The end of globalisation as we know it.

It was not so long ago that globalisation and increasing transnational cooperation were considered a “law of nature.” In particular, the 1990s and 2000s saw massive increases in cross-border cooperation.

Our data shows that the globalisation dynamic has been over for some time. The recent escalation of geopolitical disputes has only made things worse. As a result of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine, economic exchange relationships between Russia and the Western economies have, to a large extent, collapsed. Moreover, the geopolitical conflict between the West and China has intensified – and thus has the potential to seriously disrupt internationalised exchange relationships.

New challenges for business and politics

Geopolitical considerations have arrived on the agenda for decision makers. Until now, companies have chosen their foreign sales and procurement markets almost exclusively on the basis of economic criteria. Now, geopolitical stability and reliability must also be taken into account. In politics, too, issues surrounding economic exchange relations have tended to dominate intergovernmental relations. Meanwhile, geopolitical – or even military strategic – relationships and dependencies play a more significant role. We see these developments:

  • The completely changed globalisation dynamic has dramatically changed the decision-making framework for business and politics
  • Economic issues will continue to play a significant role in cross-border economic cooperation in the future – for example, regarding foreign growth markets for the German export sector
  • At the same time, geopolitical considerations are becoming more important – for example to the resilience of delivery chains or the predictability of foreign markets

Foreign trade openness still has opportunities to offer

We provide orientation to businesses and politics in uncertain times. Providing them valuable information that enables them to make decisions with strategic foresight. Because despite the overcast global situation, foreign trade openness still has opportunities to offer, for individual companies and the economy as a whole.

(De-)Globalisation: A selection of our services

Preparation, evaluation, and econometric analysis

We support decision-makers by preparing and analysing national and international statistics and data.

Model-based analysis

We create economic scenarios using our tried-and-tested Prognos models. They show the consequences of business and political decisions for different actors (sectors or regions) and for the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively.

Long-term projections

By means of long-term projections, we illustrate the demographic dynamics of the future, already foreseeable today.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.


| Event

Christian Böllhoff, CEO of Prognos, discusses the topic of (de)globalization at the Ludwig Erhard Summit with host Dr Wolfram Weimer.

New procurement markets for the Bavarian economy

| Project

New procurement markets can help increase the resilience and efficiency of the German and Bavarian supply chains. The study quantifies the current procurement markets and those still yet to be further exploited.

Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials

| Project

Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.

Ecological footprint of the pharmaceutical industry in Germany

| Project

On behalf of the Association of Research-based Pharmaceutical Companies (vfa) we determined the global ecological footprint of Germany’s pharmaceutical industry.

Effects of deglobalisation on Germany and Europe

| Project

Increasing geopolitical tensions are endangering the world trading system. On behalf of the vbw, Prognos investigated possible consequences for the economy in Germany and the EU.

Where does Germany's economy really stand?

| Company news

Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer.

Evaluation of the federal grants to GTAI

| Project

The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively.

Are globalization and Germany’s business model on the way out?

Why policymakers and companies need to act decisively – and how they can ensure future success. Joint study with BayernLB.

The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany

| Project

Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy.

EU clusters and value chains with Singapore

| Project

Singapore and the EU seek to intensify their relations through targeted cluster-based cooperation. Prognos analysed the potential for future cooperation.

Success model of the German economy put to the test

| Project

The globalisation dynamic is stagnating worldwide. In a study, Prognos develops new growth strategies for the export-oriented German economy.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Johann Weiß

Senior Project Manager

View profile

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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