all models & tools

Models & Tools

Models

Unique: the Prognos models.

Reliable analyses and forecasts up to 40 years into the future – this is what Prognos stands for. For this, our experts have developed specific high-performance instruments: the technical-economic Prognos models. They allow us to answer very different, challenging system-related questions in the fields of economics, social welfare, energy and transport.

The Prognos models landscape

The technical-economic Prognos models can be interlinked depending on the question and make interdisciplinary aspects of a topic visible. This graphic shows how the models are interlinked:

 

The strengths of our models

  • Refined. Over 40 years of model work have shaped our model portfolio into what it is today. The Prognos models successfully compete with other models from science and consulting.
  • Interlinked. Our sub-models can be linked with each other depending on the issue at hand and thus depict interactions as well as overarching and integrated aspects.
  • Scientific. Our modelling is based on precise knowledge of how the respective segment and its dynamics work.
  • Tried-and-tested. We have been using models for decades, dealing with recurring issues. This allows us to check the results retrospectively and to constantly refine our models.
  • Resilient. We map the interactions and dynamics in the respective segments with well-founded arguments and underpin our results with sensitivity calculations.
  • Flexible. New questions require new approaches. Our models are modular to a large extent and can be extended or adapted to specific questions.
Our work in this field

Alternative transport scenario for Germany

2024
| Project

Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development.

Effects of deglobalisation on Germany and Europe

2023
| Project

Increasing geopolitical tensions are endangering the world trading system. On behalf of the vbw, Prognos investigated possible consequences for the economy in Germany and the EU.

Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany

2023
| Project

How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW.

Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality

2023
| Project

How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures.

Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households

2022
| Project

Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package.

Electricity price forecast

2022
| Project

How will the price of electricity develop over the next few years? A scenario calculation of wholesale electricity prices for the vbw.

Halt to Russian gas supply – consequences for German industry

2022
| Project

A new scenario commissioned by the vbw (Bavarian Industry Association) shows what German industry could face if Russia stopped supplying gas.

Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045

ongoing
| Project

Climate neutrality can only be achieved through higher energy efficiency. The German govern-ment's “Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2050” dialogue forum prepares concrete measures.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+

2021
| Project

What might a climate-neutral energy system in Switzerland look like in 2050? Prognos modelled the Energy Perspectives 2050+ on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Energy projections 2030/2050

2020
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics, Prognos has determined whether the Federal Government’s climate protection package will be enough for Germany to achieve its climate targets by 2030.

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on pension development

2020
| Project

Does the statutory minimum wage have an influence on pension development and individual pension entitlements? Prognos investigated this on behalf of the Minimum Wage Commission.

Your topics – our expertise.

You are engaged in relevant topics and future issues from the economy, politics or society? So are we! Learn more about our expertise.

See all topics

Feel free to contact us.

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

+41 61 32 73 331
almut.kirchner@prognos.com

Go to profile
Yes, I consent to Prognos processing the personal data I have provided above in order to best address the request I have made. I can revoke my consent at any time with effect for the future by sending an e-mail to info@prognos.com. You can find further information in our data protection declaration.