Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK)
2024
The energy transition can only succeed with the consistent expansion of renewable energies. But how many workers and specialists are needed and what qualifications are required? This was the subject of a study conducted by Prognos on behalf of the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK).
The aim of this study is, firstly, to estimate the future demand for skilled workers and the associated bottlenecks along the value chains in the photovoltaic, wind power and hydrogen sectors. Secondly, the practical implementation in companies is examined. The focus is on the shortage of skilled workers and its economic consequences, as well as strategies for securing skilled workers.
The results of this study provide decision-makers in politics and business with information on how the transformation in the field of renewable energies can be managed in terms of personnel and how the securing of skilled workers along the value chains can be successfully implemented.
The analysis of the demand for skilled workers shows:
The study shows that the shortage of skilled workers has arrived in practice:
According to their own statements, companies in the photovoltaic, wind energy and hydrogen sectors use a range of measures to cushion the immediate shortage of skilled workers:
The basis for this study was a mixed-methods approach: this combines an analysis of existing labor market data and a forecast of the future supply of skilled workers with an in-depth literature analysis and 25 interviews with experts from the photovoltaic, wind energy and hydrogen sectors. Prognos' own skilled labor model was used to map the development of the labor supply up to 2035. Finally, the research team reflected the findings of these analyses for the study with additional subject matter experts from scientific institutes, industry associations, and companies.
The analysis focuses exclusively on Germany as a location; activities abroad were not considered.
Addition from 16.12.2024
The scenarios presented in the study on labor demand in the photovoltaic, wind energy and hydrogen sectors are based on an evaluation of subject-specific literature and third-party studies. These analyses and the scenarios developed there are based on the data from 2022 and do not reflect the dynamic growth that has since taken place in the expansion of photovoltaics, for example (with 15 GW added in each of 2023 and 2024). In the course of this expansion push, there has already been a significant increase in employment, which reduces the estimates of additional future demand up to 2030. Furthermore, it should be noted that further expansion up to 2030 is expected to be increasingly driven by ground-mounted systems, which are less labor-intensive. In this respect, the expectations based on 2022 tend to be interpreted as an upper limit.
The study (PDF, DIHK website, in German )
DIHK press release (in German)
Project team: Dr Oliver Ehrentraut, Alice Greschkow, Philipp Kreuzer, Hauke Toborg, Lauritz Wandhoff
Last update: 16.12.2024
Project Manager
Partner, Director, Head of Economics Division
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