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Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

Client

Ministry of Economic Affairs, Transport, Employment, Technology and Tourism for Schleswig-Holstein

Year

ongoing


The demand for workers in Schleswig-Holstein has developed particularly dynamically in recent years. The question remains: Will enough skilled workers be available by 2030 for Schleswig-Holstein to achieve its climate protection goals? Prognos answered this question for the Schleswig-Holstein Ministry of Economic Affairs, Transport, Employment, Technology and Tourism for Schleswig-Holstein, in 2023.

A labour shortage constitutes an obstacle to the implementation of climate change mitigationmeasures

In almost every one of the main professional groups relevant for the achievement of climate protection goals, job offers remain vacant until 2030. The study also shows that by 2030, the lack of workers across all industries will have reached around 120,000. This means that around ten percent of the jobs on offer will not be covered by the supply. The greatest demand will be for highly skilled professionals.

The results make it clear that bottlenecks in qualified workers pose a risk for the implementation of the federal state’s planned climate change mitigation measures. It will be necessary to counteract the skilled worker shortage with suitable measures to secure the missing workers. The study's team of authors makes suitable suggestions:

  • Strengthening vocational training
  • Transition of university graduates to the regional labour market
  • Targeted addressing of different target groups
  • Design and promotion of further training
  • Targeted location marketing – attracting specialists from Germany and abroad

The selection of possible fields of action and the associated measures described serve as a starting point for the further development of a skilled workforce strategy.

Focus on professional groups that are particularly relevant for climate protection measures

The Prognos team identified the sectors and key occupations that are particularly relevant for the implementation of climate protection measures, among other things, bycomparing the planned climate protection measures in the federal state with those planned at national level. The estimated workplace effects were incorporated into the calculation model using a scenario surcharge.

A comparison with the regional supply of skilled workers available up to 2030, shows which parts of the labour market are expected to experience skilled-worker shortages. The focus is on vocational and academic education. The resulting qualification requirements as well as measures for securing skilled workers were also examined.

Links & downloads

Further information and the study itself can be found on the Schleswig-Holstein website

Information & Study (in German)

Project team (alphabetical): Dr Jonathan Eberle, Markus Hoch, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Philipp Kreuzer, Claudia Münch, Hannah Staab, Kristina Stegner, Lauritz Wandhoff

Last update: 8.3.2023

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Markus Hoch

Senior Project Manager

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Claudia Münch

Principal

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