vbw – Bavarian Business Association
2022
Momentum on the global energy markets is currently high. What developments in energy prices can be expected in the next few years? What impact will the rising price have on renewable energies and consumers? In order to clarify this and other questions, we were commissioned by the vbw to create scenarios for the development of wholesale electricity prices.
The Prognos electricity market model was used to model future electricity market prices. It covers all power plants in Europe and models the dispatch of the wholesale market on an hourly level. This assumes both exchange with countries abroad as well as covering the domestic load. With regard to other parameters, such as the expansion of renewable energies and the development of electricity demand, we have aligned ourselves with the current energy and climate policy goals of the Federal Government and the EU. In addition to a range of electricity prices, the influence of hydrogen prices on the electricity market was also demonstrated. We have also shown that renewable energies will benefit greatly from the rise in electricity prices and that volatility in the electricity markets will increase significantly.
Our scenario calculation has the following results:
On the vbw website you will find:
Electricity price forecast (PDF, in German)
Learn more (in German)
Project team: Sven Kreidelmeyer, Dr Almut Kirchner, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr Fabian Muralter, Aurel Wünsch
Latest update: 21.09.2022
Project Manager
For over 15 years now Prognos has been bringing together the actors concerned by the expansion of the electricity grid and facilitating dialogue between them – from the Danish to the Swiss bor-der.
The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red.
What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw.
In the coming years new renewable power plants will have to be built – but also flexible gas power plants, which can be used when required. We examined various incentive instruments on behalf of the vbw.
How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW.
The extension of the energy network lays the foundation for the energy transition. Since 2019, Prognos has been supporting transmission system operator TenneT TSO GmbH with their project communication concerning the establishment of the new West Coast transmission line in Schleswig-Holstein.
Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030.
Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.
In the medium and long term, average wholesale electricity prices are above the 2019/2020 level. Our updated scenarios for the vbw.
If savings continue to be as low as in January and February, the risk of a gas shortage will in-crease in the coming winter.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.