Research question and objective What is the impact of research and innovation support from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and how can we improve policy instruments in the future? On behalf of DG Regio and in cooperation with the Centre for Industrial Studies (CSIL) and the Technopolis Group, we evaluated investments in Research and Technological Development (RTD) infrastructures and activities supported by the ERDF in the 2007 - 2013 programming period. Our approach Inspired by theory-based impact evaluation, and by combining qualitative and quantitative methods, we examined 53 ERDF Operational Programs with RTD investments amounting to EUR 14.64 billion. These four levels of analysis were the basis of the evaluation: Operational Program Level: Evaluation of strategies and policy mixes Country-level: Use of policy instruments in different national contexts Policy Instrument level: Analysis of chains of effects and mechanisms (“Theories of Change”) Project and beneficiary level: Description, analysis and classification of RTD projects in 18 EU-Member States Key results The main achievement of ERDF support for RTD investment in the period 2007-2013 is a positive and significant contribution to the observed improvement of R&D capacities in the target regions, particularly in EU13 regions. Evidence shows that ERDF investments aimed at modernising education facilities are positively correlated to the growth rate in the number of tertiary-educated people and the growth rate of tertiary-educated persons employed in science and technology, in 2007-2017 and within the target regions R&D capacities were further improved in terms of the number of R&D personnel and researchers, with an average growth rate in the target regions of 40 percent between 2007 and 2017. Evidence also points to a positive and statistically significant relationship between ERDF support and the growth rate in the number of scientific publications More limited, however, was the capacity of funded projects to generate economic benefits from the commercial valorisation of R&D results and enhance the knowledge transfer capacities and mechanisms from scientific to industry partners. No statistically significant relationships are found in the econometric analysis between ERDF support and the growth rate of technological outputs. Moreover, the ERDF was less effective in facilitating the coordination and interactions between all the actors involved in the innovation ecosystem, thus addressing the system failures. The findings suggest that, given the importance of contextual factors, the right combination of ERDF instruments within a broader system of enabling conditions and supporting factors is necessary to achieve the objective of improving regional competitiveness. Links and downloads Final report (ec.europa.eu) Executive summary (ec.europa.eu) The RTD Cookbook for ERDF supported investments Project Team: Jan Kramer, Moritz Glettenberg, Anja Breuer, Neysan Khabirpour Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Neysan Khabirpour Project Manager, Deputy Head of EU-Services View profile Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer Partner, Head of EU Services View profile Anja Breuer Expert View profile Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. German industry’s resilience and sovereignty 2025 | Project German industry is heavily dependent on raw materials and intermediate products from abroad, especially from China. Prognos analysed supply chains and developed recommendations for action. Read more Evaluation of the ‘Innovative University’ funding initiative ongoing | Project How can innovations be implemented in practice? This is where the BMBF's ‘Innovative University’ funding initiative comes in. Prognos and Fraunhofer ISI are evaluating the programme. Read more From research to practice: technologies that make a difference ongoing | Project The Fraunhofer IGD develops software solutions in the field of visual computing. Sounds complicated? We show where these technologies solve specific problems. Read more Interregional Innovation Investment: The I3 Support Facility ongoing | Project The I3 Support Facility boosts interregional projects in smart specialisation, with Prognos leading the Capacity Building Hub. Read more Expert roundtable on the European Investment Bank (EIB) support to Cohesion Policy 24. March 2025 | Event Dr. Jan-Philipp Kramer will participate in the Expert Roundtable with selected representatives from EU institutions and networks to discuss priorities for cohesion policy post-2027 and the optimization of EIB support. Read more Forum on the Future of Cohesion Policy 20. March 2025 | Event At the invitation of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, Dr. Jan-Philipp Kramer will participate in an expert forum with representatives from EU institutions, regions, and academia to discuss the future of cohesion policy. Read more A more centralised and sectoral post-27 cohesion policy? 17. March 2025 | Event Will a more centralised and sectoral approach reshape the EU's regional development? Prognos and EURADA invite you to discuss this with experts on regional development and cohesion policy. Read more Support for the progress reports of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) ongoing | Project Prognos will support the Federal Ministry of Economics in preparing the NECP progress reports until 2027. Read more Cohesion Policy beyond 2027 13. February 2025 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will discuss the results of our study on the future governance of European cohesion policy with representatives from politics, science and practice. Prognos is a co-organiser. Read more Future governance of EU Cohesion Policy after 2027 2024 | Project With the involvement of relevant stakeholders, Prognos and partners developed conclusions for the further development of European structural funding after 2027. Read more AI race: Who can put Germany on the fast track? 