Greenhouse gas
projections 2024
expert appraisal

The Federal Environment Agency published its 2024 greenhouse gas projection data in March 2024. The data evaluates current climate policy and estimate the levels of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted by Germany up to 2050.

The 2024 GHG projections indicate a reduction in GHG emission levels by 2030 of almost 64 percent compared to 1990, slightly exceeding the goals set in the Climate Protection Act.

The Federal Government commissioned the Council of Experts on Climate Change (ERK) to compile a special report to review the 2024 GHG projections. In parallel, Prognos and ifeu were commissioned with scientifically reviewing the projections data and ranking – as far as possible – the plausibility of the methodology and data used. This expert appraisal also serves as a scientific contribution to the further development of the GHG projections.

Our study shows: The methodology used for the projections is robust but not all assumptions appeared plausible – the reported meeting of targets is thus not reliable.

Strong reductions to emissions in the energy sector – uncertainties in the assumed electricity import

Our expert appraisal has come to the following conclusions:

• The speed of transformation assumed in the projections report is yet to be achieved under current policy measures.
• Reductions in emissions in the energy sector are decisive for achieving climate goals by 2030. The development of energy and CO₂ prices (Emission Trading System, ETS) play a crucial role here.
• In terms of the energy sector, high levels of electricity import can be expected from 2027, domestic generation with gas plants would result in significantly higher GHG emissions.
• Gas prices for the coming years have been set too high. This includes the CO₂ prices in the EU ETS. High ETS-CO₂ prices displace coal – making a large GHG reduction in the energy sector possible, but also uncertain, or at least dependant on the EU-ETS price range.
• Industry: The results have been derived in a sound methodological manner. The assumed EU-ETS prices could potentially lead to an over estimation of the speed of transformation and thus reduction effects.
• Transport: As a result of the suspended or uncertain financing of particular funding instruments the ramp up of electro vehicles (passenger and goods) tends towards being optimistically modelled. Should the electrification of road transport be less than assumed, then transport targets will be missed by an even larger margin.
• Buildings: The method used for the consideration of global warming requires further clarification. The projections assumed very warm winters, which in turn could lead to an overestimation of the strong downturn in heating requirements for buildings.

Our approach

For the purposes of the expert appraisal, we first compiled the projection data from the 2024 project report in the context of current economic and climate political developments. We then verified the plausibility of the methodology used and the robustness of the results. In addition, the appraisal contains recommendations for how the compilation of future reports can be improved.

Links and downloads

The expert appraisal (PDF in German)

Project team: Alex Auf der Maur, Dr Andreas Kemmler, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Jan Limbers, Dr Alexander Piégsa, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen

Latest update: 03.06.2024