„Structural change particularly affects the peripheral areas of Central Germany.“ Fabian Malik, Project coordinator In the coming decades, the cities of Leipzig and Halle (Saale) will continue to expand their role as growth centres in Central Germany (Mitteldeutschen Revier). In contrast, the peripheral regions in the districts, in particular, face major demographic and economic challenges. Further findings of the investigation: the population in Central Germany is shrinking, aging, and requires increasing levels of care the number of people in employment is declining – the shortage of skilled workers is worsening in sub-regions the economy in Central Germany continues to grow – but is still below the national average As a result of demographic change, the number of people in employment in the innovation region will fall by a total of 13.4 percent to 855,000 in 2040. Development in the cities is moderate, with declines of between 2.7 percent (Leipzig) and 8.5 percent (Halle). In comparison, some districts show significant falls between 23.4 percent (Anhalt-Bitterfeld) and 29.5 percent (Mansfeld-Südharz). Socio-economic analysis The study was conducted for the “Innovation Region Central Germany,” which was particularly affected by the coal phase-out and structural change. With the help of our regional econometric REGINA model the authors examined the development of various demographic and economic indicators up to the year 2040. Among other things, the focus was on the development of the number of inhabitants, the number of households, childcare, training, and care places, as well as the development of gross value added in different sectors, the number of people in employment, and income in the region. About the “Innovation Region Central Germany” structural change project As part of the “Innovation Region Central Germany” project, the European Metropolitan Region of Central Germany is developing new strategies and projects for structural change in the region, in collaboration with Altenburger Land, Anhalt-Bitterfeld, Burgenlandkreis, Mansfeld-Südharz, North Saxony, and Saalekreis, as well as the cities of Halle (Saale) and Leipzig. The project is funded by the Federal Government, the Free State of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and the Free State of Thuringia within the framework of the joint federal-state task “Improvement of the Regional Economic Structure” (GRW). Links and downloads Summary of the study “Socio-Economic Perspective 2040” (PDF in German) Extended version of the study “Socio-Economic Perspective 2040” (PDF in German) Press release of the Metropolitan Region of Central Germany (in German) Project team: Fabian Malik, Jonathan Eberle, Stefan Moog, Renke Janshen, Dr Olaf Arndt Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Fabian Malik Senior Project Manager View profile Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. Evaluation of the ERDF programmes of several federal states ongoing | Project How effectively do the federal states utilise ERDF funding? Prognos supports various federal states with the evaluation of their ERDF programmes. Read more Evaluation of ERDF funding for SMEs ongoing | Project How effective is EU support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)? On behalf of the European Commission, Prognos evaluates together with CSIL the ERDF funding in the period from 2014 to 2020. Read more Guest article in SPIEGEL: How Europe's economy can catch up with the USA and China 2024 | Expertise A race to catch up - this is what Europe needs if it is not to be left behind by the USA and China. In the SPIEGEL guest article, Christian Böllhoff calls for a new match plan with clear priorities for the new EU legislative period. Read more Developing the Rhein-Kreis Neuss economic development strategy 2024 | Project Rhein-Kreis Neuss is focusing on more innovative economic development to strengthen its business location. Prognos was instrumental in the development of the new strategy. Read more Realignment of European structural funds ongoing | Project Prognos and partners are developing conclusions for the further development of the European structural funds after 2027 by integrating relevant stakeholders. Read more Hybrid seminar on cohesion policy support for RTDI 23. April 2024 | Event Prognos and its partners are organising a hybrid seminar on the evaluation of cohesion policy support for research, technological development and innovation (RTDI). Read more Spring workshop of the AK Structural Policy of DeGEval 25. - 26. April 2024 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will give a presentation on "Theory-based (impact) evaluations in a comprehensive evaluation approach - an experience report from the accompanying evaluation in ERDF-NRW 2014-2020" at the spring workshop of the DeGEval Structural Policy Working Group. Read more European Cluster Conference 2024 7. - 8. May 2024 | Event The European Cluster Conference 2024 brings the key players in the European cluster economy together in one place. The Prognos team around Head of EU-Services Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer is providing input both as part of our work for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform and for the NRW.innovativ competence centre. Read more Support for the Just Transition Platform 2024 | Project Through the Just Transition Platform (JTP), the EU supports the member states and regions in achieving their climate targets in a fair manner. Prognos provided the JTP with in-depth analyses and knowledge management. Read more Efficient use of EU funding in Germany and France ongoing | Project The European Commission has commissioned an examination of the embedding of EU-funded financial instruments for regional development in Germany and France. Prognos is part of the study team. Read more Just Transition Platform Conference: Carbon-Intensive Regions 2023-04-27 | Event Stakeholders of the European chemical industry exchange on their activities for a just transition towards climate neutrality. Read more Cluster collaboration between the EU and Africa 2023 | Project Cooperation between the EU and Africa, which has intensified since 2000, warrants increased momentum. Prognos examined trade flows between the EU and South Africa, Senegal, and Kenya as well as the potential for further cooperation through cluster organisations. Read more Strengthening trade relations with Ukraine 2023 | Project “Clusters meet Regions” – Prognos examined trade relations between EU member states and Ukraine as well as potential for further cooperation. Read more Cluster Collaboration Lab Lund 2023 | Project Innovative business models for the future – this was the focus of the