Expertise

Work & Skilled Labour

Megatrends are shaping the future working environment.

Structural change, (de)globalisation, demographics and technological progress are shaping the working world of tomorrow. Demands to the workforce and working conditions are facing massive changes, and societal trends, such as an aging population, shifting preferences within education and new normative ideas of work are showing their effects.

Skilled labour shortage in Germany

Mismatches between labour supply and labour demand create imbalances on the labour market, likely resulting in unemployment or lack of skilled workers. Shortages of skilled workers can already be seen in certain sectors and regions of Germany, where the current supply of qualified workers does not meet the demand. Demographic change will exacerbate this problem. Conversely, certain sectors in fact have more skilled labour than is needed.

The availability of skilled labour as a political challenge

It remains a key political challenge to ensure both employment and skilled labour are available. Only a balanced labour market can facilitate growth, prosperity and social inclusion.

  • How will the different areas within the labour market develop?
  • What are the consequences of these developments for associations, trade unions, employment agencies, educational institutions, employers and employees?
  • In which areas are targeted measures most efficient?

Complex developments like these require interdisciplinary coping strategies. Prerequisites for this are: Comprehensive technical and methodological expertise in areas such as labour market, education, employment, qualification and human resource management.

Work & Skilled Labour: A selection of our services

Analyses for the working world of the future

We use qualitative and quantitative forecasts as well as scenarios to shed light on the work environments of the future and its effects on the overall economy, on sectors, regions and occupations as well as individual players such as associations, companies, trade unions and educational institutions.

Labour market forecasts and model-based scenarios

With our skilled labour model, we forecast how the development of supply and demand will evolve as well as the outcomes of measures to secure the availability of skilled workers.

Strategy development and implementation planning

Our technical expertise from the areas of economics, education and social protection – coupled with our model-based scenarios – underpin not only our approaches on how to avoid shortages of skilled workers, but also our counsel on (political) strategy development and implementation planning.

Consulting for employer branding and human resources management

Our employer branding strategies and advice on prospective human resource management support employers in the public sector.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Impact of global crises on regional labour markets

ongoing
| Project

A shrinking workforce, digitalisation and decarbonisation: Prognos examines the specific effects of global trends on regional labour markets.

Presentation of the study on the economic and social situation in the cultural and creative industries

| Event

The results of our study on the economic and social situation of solo self-employed and hybrid workers in the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) will be presented at the event.

Germany Potential Index: Digitalisation to counter the skilled-worker shortage

2024
| Project

The skilled-worker shortage is only due to get worse in the future. Our Potential Index shows: Increased digitalisation can help to cushion the negative consequences of the skilled-worker shortage in Germany.

Employers’ attractiveness according to parents and carers

2024
| Project

Employees want tailor-made reconciliation measures that ensure work-life balance and not to face professional disadvantage as a result of their care work. These were the findings of our study for the BMFSFJ.

Study on Poverty and income inequality in the context of the digital transformation

2024
| Project

The study for the European Commission examines the impact of digitalisation on the employment situation in the individual member states as well as on the EU economy as a whole.

Harnessing Talent Platform: Technical support in progress

2024
| Project update

The Harnessing Talent Platform supports selected regions within the EU that are particularly affected by demographic change and the brain drain. The technical support that Prognos is providing in some regions has now been launched with kick-off meetings.

Support for the Just Transition Platform

2024
| Project

Through the Just Transition Platform (JTP), the EU supports the member states and regions in achieving their climate targets in a fair manner. Prognos provided the JTP with in-depth analyses and knowledge management.

The invisible value of care work

2024
| Expertise

72 billion hours: That is how many unpaid care work hours are performed in Germany, annually, by women. In a new paper, we show the value of unpaid care work and how unevenly it is dis-tributed between men and women.

Official start: Ten regions receive technical assistance from the EU

2023
| Project update

Within the Harnessing Talent Platform, the European Commission has selected ten regions to receive technical assistance for securing skilled workers.

The economic and social situation of the creative industries

ongoing
| Project

In a comprehensive study, Prognos analyses the social and economic situation of freelance and hybrid working creatives. The results will serve as a basis for targeted improvements.

Securing skilled workers with the help of the Harnessing Talent Platform

ongoing
| Project

DG Regio's new platform aims to help EU regions develop strategies to attract talent. Prognos is, among other things, leading the knowledge generation.

