all projects

Final Report

National Policies and Cohesion

Client

European Commission

Year

2020


Together with experts of the Politecnico di Milano and the Technopolis Group, Prognos researched trends of national and regional disparities as well as the role of national policies to reduce these imbalances.

The economic disparities between the Member States and the regions of the EU remain a concern for the overall economic and social well-being of the continent. Therefore, the European Commission assigned this study in order to better understand the underlying trends behind between- and within-country disparities. The study is based on extensive quantitative analysis as well as simulation modelling, stakeholder interviews and case studies in selected Member States.

Results of the study

Regional disparities have been on the rise in many European Member States. Most Central and Eastern European Member States have a GDP-per-capita of less than 75 % of the EU-28 average. Similarly, regions in the Southern European Member States show significant gaps to leading regions. Since the economic crisis in 2008, this trend has turned negative again.

There are several reasons for this trend: The enlargement of the EU has favoured convergence between Member States but also exacerbated intra-national disparities. Similarly, the European Single Market and the introduction of the Euro helped convergence between Member States but also resulted in different effects on intra-national disparities;investments were made mainly in major cities. Regional disparities have their sources in either a different level of productivity among regions, or in the uneven distribution of growth assets. With a similar industrial composition across European regions or with a similar productivity, the disparities would in fact be much lower.

Suggestions for reducing the disparities

Despite the significant investments from the EU’s Cohesion Policy and national efforts, disparities remain deeply ingrained in the regional structures and are difficult to reverse. Nevertheless, national policies – especially if they are coordinated with the EU’s Cohesion Policy – can reduce imbalances;and the disparities might also be even higher without this policy. Investments in human capital, access to infrastructure, and improving governance appear to be the most effective instruments in this respect. 

The national policies should particularly focus on assets for growth and transformation, improve productivity in low output sectors or sectors that do not perform to their potential, take measures to balance the growth of major cities with regions that might be left behind, and focus on policies that are additional to and coordinated with Cohesion Policy.

To the study (PDF, European Commission Website)

Authors: Jan-Philipp Kramer, Paul Jeffrey, Janis Neufeld, Janosch Nellen, Moritz Schrapers, Neysan Khabirpour (Prognos AG); Roberta Capello, Roberto Camagni, Ugo Fratesi, Silvia Cerisola (POLIMI); Nikos Maroulis, Kinscö Izsak, Laurent Laurich (Technopolis Group)

 

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Efficient use of EU funding in Germany and France

ongoing
| Project

The European Commission has commissioned an examination of the embedding of EU-funded financial instruments for regional development in Germany and France. Prognos is part of the study team.

Just Transition Platform Conference: Carbon-Intensive Regions

| Event

Stakeholders of the European chemical industry exchange on their activities for a just transition towards climate neutrality.

Cluster collaboration between the EU and Africa

2023
| Project

Cooperation between the EU and Africa, which has intensified since 2000, warrants increased momentum. Prognos examined trade flows between the EU and South Africa, Senegal, and Kenya as well as the potential for further cooperation through cluster organisations.

Strengthening trade relations with Ukraine

2023
| Project

“Clusters meet Regions” – Prognos examined trade relations between EU member states and Ukraine as well as potential for further cooperation.

Cluster Collaboration Lab Lund

2023
| Project

Innovative business models for the future – this was the focus of the second edition of the Cluster Collaboration Lab in Lund, Sweden. Prognos provided the input paper for this interactive workshop.

DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal

ongoing
| Project

How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).

Clusters as drivers of regional development – Silesia

2022
| Project

The third “Clusters meet Regions” event was dedicated to the Polish region of Silesia. An input paper for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform.

Just Transition Platform: Meeting of the Working Group on Chemicals

| Event

At the meeting of the JTP Working Group on Chemicals, proposals will be discussed to help EU regions with a strong chemical industry make a just transition to climate neutrality.

Zukunftsatlas 2022


Ranking for Germany’s regions

EU clusters and value chains with Singapore

2022
| Project

Singapore and the EU seek to intensify their relations through targeted cluster-based cooperation. Prognos analysed the potential for future cooperation.