2024 | Expertise In the field of AI, we are lagging behind internationally. But there are also opportunities. Together with the Handelsblatt, we show which players in the German AI landscape give cause for hope. Read more Evaluation of the Eurostars-2 funding programme 2024 | Project Eurostars supports cross-border research cooperation between SMEs in Europe. On behalf of the BMBF, Prognos analysed the effectiveness of the Eurostars 2 programme at national level. Read more North Rhine-Westphalia Green Economy Report 2024 2024 | Project The green economy is a driving force in North Rhine-Westphalia. Both gross value added and the number of people in employment are increasing at a faster rate than in other sectors of the economy. Read more Green Tech Atlas 2025 ongoing | Project On behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Prognos compiled the Green Tech Atlas 2025. The atlas provides a comprehensive overview of the cross-sectional environmental tech-nology and resource efficiency industries. Read more Contribution of the EU Framework Programmes for Research and Innovation to an innovative Europe 2024 | Project With the Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe programmes, the EU Commission is promoting research and innovation in Europe. Prognos evaluated parts of the funding programmes in terms of their contribution to an innovative Europe. Read more Contribution of the EU Framework Programmes for Research and Innovation to a Resilient Europe 2024 | Project With the Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe programmes, the EU Commission is promoting research and innovation in Europe. Prognos evaluated parts of the funding programmes in terms of their contribution to a resilient Europe. Read more Evaluation of the ERDF programmes of several federal states ongoing | Project How effectively do the federal states utilise ERDF funding? Prognos supports various federal states with the evaluation of their ERDF programmes. Read more European Evaluation Biennial Conference 27. September 2024 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer and Justyna Kramarczyk talk with other participants about the results of their work on EU-wide ex-post evaluations of cohesion policy support for research and development. Read more Monitoring and evaluation of the North Rhine-Westphalian innovation strategy (RIS3) ongoing | Project As part of ERDF funding 2021-2027, the state of North Rhine-Westphalia has developed a regional innovation strategy (RIS3). Prognos is responsible for monitoring and evaluating the strategy. Read more Germany Potential Index: Digitalisation to counter the skilled-worker shortage 2024 | Project The skilled-worker shortage is only due to get worse in the future. Our Potential Index shows: Increased digitalisation can help to cushion the negative consequences of the skilled-worker shortage in Germany. Read more Foresight on Demand: Future-oriented expertise for the EU ongoing | Project As part of the Foresight on Demand consultancy contract, the European Commission is provided with future-orientated knowledge. Prognos supports the expert consortium. Read more Strengthening Europe’s innovation power ongoing | Project Prognos supports the European Commission’s General Commission for Research and Innovation (DG RTD) in the strategic development of EU research and innovation policy. Read more Evaluation of the Central Innovation Programme for SMEs (ZIM) 2024 | Project The Central Innovation Programme for SMEs (ZIM) strengthens the innovative power of small and medium-sized enterprises. This is shown by our evaluation for the BMWK. Read more Federal Report on Research and Innovation 2024 2024 | Project In the 2024 Federal Research and Innovation Report (BuFi), the Federal Government presents their current research and innovation policy goals and measures. Once again, Prognos assisted the BMBF in the preparation of the report. Read more Germany: Industry sectors put to the test 2024 | Expertise Mechanical engineering, the automotive industry, pharmaceuticals: In which sectors is Germany still a leader? On behalf of the Handelsblatt, we examined how successfully Germany is holding its own against its international competitors. Read more Federal Research and Innovation Report ongoing | Project The Federal Government regularly presents their current research and innovation policy goals and measures in the Federal Research and Innovation Report. Prognos assists the BMBF in the preparation of the report. Read more Hybrid seminar on cohesion policy support for RTDI 23. April 2024 | Event Prognos and its partners are organising a hybrid seminar on the evaluation of cohesion policy support for research, technological development and innovation (RTDI). Read more Training On The Entrepreneurial Discovery Process (EDP) & Governance Of Smart Specialisation Strategies (S3) 15. - 19. April 2024 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will be a speaker on the opening panel on "The role of the Entrepreneurial Discovery Process (EDP) in smart specialisation" and will give input on the positioning of the Entrepreneurial Discovery Process in politics and on EDP-related communication in two further presentations. Read more Clusters meet Regions: Milan 26. - 27. March 2024 | Event As part of our work for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform (ECCP), Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer