Prognos article in the European magazine TerritoriALL

The research project ‘Overlapping crises (re)shaping the future of regional labour markets’ (OVERLAP) examines in detail how global crises will affect regional labour markets. Prognos is working on the project on behalf of ESPON, an EU-funded research programme.

The initial findings of the research project were published in an interactive article in the European trade journal TerritoriALL.

On the article ‘Overlapping Crises (Re)Shaping Regional Labour Markets’

The specialist magazine TerritoriALL is the official publication of the ESPON programme (European Spatial Planning Observation Network), which monitors and analyses territorial developments in Europe. It serves as a platform for the exchange of findings, opinions and policy recommendations on European spatial development.

The article presents the initial results of the OVERLAP project in an interactive format. The results are still preliminary and will be further developed and validated in the course of the research project.

The impact of global crises on regional labour markets

The OVERLAP project investigates how demographic, digital and ecological change affects local labour markets. It examines these overlapping challenges in order to better understand their individual and cumulative effects.

The trends have different regional impacts: for example, ecological change is hitting some regions harder than others because shrinking industries are unevenly distributed across the EU. A precise analysis is needed to clearly identify the consequences for regional labour markets and vulnerable groups of workers. To this end, we combine a top-down approach with a bottom-up approach.

The top-down approach, based on our DINOS model, analyses megatrends at country and industry level and transfers their effects to regional levels. The bottom-up approach, led by CeMPA, uses a dynamic microsimulation model to forecast individual life courses. It provides detailed regional insights and tools for scenario analysis and policy decisions.

This article presents the initial results of the project. We present the overall employment forecasts calculated using the top-down approach, followed by more detailed results of the bottom-up approach for Hungary.

More about the OVERLAP project

Project team: Markus Hoch, Neysan Khabirpour, Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer, Philipp Kreuzer, Jan Limbers, Lorenzo Pelizzari

Last Update: 05.05.2025