Future-proof strategies for Europe
vbw – Bavarian Industry Association
2024
The world (economic) order is off the rails: In addition to the digital and green transformation, global trade is increasingly dominated by deglobalisation, disrupted value chains and geopolitical uncertainty. Germany and Europe's economic power is being put to the test.
In this context, Prognos examined possible foreign trade strategies. The short study on behalf of the Bavarian Industry Association shows – the USA and China will set the main course, but Europe also has room for manoeuvre. Companies and foreign policy can seek out new international partners, strengthen multilateral relationships, and thereby reduce geopolitical risks as much as possible.
Europe, and in particular Germany, have for decades benefitted from globalisation and the prevailing economic order. In recent times, however, it seems that cross-border cooperation has, at best, reached stagnation. The foreign trade sustainability of the European – as well as the German and, thus, also the Bavarian – business model is at stake.
Broadly, four external economic strategies are conceivable:
Overall, de-risking represents the best possible middle course among the four strategies.
Internationally active companies can implement the de-risking strategy by adapting the concept to their business model and risk profile. Policy makers are responsible for the following tasks:
The study is based on the analysis of statistical data and the evaluation of the relevant scientific literature. In addition, we draw on the preparatory work from previous studies conducted on behalf of the vbw – Bavarian Industry Association.
To the study (vbw website, in German)
Project team: Dr Michael Böhmer, Johann Weiss, Eva Willer
Latest update: 17.04.2024
Senior Project Manager
Consultant
German industry can increase the resilience of its supply chains by sourcing its intermediate products from different countries. We have analyzed these new procurement markets.
Even if the global trade in goods is no longer growing, there are still promising markets for German business. We present 13 potential markets in Asia and Latin America.
German industry is dependent on raw materials and preliminary products from abroad. On behalf of the Netzwerk Zukunft der Industrie e. V., Prognos analyses the supply chains and provides recommendations for action.
A race to catch up - this is what Europe needs if it is not to be left behind by the USA and China. In the SPIEGEL guest article, Christian Böllhoff calls for a new match plan with clear priorities for the new EU legislative period.
Growth in the German economy benefits the whole of Europe. Our study for the vbw shows that this is due to the size of the economy and its strong foreign trade networks.
Prognos develops a tool for an industry association that enables member companies to carry out risk analyses to identify sustainability risks in countries and sectors.
In his guest article "Move Europe - it's urgent!" in WirtschaftsWoche, Christian Böllhoff calls for Europe to reposition itself geo-economically in order to strengthen its position between the economic giants USA and China.
An industry association commissioned us to create a guide to successfully implement the materiality analysis for its member companies in accordance with the new European CSRD directive.
New procurement markets can help increase the resilience and efficiency of the German and Bavarian supply chains. The study quantifies the current procurement markets and those still yet to be further exploited.
Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.