presents an input paper on the cluster landscape of Lombardy, outlining important considerations for the future development of the region. Read more Trend Report 2024: Germany on its path to digital administration - an update 2024 | Project Where does Germany stand on its path to digital administration? The Trendreport 2024 gives an update and recommendations for the digitalisation of the public administration system. Read more Electromobility standards 2024 | Project The electromobility of the future will interact with other intelligent systems. But for this to be possible digital technologies will have to be standardised. The study shows in which areas standardisation is particularly relevant and how standards are established. Read more Innovations in domestic care ongoing | Project A skilled worker shortage and increased numbers of people requiring care: domestic care is facing major challenges. Prognos is evaluates the implementation of the Buurtzorg approach, an innovative community care model, for the Saxon State Ministry for Social Affairs and Social Cohesion. Read more Green light for the Rhineland-Palatinate Innovation Agency 2023 | Project The Rhineland-Palatinate Innovation Agency was co-developed by Prognos in 2022. Prognos has continued to support the innovation agency throughout the start of its operational work. Read more Value added of German pharmaceutical exports 2023 | Project Compared to other export sectors, German pharmaceutical exports show above-average levels of innovation and value-added intensity. However, the industry is falling behind in the global re-search competition. This is shown by a new study commissioned by Roche. Read more Dossier: The role of clusters in regional transformation processes 2023 | Project update The dossier, which was created as part of the NRW.innovativ competence centre, highlights the role that cluster organisations play in the digital and green transformation in NRW. Read more The potential of smart specialisation strategies 2023 | Project In collaboration with Prof. Dominique Foray, Prognos compiled a policy brief identifying the potential of smart specialisation strategies for driving forward structural transformation. Read more Green Tech: Digital technologies and sustainability ongoing | Project The Federal Ministry of Economics promotes digital technologies that drive forward the economy’s green transformation. Together with partners, we are responsible for the accompanying research. Read more Clusters as boosters of regional development in Skåne 2023 | Project Clusters can function as a stimulus for innovation in industrial ecosystems. This is shown by a European Union’s European Cluster Collaboration Platform impulse paper that uses the Swedish coastal region of Skåne as a case study. Read more Evaluation of the federal grants to GTAI 2022 | Project The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively. Read more Purpose Economy model 2023 | Project Could purpose become the model for business and society? We investigated this as part of our work for the Future Office and compared it with other scenarios. Read more Evaluation of Eurostars-2, the European SME support programme 2023 | Project On behalf of the EU Commission, Prognos and its partners examined the Eurostars-2 SME fund-ing programme as part of the evaluation study of the European Framework Programmes Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe. Read more Accompanying research on the FONA strategy ongoing | Project The Research for Sustainability (FONA) funding programme is intended to contribute to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Will this target be achieved and which methods can be used to measure this? We investigate this together with partners for the BMBF. Read more Webinar: Monitoring the Transition to Circular Economy 2023-02-07 | Event Jannis Lambert and Tim Bichlmeier talk about monitoring concepts for the Circular Economy and present a self-assessment tool. Read more International Conference: Smart Specialisation 2022-10-19 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer takes part in a panel discussion on Intelligent Specialisation Strategies. Read more European Cluster Conference 2022 2022-09-27 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer and Lennart Galdiga inform in Prague about the competence centre "NRW.innovativ" and represent the European Cluster Collaboration Platform. Read more The future of trust in digital worlds 2022 | Project The internet is creating new forms of interaction that, in order to function, require our trust. Do we put our trust in technology or people? A BMBF Future Office study provides answers. Read more Findings from the cluster dialogues: The NRW cluster panorama 2022 | Project update The NRW Cluster Panorama defines five subject areas in which the greatest potential for the innovation ecosystem in NRW lies. Read more Triple Helix Conference 2022-06-28 | Event Dr. Jan-Philipp Kramer presents the study "Prioritisation in Smart Specialisation Strategies in the EU" at the 20th Triple Helix Conference. Read more Accompanying the Circular Cities and Regions Initiative (CCRI) ongoing | Project The CCRI focuses on the implementation of a circular economy in European cities and regions. Prognos is supporting the initiative as a project partner in the associated Coordination and Support Office. Read more Shifting the boundaries of technology and biology 2022 | Project Artificial organs or humanoid robots? The BMBF Future Office investigated how the combination of biological and technological systems could develop in the future. Read more Adobe Stock - CleverStock About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more