut

Head of the economics division, Partner, Director

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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