vbw – Bavarian Business Association
2022
Momentum on the global energy markets is currently high. What developments in energy prices can be expected in the next few years? What impact will the rising price have on renewable energies and consumers? In order to clarify this and other questions, we were commissioned by the vbw to create scenarios for the development of wholesale electricity prices.
The Prognos electricity market model was used to model future electricity market prices. It covers all power plants in Europe and models the dispatch of the wholesale market on an hourly level. This assumes both exchange with countries abroad as well as covering the domestic load. With regard to other parameters, such as the expansion of renewable energies and the development of electricity demand, we have aligned ourselves with the current energy and climate policy goals of the Federal Government and the EU. In addition to a range of electricity prices, the influence of hydrogen prices on the electricity market was also demonstrated. We have also shown that renewable energies will benefit greatly from the rise in electricity prices and that volatility in the electricity markets will increase significantly.
Our scenario calculation has the following results:
On the vbw website you will find:
Electricity price forecast (PDF, in German)
Learn more (in German)
Project team: Sven Kreidelmeyer, Dr Almut Kirchner, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr Fabian Muralter, Aurel Wünsch
Latest update: 21.09.2022
Senior Project Manager
As part of the Energy Efficiency Financing Coalition, Prognos has been selected as a member of the Austrian National Hub. There, we are involved in the working group for small and medium-sized enterprises and contribute our expertise on energy efficiency and its financing.
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How effective are the measures proposed by Germany’s federal ministries for the upcoming climate protection programme? Prognos and its partners examined the feasibility of the planned climate protection measures and analysed their impact on the climate.
What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw.
Energy prices remain high, and the expansion of renewable energies continues to fall short of targets: this is shown by our 14th Energy Transition Monitoring report, which we compiled on behalf of the vbw.
The analysis for the Federal Office of Energy shows that final energy consumption has fallen significantly since 2000, mainly thanks to savings in space and process heating. At the same time, demand has risen in areas such as electrical appliances and building services. Consumption has not changed significantly since 2020.
How far have systems for storing and extracting CO2 developed in Europe? Our study for the German Environment Agency evaluated planned and ongoing CO2 capture projects in Europe, focusing on BECCUS and DACCUS projects.
Prognos has been providing communications support for the network expansion of distribution network operator Schleswig-Holstein Netz since 2006.
How effective are EU cohesion and structural policies in driving green change in Europe? We examined this and other questions together with COWI, Milieu and CSIL on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).
Our study identifies the key cost components for low-carbon blue and green hydrogen and calculates the cost of supplying hydrogen to industry.
We combine economic research and strategy consulting for sustainable decisions in politics, business and society. Our robust data, precise analyses and scientifically based findings enable fact-based progress – financially independent, politically neutral.
