all projects

Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

Client

Ministry of Economic Affairs, Transport, Employment, Technology and Tourism for Schleswig-Holstein

Year

ongoing


The demand for workers in Schleswig-Holstein has developed particularly dynamically in recent years. The question remains: Will enough skilled workers be available by 2030 for Schleswig-Holstein to achieve its climate protection goals? Prognos answered this question for the Schleswig-Holstein Ministry of Economic Affairs, Transport, Employment, Technology and Tourism for Schleswig-Holstein, in 2023.

A labour shortage constitutes an obstacle to the implementation of climate change mitigationmeasures

In almost every one of the main professional groups relevant for the achievement of climate protection goals, job offers remain vacant until 2030. The study also shows that by 2030, the lack of workers across all industries will have reached around 120,000. This means that around ten percent of the jobs on offer will not be covered by the supply. The greatest demand will be for highly skilled professionals.

The results make it clear that bottlenecks in qualified workers pose a risk for the implementation of the federal state’s planned climate change mitigation measures. It will be necessary to counteract the skilled worker shortage with suitable measures to secure the missing workers. The study's team of authors makes suitable suggestions:

  • Strengthening vocational training
  • Transition of university graduates to the regional labour market
  • Targeted addressing of different target groups
  • Design and promotion of further training
  • Targeted location marketing – attracting specialists from Germany and abroad

The selection of possible fields of action and the associated measures described serve as a starting point for the further development of a skilled workforce strategy.

Focus on professional groups that are particularly relevant for climate protection measures

The Prognos team identified the sectors and key occupations that are particularly relevant for the implementation of climate protection measures, among other things, bycomparing the planned climate protection measures in the federal state with those planned at national level. The estimated workplace effects were incorporated into the calculation model using a scenario surcharge.

A comparison with the regional supply of skilled workers available up to 2030, shows which parts of the labour market are expected to experience skilled-worker shortages. The focus is on vocational and academic education. The resulting qualification requirements as well as measures for securing skilled workers were also examined.

Links & downloads

Further information and the study itself can be found on the Schleswig-Holstein website

Information & Study (in German)

Project team (alphabetical): Dr Jonathan Eberle, Markus Hoch, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Philipp Kreuzer, Claudia Münch, Hannah Staab, Kristina Stegner, Lauritz Wandhoff

Last update: 8.3.2023

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Markus Hoch

Senior Project Manager

View profile

Claudia Münch

Principal

View profile

Mehr Studien & Projekte zu diesem Thema

More studies & projects on this topic

Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany

2022
| Project

A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes.

Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors

2023
| Project

One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages.

Accelerated climate protection does pay off

2023
| Project

If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM.

DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal

ongoing
| Project

How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).

Germany’s business model 2023

2023
| Project

Why politicians and companies need to act consistently - and how they can do so. Joint study with BayernLB.

Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households

2022
| Project

Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package.

The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany

2022
| Project

Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy.

Resilient supply chains in the EU

2022
| Project

What are possible solutions when supply chains are disrupted due to external shocks? A survey conducted for the European Commission as part of the European Cluster Collaboration Platform provides answers.

Innovation Index Germany

2022
| Project

How does the expansion of the digital infrastructure affect regional innovation strength? The IID.2022 provides clarification.

The world negotiates on climate

2022
| News

On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more