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Final Report

National Policies and Cohesion

Client

European Commission

Year

2020


Together with experts of the Politecnico di Milano and the Technopolis Group, Prognos researched trends of national and regional disparities as well as the role of national policies to reduce these imbalances.

The economic disparities between the Member States and the regions of the EU remain a concern for the overall economic and social well-being of the continent. Therefore, the European Commission assigned this study in order to better understand the underlying trends behind between- and within-country disparities. The study is based on extensive quantitative analysis as well as simulation modelling, stakeholder interviews and case studies in selected Member States.

Results of the study

Regional disparities have been on the rise in many European Member States. Most Central and Eastern European Member States have a GDP-per-capita of less than 75 % of the EU-28 average. Similarly, regions in the Southern European Member States show significant gaps to leading regions. Since the economic crisis in 2008, this trend has turned negative again.

There are several reasons for this trend: The enlargement of the EU has favoured convergence between Member States but also exacerbated intra-national disparities. Similarly, the European Single Market and the introduction of the Euro helped convergence between Member States but also resulted in different effects on intra-national disparities;investments were made mainly in major cities. Regional disparities have their sources in either a different level of productivity among regions, or in the uneven distribution of growth assets. With a similar industrial composition across European regions or with a similar productivity, the disparities would in fact be much lower.

Suggestions for reducing the disparities

Despite the significant investments from the EU’s Cohesion Policy and national efforts, disparities remain deeply ingrained in the regional structures and are difficult to reverse. Nevertheless, national policies – especially if they are coordinated with the EU’s Cohesion Policy – can reduce imbalances;and the disparities might also be even higher without this policy. Investments in human capital, access to infrastructure, and improving governance appear to be the most effective instruments in this respect. 

The national policies should particularly focus on assets for growth and transformation, improve productivity in low output sectors or sectors that do not perform to their potential, take measures to balance the growth of major cities with regions that might be left behind, and focus on policies that are additional to and coordinated with Cohesion Policy.

To the study (PDF, European Commission Website)

Authors: Jan-Philipp Kramer, Paul Jeffrey, Janis Neufeld, Janosch Nellen, Moritz Schrapers, Neysan Khabirpour (Prognos AG); Roberta Capello, Roberto Camagni, Ugo Fratesi, Silvia Cerisola (POLIMI); Nikos Maroulis, Kinscö Izsak, Laurent Laurich (Technopolis Group)

 

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Support for the Saxony-Anhalt Citizens' Advisory Board on Structural Change

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Prognos supports the Citizens' Advisory Council in incorporating the perspectives of the population into decision-making processes and advises the responsible staff unit of the State Chancellery.

Evaluation of the ERDF programmes of several federal states

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How effectively do the federal states utilise ERDF funding? Prognos supports various federal states with the evaluation of their ERDF programmes.

Evaluation of ERDF funding for SMEs

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How effective is EU support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)? On behalf of the European Commission, Prognos evaluates together with CSIL the ERDF funding in the period from 2014 to 2020.

Guest article in SPIEGEL: How Europe's economy can catch up with the USA and China

2024
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A race to catch up - this is what Europe needs if it is not to be left behind by the USA and China. In the SPIEGEL guest article, Christian Böllhoff calls for a new match plan with clear priorities for the new EU legislative period.

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Rhein-Kreis Neuss is focusing on more innovative economic development to strengthen its business location. Prognos was instrumental in the development of the new strategy.

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Hybrid seminar on cohesion policy support for RTDI

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Prognos and its partners are organising a hybrid seminar on the evaluation of cohesion policy support for research, technological development and innovation (RTDI).

Spring workshop of the AK Structural Policy of DeGEval

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Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will give a presentation on "Theory-based (impact) evaluations in a comprehensive evaluation approach - an experience report from the accompanying evaluation in ERDF-NRW 2014-2020" at the spring workshop of the DeGEval Structural Policy Working Group.

European Cluster Conference 2024

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The European Cluster Conference 2024 brings the key players in the European cluster economy together in one place. The Prognos team around Head of EU-Services Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer is providing input both as part of our work for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform and for the NRW.innovativ competence centre.

Support for the Just Transition Platform

2024
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Just Transition Platform Conference: Carbon-Intensive Regions

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2023
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2023
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“Clusters meet Regions” – Prognos examined trade relations between EU member states and Ukraine as well as potential for further cooperation.

Cluster Collaboration Lab Lund

2023
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Evaluation of the European Green Deal

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Clusters as drivers of regional development – Silesia

2022
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The third “Clusters meet Regions” event was dedicated to the Polish region of Silesia. An input paper for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform.

Just Transition Platform: Meeting of the Working Group on Chemicals

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At the meeting of the JTP Working Group on Chemicals, proposals will be discussed to help EU regions with a strong chemical industry make a just transition to climate neutrality.

Zukunftsatlas 2022


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EU clusters and value chains with Singapore

2022
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Singapore and the EU seek to intensify their relations through targeted cluster-based cooperation. Prognos analysed the potential for future cooperation.

Evaluation Network Meeting of DG REGIO

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Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer presents first results of a study for DG Regio.

Just Transition Platform Meeting: Coal Regions in Transition

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Circular economy potential for rural development

2022
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Clusters as drivers of regional development – Lithuania

2022
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Our input paper for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform’s second “Clusters meet Re-gions” event, presents the cluster landscape of Lithuania.

European Regional Development Fund: Evaluation of RTD-Investments

2021
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Evaluation of investments in Research & Technological Development infrastructures and activities supported by the ERDF from 2007 to 2013.

Cluster Initiatives Follow-up

2021
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For the European Commission, we evaluated the impact of the EU cluster initiatives

Innovation region Central Germany 2040 – Socio-economic perspective

2021
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The population in Central Germany is shrinking, aging, and requires increasing levels of care. However, the industries in focus have leverage – especially in cities.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
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Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Evaluation of the cluster initiatives

2021
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Needs analysis of funding for Groningen

2020
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Southern Upper Rhine future strategy

2020
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ZDF Germany Study 2019

2019
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Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2019

2019
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Impact Area Analysis Regions Düsseldorf-Kreis Mettmann / Rheinisches Revier

2019
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Main Determinants of Regional Economic Resilience

2019
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ZDF Germany Study 2018

2018
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Fields of action for lignite regions

2018
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How can structural change in lignite mining areas succeed? A Prognos study commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Economics reveals possible approaches and instruments.

Coordination and harmonisation of ESI Funds and other EU Instruments

2018
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Has harmonization of the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESI Funds) and other EU instruments improved? This is the subject of a study by KPMG and Prognos commissioned by the European Commission.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2016

2016
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How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2004 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

Evaluation of Cohesion Policy programmes: Work Package 12 – Delivery Systems

2016
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Prognos and KPMG analysed the effectiveness and efficiency of cohesion policy implementation during the 2007-2013 period and identified the main underlying success factors and areas in need of development.

Support to large enterprises through the EU Cohesion Policy

2016
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Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2013

2013
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How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2013 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2010

2010
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How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2010 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® Industries 2009

2009
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Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2007

2007
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How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2007 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2004

2004
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How are Germany's regions positioned for the future? The 2004 study in cooperation with Handelsblatt.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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