New markets for the export sector – 2024 update

Numerous developing countries, especially in Asia and Latin America, are catching up economically. As a result, the demand for imports in these markets will increase. The German and Bavarian export sectors can benefit from this if companies identify these markets as relevant sales markets at an early stage.

The vbw – Bavarian Business Association has commissioned us to update the study from 2023. We provide current figures on the sales potential in the 13 most promising target countries in Asia and Latin America.

The potential markets in Asia

Asia is the world's most populous region. Many Asian markets are characterized by strong growth momentum and stable institutions. We have identified the following eight markets with potential in Asia: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates and Vietnam.

There are significant differences in the level of prosperity between the Asian growth markets:

• For example, the United Arab Emirates (around 47,700 euros in 2024) and Saudi Arabia (around 27,800 euros in 2024) have a high per capita gross domestic product.
• For other countries, such as India, Bangladesh and Uzbekistan, the per capita gross domestic product is significantly lower. With a per capita gross domestic product of around 2,500 euros in 2024, Bangladesh will have a similar level of prosperity to its neighbor India.

The potential markets in Latin America

The five Latin American potential markets examined – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru – have weaker growth momentum and more unstable institutional conditions on average than the Asian countries evaluated. They have a comparatively high level of prosperity and abundant resources.

The challenges in new sales markets

Doing business in the potential markets analyzed is likely to be more fragmented and challenging than in established markets. The economies in question are often smaller and the markets more isolated. In both Latin America and Asia, there are countries that have concluded free trade agreements with other states or the EU. However, other countries restrict the international exchange of goods through trade barriers.

Another factor is the already intense competition: in almost all the markets analyzed, China has very high market shares. In addition, Japan and South Korea are often strongly represented in Asia, while US companies are very present in Latin America.

Our approach

We have examined 13 growth markets in Asia and Latin America and assessed their attractiveness as an investment location and the sales potential there. In the first part, we provide data and sources on the framework conditions in the individual potential markets (macroeconomy and demography, institutional framework, external economic and political framework). The second part uses qualitative and quantitative methods to provide a more detailed insight into five selected product groups.

The information in the individual factsheets is based, on the one hand, on the forecast data from the Prognos VIEW world economic model, the data from the Prognos world trade model and the available data from official statistics. On the other hand, qualitative information on the individual potential markets, such as from Germany Trade & Invest or the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad, was evaluated via desk research.

Links and downloads

The study (vbw website, in German)

Summary of the previous study (in German) 

Project team: Silvia Golm, Miriam Lovis, Ricarda Samwer, Johann Weiß, Eva Willer

Last update: 29.11.2024