Evaluation Network Meeting of DG REGIO

| Event

Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer presents first results of a study for DG Regio.

Just Transition Platform Meeting: Coal Regions in Transition

| Event

Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer speaks at the fifth Just Transition Platform Meeting.

Circular economy potential for rural development

2022
| Project

Equal living conditions in the city and in the country are a federal government goal. We are looking into how the circular economy can contribute to this for the Federal Ministry for Housing, Urban Development and Construction (BMWSB).

Clusters as drivers of regional development – Lithuania

2022
| Project

Our input paper for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform’s second “Clusters meet Re-gions” event, presents the cluster landscape of Lithuania.

Support of the Just Transition Platform to the Green Deal

ongoing
| Project

Through the Just Transition Platform, the EU supports countries in achieving their climate goals. Prognos helps manage this platform with analytics and knowledge management.

European Regional Development Fund: Evaluation of RTD-Investments

2021
| Project

Evaluation of investments in Research & Technological Development infrastructures and activities supported by the ERDF from 2007 to 2013.

Cluster Initiatives Follow-up

2021
| Project

For the European Commission, we evaluated the impact of the EU cluster initiatives

Innovation region Central Germany 2040 – Socio-economic perspective

2021
| Project

The population in Central Germany is shrinking, aging, and requires increasing levels of care. However, the industries in focus have leverage – especially in cities.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Evaluation of the cluster initiatives

2021
| Project

For the EU Commission, we evaluate the EU cluster programmes together with CSES and IDEA Consulting Group.

Needs analysis of funding for Groningen

2020
| Project

On behalf of the province of Groningen, Prognos calculates the possible allocation share of funding for the region from the Just Transition Fund. In particular, the possibilities of green hydrogen in the northern Netherlands are emphasised.

Southern Upper Rhine future strategy

2020
| Project

Prognos took a closer look at the region on behalf of the Southern Upper Rhine’s Chamber of Industry and Commerce.

ZDF Germany Study 2019

2019
| Project

On behalf of ZDF, we examined the external living conditions for families and senior citizens in Germany's 401 districts and independent cities.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2019

2019
| Project

How well equipped are Germany's districts and cities for the future? Who is ahead in the ranking, who needs to catch up? The Prognos Zukunftsatlas 2019 provides answers (in German).

Impact Area Analysis Regions Düsseldorf-Kreis Mettmann / Rheinisches Revier

2019
| Project

The impact analysis outlines the spatial links between the two regions.

Main Determinants of Regional Economic Resilience

2019
| Project

What was the impact of the great recession on EU regions? Prognos Consultant Neysan Khabirpour contributed to a recent European Commission Working Paper.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas®

Project

Zukunftsatlas 2022 Curious about how your region is currently perfo

Coordination and harmonisation of ESI Funds and other EU Instruments

2018
| Project

Has harmonization of the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESI Funds) and other EU instruments improved? This is the subject of a study by KPMG and Prognos commissioned by the European Commission.

ZDF Germany Study 2018

2018
| Project

Where is the best place to live in Germany? Prognos investigated this question on behalf of ZDFzeit.

Fields of action for lignite regions

2018
| Project

How can structural change in lignite mining areas succeed? A Prognos study commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Economics reveals possible approaches and instruments.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2016

2016
| Project

How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2004 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

Evaluation of Cohesion Policy programmes: Work Package 12 – Delivery Systems

2016
| Project

Prognos and KPMG analysed the effectiveness and efficiency of cohesion policy implementation during the 2007-2013 period and identified the main underlying success factors and areas in need of development.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2013

2013
| Project

How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2013 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2010

2010
| Project

How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2010 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® Industries 2009

2009
| Project

“Prognos Zukunftsatlas® Industries 2009” focuses on the future fields that have potential for a strong increase in value creation over the next five to ten years.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2007

2007
| Project

How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2007 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2004

2004
| Project

How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2004 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more