Strategic resources for the energy transition. Increasing energy efficiency and the decarbonisation of the heating market are two of the most important strategic tasks for a successful energy transition. Energy efficiency as a business model Energy efficiency protects against price risks, international conflicts, and global crises: any energy saved does not need to be bought elsewhere. Increasing energy efficiency means reducing energy demand and increasing output. Technological and social innovations enable new ways of saving to be constantly added to the more traditional, well-known methods. The “classics” – LEDs, high-efficiency pumps, and triple glazing – are joined by nanomaterials, microtechnologies, digitalisation, energy-efficient data centres, and intelligent management systems. But energy efficiency goes beyond climate protection: it offers opportunities for new business models. For many economic players, there is a growing business area around “smart” buildings and cities. Heating: Central sector for the energy transition The heating market is an important economic factor and is central to a successful energy transition. About half of the final energy consumed in Germany is used for heat generation: to heat buildings, for hot water production, and for process heat. The specific challenge: climate protection goals can only be achieved if the decarbonisation of the heating supply goes hand in hand with increases in energy efficiency. Sector coupling will also play a key role in the heat transition, not only in terms of the use of heat pumps. In order to tap into the potential of industrial waste heat or geothermal energy, and to make targeted use of renewable heat generation, many cities are offering an expansion of the district heating supply. Renewable hydrogen will also be a major factor in the future: this fuel is particularly suitable for process heat in some industrial sectors. Heat & Energy Efficiency: A selection of our services Strategies and scenarios Using model-based forecasts and scenarios, we develop strategies for the decarbonisation of heating and increased energy efficiency. Analysis of measures We classify technical measures for energy efficiency and decarbonisation in terms of their overall economic impact, analyse their potential, and identify energy-saving options. Evaluation of energy policy instruments On behalf of our clients, we evaluate energy policy instruments, develop them further, and estimate costs and benefits. Market analyses and monitoring For our clients, we monitor and analyse relevant markets for energy efficiency, energy services, and decarbonisation options. We conduct monitoring and create standardised reports for this very purpose. Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. Economic efficiency of heat pumps 2023 | Project For a paper by Environmental Action Germany, we provided case studies on the question of whether the switch to heat pumps in typical single- and multi-family homes is more economical than exchanging gas boilers. Read more Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality 2023 | Project How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures. Read more DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal ongoing | Project How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO). Read more Policy Paper MEPS: Minimum efficiency standards for existing buildings 2023 | Project Energy-efficient building renovation is an important part of achieving climate protection goals in the buildings sector. A brief summary of the role of MEPS within this context. Read more 11th Energy Transition Monitoring 2023 | Project Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals. Read more Regulation of third-party access to heating networks 2022 | Project The EU Commission wants to make third-party access to district heating networks mandatory. We assessed the consequences for Germany and the possible contribution to decarbonisation on behalf of the BMWK. Read more Evaluation and further development of the national Emissions Trading System (nETS) 2022 | Project On behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, we are developing suitable approaches for the impact assessment of the nETS together with the FÖS and the DIW. Read more The world negotiates on climate 2022 | Expertise On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise. Read more Eleven measures to achieve 2030 climate target 2022 | Project Germany risks not hitting its 2030 climate objectives. The Forum Ökologisch-Soziale Marktwirtschaft proposes eleven measures. We assessed their impact on climate protection in the transport and building sectors. Read more Close-up on heat pumps 2022 | Project Due to increased gas prices, heat pumps are significantly more economical than fossil fuel heaters for average renovated apartment buildings. Read more Intermediate status of the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032 2022 | Project update Prognos supported transmission system operators in their preparation of the interim status of the Gas Network Development Plan 2022-2032. Read more Comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios 2022 | Project Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios. Read more Energy efficiency analysis of electrical appliances ongoing | Project On behalf of the Energy Agency for Electrical Appliances (eae), Prognos annually examines the development in the efficiency of electrical appliances and their influence on energy consumption in Switzerland. Read more Decentralised heat supply in a climate-neutral Germany 2022 | Project What role does the heat pump play in a 100-percent renewable electricity system compared to hydrogen heating? An analysis for the Climate Neutrality Foundation. Read more Evaluation of the Federal Funding for Efficient Buildings (BEG) ongoing | Project On behalf of the BMWK, we evaluate the impact of the BEG in the funding period 2021 – 2023 together with ifeu, ITG, and FIW. Read more Green Finance's contribution on the way to climate neutrality 2021 | Project On the way to climate neutrality, green finance gains importance. For the first time, the total climate protection investments required to achieve the climate targets in Germany have been quantified by Prognos. Read more The future of construction 2021 | Project For the building industry, climate protection is moving into the centre. Because it is one of the largest consumers of resources and energy. Study for the Future Council of the vbw. Read more Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045 ongoing | Project Climate neutrality can only be achieved through higher energy efficiency. The German govern-ment's “Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2050” dialogue forum prepares concrete measures. Read more Hydrogen: Energy carrier of the future? 2021 | Project The journey towards climate neutrality is gaining momentum. Hydrogen is a key building block to achieving it. Read more Climate-Neutral Germany 2045 2021 | Project Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050. Read more Decarbonisation options in the building sector 2020 | Project How can greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector be reduced? Read more 8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition 2020 | Project For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Read more Climate Protection and Gas Infrastructure 2018 | Project Increased expansion of renewable energies and greater energy efficiency could significantly reduce European gas consumption and save costs. This is the result of a study by Prognos and Ecologic. Read more Demand for skilled labour for the energy transition of buildings 2018 | Project One of the results of the study: For the implementation of the energy transformation, 130,000 additional workers will be needed. Read more Climate Path for Germany 2018 | Project How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI). Read more IMPORTANCE OF LIQUID ENERGY SOURCES FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION 2018 | Project There is still a need for liquid energy sources such as gasoline. E-fuels are an almost greenhouse gas-neutral alternative to fossil fuels. Prognos examined their perspectives in the energy transition for the associations of the mineral oil industry. Read more Future of th electricity system II 2018 | Project How can the transition to a power supply based on renewable energies by 2050 be successfully managed? This question is answered by a study for WWF Germany. Read more Market analysis for energy services 2017 | Project How is the economic environment of energy service providers developing? On behalf of the Federal Agency for Energy Efficiency, Prognos and two research partners investigated this question. Read more Ex-post analysis of Swiss energy consumption 2015 2016 | Project Swiss energy consumption in the last 15 years has been slightly reduced. Technological progress and policy intervention played a central role, as shown by the analysis conducted by Prognos, TEP and Infras. Read more Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Friedrich Seefeldt Partner, Director View profile Nils Thamling Principal View profile About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more