Germany Potential Index: Digitalisation to counter the skilled-worker shortage
Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications
2024
23°
Digitalisation can help lessen the negative consequences of the increasing shortage of skilled workers in Germany. Our scenario calculation shows that if digital solutions are more extensively applied in the working context, this could decrease the demand for skilled workers in Germany by up to 1.5 million people.
The Potential Index, compiled on behalf of Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications, calculates the potential of digitalisation for the labour market for each individual district in Germany.
The application of digital technologies and solutions can help reduce the skilled-worker shortage by 2035 across all of Germany's districts and municipalities. But not all tasks across all professions are so easily “digitalised”. Some professions and roles benefit less from the increased efficiency gained by digital support.
There are significant regional differences depending on the respective economic structure. Regions with a more extensively digitalised economic structure, particularly those in the south and the east, will have greater potential for digitalisation in the labour market by the year 2035 than regions in the north and, in some cases, the west.
In order to obtain a realistic image of the potential of digitalisation at district level, we differentiated four application areas: Environment & Mobility, Business, Health & Social as well as Public Administration.
Realising the potential of digitalisation for the labour market would have a tangible positive impact on people across Germany:
We determined how the size of the digitalisation potential for the labour market up to the year 2035, for each of Germany’s districts. The Prognos skilled worker model was used for this, using a measure for estimating substitution potential from the Institute for Employment Research.
With help from artificial intelligence, we outlined the four areas (Environment & Mobility, Business, Health & Social as well as Public Administration) and then mapped the digitalisation potential at district level for each of them.
The opportunities and limitations of increased digitalisation in the working environment were discussed with experts from businesses, research and science and their estimates expanded on. In addition, example calculations were used to show the concrete societal applications of digitalisation.
To the interactive Potential Index (in German)
To the study (PDF in German)
To Q&A (Vodafone Institute website, in German)
Project team: Dr Oliver Ehrentraut, Markus Hoch, Josh Klier, Dr Georg Klose, Philipp Kreuzer, Dr Andreas Sachs, Jonathan-Aton Talamo, Hauke Toborg
Latest update: 23.07.2024
For press enquiries please contact the Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications:
Laura Caspers | Corporate Communications Expert | laurakatryn.caspers@vodafone.com
Project Manager
The Talent Booster Mechanism supports eleven EU regions that are suffering from a decline in the working-age population and a low proportion of university graduates. The first pillar has been successfully implemented.
A shrinking workforce, digitalisation and decarbonisation: Prognos examined the specific effects of global trends on regional labour markets.
The results of the OVERLAP project show that demographic changes, digital transformation and the need for a green transition are simultaneously affecting regions across the EU.
In recent years, Europe has maintained its strong position in the global market for clean energy technologies, but faces growing competition. On behalf of the European Commission, we examined the competitiveness of these technologies.
Germany needs around 166,000 additional full-time places for primary school children by the summer. We are examining how this can be achieved for the Federal Ministry of Education.
The party offers no constructive solutions to any of the current economic challenges. The fact that the Verband der Familienunternehmen is nevertheless opening up to it is dangerous, says Christian Böllhoff in his guest article in Handelsblatt.
How effective are EU cohesion and structural policies in driving green change in Europe? We examined this and other questions together with COWI, Milieu and CSIL on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).
How can smart specialisation be empirically justified and managed? On behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO), Prognos is implementing the S3 Community of Practice (S3 CoP) together with a network of partners.
For the European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion (ESPON), we are investigating how regions can work together more effectively to protect the climate.
The Single Market Programme promotes the EU internal market in order to strengthen it, standardise it and make it more competitive. Prognos was involved in the mid-term evaluation of the programme.
We combine economic research and strategy consulting for sustainable decisions in politics, business and society. Our robust data, precise analyses and scientifically based findings enable fact-based progress – financially independent, politically neutral.
