Skilled workers for the energy transition

The energy transition can only succeed with the consistent expansion of renewable energies. But how many workers and specialists are needed and what qualifications are required? This was the subject of a study conducted by Prognos on behalf of the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK).

The aim of this study is, firstly, to estimate the future demand for skilled workers and the associated bottlenecks along the value chains in the photovoltaic, wind power and hydrogen sectors. Secondly, the practical implementation in companies is examined. The focus is on the shortage of skilled workers and its economic consequences, as well as strategies for securing skilled workers.

The results of this study provide decision-makers in politics and business with information on how the transformation in the field of renewable energies can be managed in terms of personnel and how the securing of skilled workers along the value chains can be successfully implemented.

Over half a million employees needed for the transformation

The analysis of the demand for skilled workers shows:

• By 2030, an additional 300,000 skilled workers will be needed in the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, in addition to the 200,000 workers currently employed. It can be assumed that about 50,000 additional skilled workers will be needed for the hydrogen industry.
• Overall, the number of employees that will be needed in the three sectors by 2030 is therefore expected to rise to around 550,000.
• There will be a particular demand for people at the skilled level (with vocational training) and for specialists (people with advanced vocational training or a bachelor's degree).
• The outlook for 2035 shows that the shortage of skilled workers could become even more acute due to demographic trends and the age structure in the relevant occupations.

Shortage of skilled workers slows the expansion of renewable energies

The study shows that the shortage of skilled workers has arrived in practice:

• It is becoming increasingly difficult for the companies surveyed to recruit skilled workers, and vacancies remain open for longer.
• The shortage of skilled workers is affecting the competitiveness and innovative capacity of the companies.
• The expansion of renewable energies depends on many sub-steps. It is therefore important to consider the entire value chain: not only a shortage of skilled workers in the core business of the energy sector can lead to delays, but also bottlenecks in areas such as logistics and transport can contribute to slowing down the expansion and endangering the transformation of the economy as a whole.

Training as a key factor in combating the shortage of skilled workers

According to their own statements, companies in the photovoltaic, wind energy and hydrogen sectors use a range of measures to cushion the immediate shortage of skilled workers:

• Training: Attractive training programs are a central element in counteracting the decline in the labor supply. The current balance sheets of the completed training contracts show an ambivalent picture for the examined value chains. Some training occupations are in line with the trend (e.g. in the fields of IT, plant mechanics or construction equipment operation), while others are losing their appeal (e.g. commercial employees for freight forwarding and logistics services, skilled construction workers and professional drivers).
• Further training: Further training opportunities are another instrument for qualifying existing skilled workers for relevant activities. The rapid expansion of renewable energies requires fast solutions here.
• Foreign skilled workers: Another lever is the recruitment and integration of international skilled workers. The majority of companies rate this measure as relevant, but consider the necessary recognition procedures to be too lengthy and costly.
• New target groups: In addition to international skilled workers, target groups such as career changers and older employees also offer untapped potential.

Mixed-methods approach for a holistic view

The basis for this study was a mixed-methods approach: this combines an analysis of existing labor market data and a forecast of the future supply of skilled workers with an in-depth literature analysis and 25 interviews with experts from the photovoltaic, wind energy and hydrogen sectors. Prognos' own skilled labor model was used to map the development of the labor supply up to 2035. Finally, the research team reflected the findings of these analyses for the study with additional subject matter experts from scientific institutes, industry associations, and companies.

The analysis focuses exclusively on Germany as a location; activities abroad were not considered.

Note on the data status

Addition from 16.12.2024

The scenarios presented in the study on labor demand in the photovoltaic, wind energy and hydrogen sectors are based on an evaluation of subject-specific literature and third-party studies. These analyses and the scenarios developed there are based on the data from 2022 and do not reflect the dynamic growth that has since taken place in the expansion of photovoltaics, for example (with 15 GW added in each of 2023 and 2024). In the course of this expansion push, there has already been a significant increase in employment, which reduces the estimates of additional future demand up to 2030. Furthermore, it should be noted that further expansion up to 2030 is expected to be increasingly driven by ground-mounted systems, which are less labor-intensive. In this respect, the expectations based on 2022 tend to be interpreted as an upper limit.

Links & downloads

The study (PDF, in German )

DIHK press release (in German) 

Project team: Dr Oliver Ehrentraut, Alice Greschkow, Philipp Kreuzer, Hauke Toborg, Lauritz Wandhoff

Last update: 16.12.2024