The end of globalisation as we know it. It was not so long ago that globalisation and increasing transnational cooperation were considered a “law of nature.” In particular, the 1990s and 2000s saw massive increases in cross-border cooperation. Our data shows that the globalisation dynamic has been over for some time. The recent escalation of geopolitical disputes has only made things worse. As a result of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine, economic exchange relationships between Russia and the Western economies have, to a large extent, collapsed. Moreover, the geopolitical conflict between the West and China has intensified – and thus has the potential to seriously disrupt internationalised exchange relationships. New challenges for business and politics Geopolitical considerations have arrived on the agenda for decision makers. Until now, companies have chosen their foreign sales and procurement markets almost exclusively on the basis of economic criteria. Now, geopolitical stability and reliability must also be taken into account. In politics, too, issues surrounding economic exchange relations have tended to dominate intergovernmental relations. Meanwhile, geopolitical – or even military strategic – relationships and dependencies play a more significant role. We see these developments: The completely changed globalisation dynamic has dramatically changed the decision-making framework for business and politics Economic issues will continue to play a significant role in cross-border economic cooperation in the future – for example, regarding foreign growth markets for the German export sector At the same time, geopolitical considerations are becoming more important – for example to the resilience of delivery chains or the predictability of foreign markets Foreign trade openness still has opportunities to offer We provide orientation to businesses and politics in uncertain times. Providing them valuable information that enables them to make decisions with strategic foresight. Because despite the overcast global situation, foreign trade openness still has opportunities to offer, for individual companies and the economy as a whole. (De-)Globalisation: A selection of our services Preparation, evaluation, and econometric analysis We support decision-makers by preparing and analysing national and international statistics and data. Model-based analysis We create economic scenarios using our tried-and-tested Prognos models. They show the consequences of business and political decisions for different actors (sectors or regions) and for the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively. Long-term projections By means of long-term projections, we illustrate the demographic dynamics of the future, already foreseeable today. Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. New markets for the export sector – 2024 update 2024 | Project Even if the global trade in goods is no longer growing, there are still promising markets for German business. We present 13 potential markets in Asia and Latin America. Read more New procurement markets for the German economy – update 2024 2024 | Project German industry can increase the resilience of its supply chains by sourcing its intermediate products from different countries. We have analyzed these new procurement markets. Read more Resilience and sovereignty of German industry ongoing | Project German industry is dependent on raw materials and preliminary products from abroad. On behalf of the Netzwerk Zukunft der Industrie e. V., Prognos analyses the supply chains and provides recommendations for action. Read more Salon M 27. November 2024 | Event At Salon M, a dialogue and networking platform, Prognos CEO Christian Böllhoff will discuss the topic “The Impact of Global Players’ Communication on Shaping a New European Narrative“ with high-profile guests. Read more Moldova Trade Forum 2024 21. November 2024 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will give the keynote speech on ‘Expanding export markets for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)’ at the Moldova Trade Forum 2024. Read more Industry Conference 2024 26. November 2024 | Event Together with the Alliance for the Future of Industry, the BMWK is organising the Industry Conference 2024, where Michael Astor will present initial interim findings from our study on the resilience and sovereignty of German industry. Read more Guest article in SPIEGEL: How Europe's economy can catch up with the USA and China 2024 | Expertise A race to catch up - this is what Europe needs if it is not to be left behind by the USA and China. In the SPIEGEL guest article, Christian Böllhoff calls for a new match plan with clear priorities for the new EU legislative period. Read more Significance of the German economy for Europe 2024 | Project Growth in the German economy benefits the whole of Europe. Our study for the vbw shows that this is due to the size of the economy and its strong foreign trade networks. Read more Web tool: Risk analysis for sustainable supply chains 2024 | Project Prognos develops a tool for an industry association that enables member companies to carry out risk analyses to identify sustainability risks in countries and sectors. Read more Guest article in WirtschaftsWoche: "Move Europe - it's urgent!" 2024 | Expertise In his guest article "Move Europe - it's urgent!" in WirtschaftsWoche, Christian Böllhoff calls for Europe to reposition itself geo-economically in order to strengthen its position between the economic giants USA and China. Read more Future-proof strategies for Europe 2024 | Project Germany and Europe are trying to find their place in the New World Order. Prognos examined four foreign trade strategies for the vbw. Read more Guidance for CSRD-compliant materiality analysis 2023 | Project An industry association commissioned us to create a guide to successfully implement the materiality analysis for its member companies in accordance with the new European CSRD directive. Read more Ludwig-Erhard-Gipfel 17. - 19. April 2024 | Event Christian Böllhoff, CEO of Prognos, discusses the topic of (de)globalization at the Ludwig Erhard Summit with host Dr Wolfram Weimer. Read more New procurement markets for the German economy 2023 | Project New procurement markets can help increase the resilience and efficiency of the German and Bavarian supply chains. The study quantifies the current procurement markets and those still yet to be further exploited. Read more Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials 2023 | Project Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains. Read more Ecological footprint of the pharmaceutical industry in Germany ongoing | Project On behalf of the Association of Research-based Pharmaceutical Companies (vfa) we determined the global ecological footprint of Germany’s pharmaceutical industry. Read more Effects of deglobalisation on Germany and Europe 2023 | Project Increasing geopolitical tensions are endangering the world trading system. On behalf of the vbw, Prognos investigated possible consequences for the economy in Germany and the EU. Read more Where does Germany's economy really stand? 2023 | Company news Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer. Read more Evaluation of the federal grants to GTAI 2022 | Project The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively. Read more Are globalization and Germany’s business model on the way out? Why policymakers and companies need to act decisively – and how they can ensure future success. Joint study with BayernLB. Read more The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany 2022 | Project Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy. Read more EU clusters and value chains with Singapore 2022 | Project Singapore and the EU seek to intensify their relations through targeted cluster-based cooperation. Prognos analysed the potential for future cooperation. Read more Success model of the German economy put to the test 2021 | Project The globalisation dynamic is stagnating worldwide. In a study, Prognos develops new growth strategies for the export-oriented German economy. Read more Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Johann Weiß Senior Project Manager View profile About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more