vbw – Bavarian Business Association
2022
Momentum on the global energy markets is currently high. What developments in energy prices can be expected in the next few years? What impact will the rising price have on renewable energies and consumers? In order to clarify this and other questions, we were commissioned by the vbw to create scenarios for the development of wholesale electricity prices.
The Prognos electricity market model was used to model future electricity market prices. It covers all power plants in Europe and models the dispatch of the wholesale market on an hourly level. This assumes both exchange with countries abroad as well as covering the domestic load. With regard to other parameters, such as the expansion of renewable energies and the development of electricity demand, we have aligned ourselves with the current energy and climate policy goals of the Federal Government and the EU. In addition to a range of electricity prices, the influence of hydrogen prices on the electricity market was also demonstrated. We have also shown that renewable energies will benefit greatly from the rise in electricity prices and that volatility in the electricity markets will increase significantly.
Our scenario calculation has the following results:
On the vbw website you will find:
Electricity price forecast (PDF, in German)
Learn more (in German)
Project team: Sven Kreidelmeyer, Dr Almut Kirchner, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr Fabian Muralter, Aurel Wünsch
Latest update: 21.09.2022
Project Manager
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Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.