Free State of Thuringia’s transition to greenhouse gas neutrality

Investment and climate change mitigation: the Free State of Thuringia has set itself its own specific climate goals. On behalf of the Thuringian Ministry for the Environment, Energy and Nature Conservation (TMUEN), we and the Leipziger Institut für Energie investigated how the state can achieve its transition toward greenhouse gas neutrality from an investment perspective.

Greenhouse gas neutrality: Positive effects on the Thuringian economy 

Based on a target scenario, the study shows that the necessary technologies and measures on the way to greenhouse gas neutrality are largely already in place. Nevertheless, this will require investment: Over the next 20 years, climate protection investments of almost 70 billion are expected to be necessary. 

Core results 

• Buildings: In the target scenario, investments in the buildings sector remain elevated up to 2045. This is partly due to the ongoing heating transition, which will not be completed before the year 2045. The increase will be exacerbated by expected further rise in construction costs, which will make energy-efficient renovations and new buildings more expensive. 
• Energy sector & energy infrastructure: The conversion of this technological segment is expected to be largely completed by 2040, after which climate protection investments will decrease significantly again. In the expansion of renewable energy generation, investments are mainly made in the expansion of wind energy, although the expansion of PV is also relevant. When it comes to energy infrastructure, electricity grids account for around three quarters of climate protection investments. 
• Transport: In the transport sector, average annual climate protection investments of around 0.4 billion euros are expected by 2030, after which they could fall to just under half by 2045. At over 40 per cent, charging infrastructure accounts for the largest share of climate protection investments in the transport sector. 
• Industry: In the target scenario, the lowest climate protection investments are made in the industrial sector compared to the other sectors, however these are distributed among a small number of players or companies. In addition, where hydrogen or synthetic energy sources are used, higher ongoing energy costs may also result. Climate change investments in this sector mainly concern the installation of more efficient and climate-compatible furnaces in the area of process heat. 
• The investments needed for the transformation can have a positive impact on the economy: by creating additional jobs or reducing expenditure on energy. Overall, the expenditure of some stakeholders is the income of others.

Climate protection measures in various sectors 

The study develops measures that can be implemented by the Free State of Thuringia and actors in municipalities and business to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality. 

Some of these measures were considered to be particularly effective: 

• Expansion of storage capacities on an energy industry scale 
• Financial support for smaller municipalities in creating municipal heating and cooling plans  
• Support for the electrification of production processes in industry 
• Promotion and modernisation of existing rented residential buildings
• Encouraging users to be more economical with electricity and heat in buildings 
• Supporting climate-friendly urban development 
• Facilitating mobile working and the digitalisation of administrative processes 
• Decentralisation projects for better local supply of all kinds  
• Providing additional local public transport services on axes with current and potentially high demand 
• Cycling priority routes on important connecting routes outside the city 
• Promoting the development of public electrical charging infrastructure 
• Procurement of energy-efficient electric vehicles for the state vehicle fleet 
• Promotion of corporate mobility management for companies and organisations 

Our approach 

As a first step, we mapped the status quo and the previous development of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Thuringia along the sectors. On this basis, three reduction paths (reference scenario, target scenario 2045, target scenario 2040) were developed and modelled for future GHG emissions in Thuringia.

The reference scenario describes the expected development if all the climate protection measures currently adopted at EU and federal level are fully implemented. In the 2045 target scenario, the state reduces its GHG emissions to zero by 2045 in accordance with national targets. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive transformation of all sectors is necessary. The 2040 target scenario aims to achieve GHG neutrality five years earlier than the 2045 target scenario. In this scenario, measures are intensified and their implementation accelerated.

The key pillars of infrastructure development were analysed in greater depth. The main focus was on electricity and district heating generation and electricity, heating, hydrogen and CO₂ networks.

Links and downloads 

To the study (PDF in German) 

Project team: Dr Andreas Kemmler, Dr Almut Kirchner, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr Fabian Muralter, Dr Alexander Piégsa, Malek Sahnoun, Nils Thamling, Minh Phuong Vu

Latest update: 27.11.2024