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How Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

Client

Climate Neutrality Foundation, Agora Energiewende and Agora Verkehrswende

Year

2021


„An ambitious climate policy by 2030 is a prerequisite for a climate-neutral Germany by 2045.“
Marco Wünsch, Principal

On the way to climate neutrality – as the study Climate Neutrality 2050 already showed – it is an ambitious but achievable interim goal for Germany to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent compared to 1990.

Three steps to climate neutrality

  1. A climate-neutral Germany is already possible by 2045. Compared to the current target year of 2050, this would mean almost one billion tonnes CO₂-equivalent less in the atmosphere. With such a target, Germany would once again become an international pioneer in climate protection and a lead market and lead provider for climate protection technologies.
  2. A reduction target of 65 percent by 2030 is suitable as a milestone on the path to climate neutrality in 2045 and creates the conditions for an accelerated transformation after 2030.
  3. Compared to the target year of 2050, climate neutrality in 2045 means more speed in structural change. In the expansion of renewable energies (RE), in climate-neutral industry and the switch to heat pumps and electric mobility, the transformation will be accelerated after 2030. In addition, the agricultural transition and the use of CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) will be brought forward.
Grafik: Treibhausgaseinsparungen und Maßhamen nach Sektoren
Prognos AG

Background

The study Climate-Neutral Germany 2045 was commissioned by the Climate Neutrality Foundation, Agora Energiewende and Agora Verkehrswende.
Prognos was in charge of the overall design of the scenarios in this study and was responsible for the overall project management. Prognos was also responsible for the building and energy sectors. The Öko-Institut was responsible for transport, agriculture, waste, land use and forestry. The Wuppertal Institute was responsible for the industry sector.


Summary of the study "Towards a Climate-Neutral Germany" (Website Agora, English)

Long version of the study (Website Agora, German)


Authors: Hans Dambeck, Florian Ess, Hanno Falkenberg, Dr. Andreas Kemmler, Dr. Almut Kirchner, Marcus Koepp, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr. Alexander Piégsa, Sina Scheffer, Dr. Thorsten Spillmann, Nils Thamling, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen, and others from Öko-Institut e. V. and Wuppertal Insitut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie gGmbH

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

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Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios.

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2022
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What role does the heat pump play in a 100-percent renewable electricity system compared to hydrogen heating? An analysis for the Climate Neutrality Foundation.

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The journey towards climate neutrality is gaining momentum. Hydrogen is a key building block to achieving it.

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Assessment of the security of supply until 2030 of the scenarios KN2050 and KN2045 from the study "Climate Neutral Germany".

EU’s Global Leadership in Renewables

2020
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Prognos, together with COWI, CEPS, and Capgemini invent, examines Europe's position and competitiveness in global renewable energy value chains.

8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition

2020
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For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

Prognos Charging Report 2020

2020
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The Prognos Charging Report 2020 conducted on behalf of EnBW (Energie Baden-Württemberg) provides an overview of the status quo of charging infrastructure.

Climate Path for Germany

2018
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Future of th electricity system II

2018
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How can the transition to a power supply based on renewable energies by 2050 be successfully managed? This question is answered by a study for WWF Germany.

Ex-post analysis of Swiss energy consumption 2015

2016
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Swiss energy consumption in the last 15 years has been slightly reduced. Technological progress and policy intervention played a central role, as shown by the analysis conducted by Prognos, TEP and Infras.

Energy scenarios for the Federal Government Energy Concept

2010
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The energy concept formulates scenario-based guidelines for a clean, reliable, and affordable energy supply.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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