By the year 2030 there will be a shortage of around 199,000 educators throughout Germany. At the same time, there are a number of ways in which the shortage of skilled workers can be closed.
This is shown by a Prognos study for the Federal Ministry of Family Affairs. The study was published on Tuesday, 18 December - to accompany the presentation of the "Bundesprogramm Fachkräfteoffensive Erzieherinnen und Erzieher"(Federal Programme for Specialist Staff Offensive Educators) by Federal Family Minister Dr. Franziska Giffey.
For the first time, the study identified skilled labour requirements and gaps beyond 2025 and up to 2030. The forecasts presented are based on calculations of the population level with the figures from 2017 and take into account not only the increased immigration figures but also the increase in birth rates in 2016 and 2017 for future skilled labour requirements. The key influencing factors included and quantified here were the number of children and the childcare rates, the personnel keys as well as new arrivals and departures of skilled workers.
In the study, the Prognos experts point out the following In order to counteract the shortage of skilled workers, the profession of educator must become more attractive. There are three strategic approaches to this: the offensive improvement of training conditions, the increase in the attractiveness of the occupational field and a high-profile upgrading of the occupational image.
Particularly great potential can be seen cumulatively up to 2030 in these measures:
- With remuneration for the training period, the potential of 50,500 people who reject their interest in training as educators due to a lack of remuneration could be reached.
- If attractive training conditions succeed in permanently stabilising the high number of graduates last year, this would correspond to 104,000 new entrants in early education.
- Due to difficult working conditions and a lack of career opportunities, many skilled workers leave the workplace within the first five years. If the proportion of early retirement can be halved, 35,000 more skilled workers will remain in early education.
Read the study (PDF, in German only)
Dr. Dagmar Weßler-Poßberg, Gwendolyn Huschik, Markus Hoch
Prognos – Providing Orientation.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.Learn more