second edition of the Cluster Collaboration Lab in Lund, Sweden. Prognos provided the input paper for this interactive workshop. Read more Evaluation of the European Green Deal ongoing | Project How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO). Read more Clusters as drivers of regional development – Silesia 2022 | Project The third “Clusters meet Regions” event was dedicated to the Polish region of Silesia. An input paper for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform. Read more Just Transition Platform: Meeting of the Working Group on Chemicals 2022-10-26 | Event At the meeting of the JTP Working Group on Chemicals, proposals will be discussed to help EU regions with a strong chemical industry make a just transition to climate neutrality. Read more Zukunftsatlas 2022 Ranking for Germany’s regions Read more EU clusters and value chains with Singapore 2022 | Project Singapore and the EU seek to intensify their relations through targeted cluster-based cooperation. Prognos analysed the potential for future cooperation. Read more Evaluation Network Meeting of DG REGIO 2022-05-19 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer presents first results of a study for DG Regio. Read more Just Transition Platform Meeting: Coal Regions in Transition 2022-05-11 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer speaks at the fifth Just Transition Platform Meeting. Read more Circular economy potential for rural development 2022 | Project Equal living conditions in the city and in the country are a federal government goal. We are looking into how the circular economy can contribute to this for the Federal Ministry for Housing, Urban Development and Construction (BMWSB). Read more Clusters as drivers of regional development – Lithuania 2022 | Project Our input paper for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform’s second “Clusters meet Re-gions” event, presents the cluster landscape of Lithuania. Read more European Regional Development Fund: Evaluation of RTD-Investments 2021 | Project Evaluation of investments in Research & Technological Development infrastructures and activities supported by the ERDF from 2007 to 2013. Read more Cluster Initiatives Follow-up 2021 | Project For the European Commission, we evaluated the impact of the EU cluster initiatives Read more Climate-Neutral Germany 2045 2021 | Project Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050. Read more Evaluation of the cluster initiatives 2021 | Project For the EU Commission, we evaluate the EU cluster programmes together with CSES and IDEA Consulting Group. Read more Needs analysis of funding for Groningen 2020 | Project On behalf of the province of Groningen, Prognos calculates the possible allocation share of funding for the region from the Just Transition Fund. In particular, the possibilities of green hydrogen in the northern Netherlands are emphasised. Read more National Policies and Cohesion 2020 | Project Together with experts of the Politecnico di Milano and the Technopolis Group, Prognos researched trends of national and regional disparities. Read more Southern Upper Rhine future strategy 2020 | Project Prognos took a closer look at the region on behalf of the Southern Upper Rhine’s Chamber of Industry and Commerce. Read more ZDF Germany Study 2019 2019 | Project On behalf of ZDF, we examined the external living conditions for families and senior citizens in Germany's 401 districts and independent cities. Read more Impact Area Analysis Regions Düsseldorf-Kreis Mettmann / Rheinisches Revier 2019 | Project The impact analysis outlines the spatial links between the two regions. Read more Main Determinants of Regional Economic Resilience 2019 | Project What was the impact of the great recession on EU regions? Prognos Consultant Neysan Khabirpour contributed to a recent European Commission Working Paper. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® Project Zukunftsatlas 2022 Curious about how your region is currently perfo Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2019 2019 | Project How well equipped are Germany's districts and cities for the future? Who is ahead in the ranking, who needs to catch up? The Prognos Zukunftsatlas 2019 provides answers (in German). Read more ZDF Germany Study 2018 2018 | Project Where is the best place to live in Germany? Prognos investigated this question on behalf of ZDFzeit. Read more Fields of action for lignite regions 2018 | Project How can structural change in lignite mining areas succeed? A Prognos study commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Economics reveals possible approaches and instruments. Read more Coordination and harmonisation of ESI Funds and other EU Instruments 2018 | Project Has harmonization of the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESI Funds) and other EU instruments improved? This is the subject of a study by KPMG and Prognos commissioned by the European Commission. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2016 2016 | Project How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2004 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt. Read more Evaluation of Cohesion Policy programmes: Work Package 12 – Delivery Systems 2016 | Project Prognos and KPMG analysed the effectiveness and efficiency of cohesion policy implementation during the 2007-2013 period and identified the main underlying success factors and areas in need of development. Read more Support to large enterprises through the EU Cohesion Policy 2016 | Project On behalf of the EU Commission, Prognos and KPMG have investigated whether the financial aid for large enterprises through the EU Cohesion Policy between 2007 and 2013 had the desired effect. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2013 2013 | Project How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2013 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2010 2010 | Project How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2010 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® Industries 2009 2009 | Project “Prognos Zukunftsatlas® Industries 2009” focuses on the future fields that have potential for a strong increase in value creation over the next five to ten years. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2007 2007 | Project How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2007 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt. Read more Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2004 2004 | Project How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2004 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt. Read more Adobe Stock - CleverStock About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more