Where does Germany's economy really stand?

2023
| Company news

Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer.

Pension at 63 – Quo vadis?

2023
| Project

Retiring at 63 is very popular. In 2021 alone, more than 270,000 people took the option of early retirement. These were the findings of our study for the INSM.

In danger: Objectives of the “Ampel-Koalition”

2023
|
New project

A short new analysis shows to what extent the shortage of skilled workers threatens the central political projects of the Federal Government.

Just Transition Platform Conference: Carbon-Intensive Regions

| Event

Stakeholders of the European chemical industry exchange on their activities for a just transition towards climate neutrality.

Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

ongoing
| Project

How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation?

Just Transition Platform: Meeting of the Working Group on Chemicals

| Event

At the meeting of the JTP Working Group on Chemicals, proposals will be discussed to help EU regions with a strong chemical industry make a just transition to climate neutrality.

No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security.

2022
| Project

Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike.

The importance of the German economy for the EU

2022
| Project

Through intensive trade relations with EU states, the German economy is an important driver of economic development in the EU.

Just Transition Platform Meeting: Coal Regions in Transition

| Event

Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer speaks at the fifth Just Transition Platform Meeting.

Rhineland-Palatinate Transformation Agency

ongoing
| Project

The Transformation Agency serves as a signpost for the changing world of work. Prognos puts this into action on behalf of the Ministry for Labour, Social Affairs, Transformation and Digitisation.

Ecological transformation and dual education in Bremen

2021
| Project

What is the demand for professionally trained specialists in Bremen as a business location in light of climate protection measures?

Innovation region Central Germany 2040 – Socio-economic perspective

2021
| Project

The population in Central Germany is shrinking, aging, and requires increasing levels of care. However, the industries in focus have leverage – especially in cities.

Das Bildungsgrundeinkommen – ein Instrument der Weiterbildungsfinanzierung

2021
| Project

Das Zentrum Liberale Moderne macht einen Vorschlag, die Weiterbildungsfinanzierung auf neue Grundlagen zu stellen. Prognos hat die Kosten des neuen Instrumentes in einer Studie abgeschätzt.

Industries during the pandemic: The pharmaceutical industry is crisis-resistant

2021
| Project

The study shows that the pharmaceutical industry makes an important contribution to value creation and employment in Germany and stabilised the state of the German economy during the crisis-related slump in 2020.

Jobs in the building sector can cushion pandemic job losses

2021
| Project

The study shows how the high demand for skilled workers in the building sector can mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic on the labour market. The industry is thus contributing to the stabilisation of the labour market and to the success of the energy transition.

General report: Evaluation of the general statutory minimum wage

2020
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, we evaluated the impact of the statutory minimum wage in Germany since its introduction in 2015.

Wage income developments 2025

2020
| Project

If German economic productivity increases, not every individual benefits to the same extent. These are the results of our study commissioned by the Bertelsmann Stiftung.

Work Landscape 2025

2019
| Project

The "Labor Landscape" study series has been providing an overview of the development of labor demand and labor supply in Germany since 2008.

Digital transformation in the workplace of the European Chemicals Sector

2019
| Project

As part of a social partnership project for the ECEG and industriAll European Trade Union, the study examines the effects of innovation and digital transformation on the workplace in the chemical industry on a Europe-wide scale.

Germany Report 2025|2035|2045

2018
| Project

Germany will become more global, more digital, greener and older in the next 30 years. This is shown by Prognos Deutschland Report from 2018/2019.

Strategies to combat the skilled-worker shortage in nursing care

2018
| Project

Which strategies can be used to tackle the shortage of skilled workers in nursing care for the elderly? This question is the subject of a Prognos study commissioned by the Bertelsmann Stiftung.

Attracting and retaining skilled workers in early education

2018
| Project

By the year 2030 there will be a shortage of around 199,000 educators throughout Germany. This is shown by a Prognos study for the Federal Ministry of Family Affairs.

Cost-benefit analysis of family-friendly corporate policy

2010
| Project

The model calculation for selected Swiss companies shows that the immediate positive effects of a family-friendly personnel policy outweigh the costs.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Susanne Heinzelmann

Partner, Head of Education & Employment

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Markus Hoch

Senior Project Manager

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Claudia Münch

Principal

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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