all projects

Assessment of the security of supply up to the year 2030

Climate neutrality & security of supply in the electricity market

Client

Climate Neutrality Foundation

Year

2021


Prognos has conducted a short study on the topic of "Security of Supply" for the Stiftung Klimaneutralität (Climate Neutrality Foundation). The study illustrates how and whether the security of supply is achieved with the electricity system in the Prognos scenarios KN2050 and KN2045 from the study "Climate Neutral Germany".

For this purpose, our electricity system team has compared these scenarios with scenarios from the study on supply security in the electricity market commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) in 2019.

Secure power supply in the future

The scenarios of the "Climate Neutral Germany" study show a high level of supply security on the electricity market until 2030 and beyond. On the one hand, this can be seen from our electricity market modelling. On the other hand, this also emerges from a comparison with the detailed study commissioned by the BMWi from 2019 concerning electricity demand, the expansion of renewable energies, controllable power plant capacity, and import capacities. "The high security of supply on the electricity market can be maintained in an ambitious energy transition scenario in line with new European climate targets of 55% greenhouse gas savings in 2030 compared to 1990," explains project manager Hanno Falkenberg. Essential building blocks for ensuring the security of supply are the expansion of controllable power plant capacity in Germany and increased exchange capacities within Europe.

Market design & security of supply

The electricity market is characterized as an energy-only market. This means that only the amount of electricity produced is remunerated. Due to the balance group and balancing energy system, the balancing power, and the capacity reserve, the market is in principle suitable for stimulating the development of controllable power plant capacity in the long term.

Incentives such as time-variable tariffs for larger shares of electricity consumption should continue to be created to make demand more flexible. In addition, grid charges should in the future reflect the respective scarcity of the grid situation.

To the study on the website stiftung-klima.de (in German)

Authors: Elias Althoff, Hanno Falkenberg, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany

2023
| Project

How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW.

Communication support for the building of the 380 kV West Coast Line

2023
| Project

The extension of the energy network lays the foundation for the energy transition. Since 2019, Prognos has been supporting transmission system operator TenneT TSO GmbH with their project communication concerning the establishment of the new West Coast transmission line in Schleswig-Holstein.

Energy prices for industry, an international comparison

2023
| Project

Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030.

Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials

2023
| Project

Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.

Electricity price forecast 2023

2023
| Project

In the medium and long term, average wholesale electricity prices are above the 2019/2020 level. Our updated scenarios for the vbw.

Green electricity atlas

Project

What do the targets of the Renewable Energy Sources Act mean for the German regions? The Prognos Energieatlas shows the availability of green electricity – in all 400 districts and independent cities.

Gas balance: Saving efforts must be intensified

2023
| Project update

If savings continue to be as low as in January and February, the risk of a gas shortage will in-crease in the coming winter.

Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality

2023
| Project

How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures.

DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal

ongoing
| Project

How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).

11th Energy Transition Monitoring

2023
| Project

Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals.

Regulation of third-party access to heating networks

2022
| Project

The EU Commission wants to make third-party access to district heating networks mandatory. We assessed the consequences for Germany and the possible contribution to decarbonisation on behalf of the BMWK.

Interview with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung

2022
| Expertise

Energy expert Dr Almut Kirchner talks to the Neue Zürcher Zeitung about the Swiss energy system.

The world negotiates on climate

2022
| Expertise

On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise.

Electricity price forecast

2022
| Project

How will the price of electricity develop over the next few years? A scenario calculation of wholesale electricity prices for the vbw.

Climate-neutral electricity sector 2035

2022
| Project

This analysis for Agora Energiewende shows how the transformation of the German electricity sector can succeed by 2035.

Comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios

2022
| Project

Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios.

Decentralised heat supply in a climate-neutral Germany

2022
| Project

What role does the heat pump play in a 100-percent renewable electricity system compared to hydrogen heating? An analysis for the Climate Neutrality Foundation.

Hydrogen: Energy carrier of the future?

2021
| Project

The journey towards climate neutrality is gaining momentum. Hydrogen is a key building block to achieving it.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

EU’s Global Leadership in Renewables

2020
| Project

Prognos, together with COWI, CEPS, and Capgemini invent, examines Europe's position and competitiveness in global renewable energy value chains.

8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition

2020
| Project

For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

Prognos Charging Report 2020

2020
| Project

The Prognos Charging Report 2020 conducted on behalf of EnBW (Energie Baden-Württemberg) provides an overview of the status quo of charging infrastructure.

Climate Path for Germany

2018
| Project

How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI).

Future of th electricity system II

2018
| Project

How can the transition to a power supply based on renewable energies by 2050 be successfully managed? This question is answered by a study for WWF Germany.

Ex-post analysis of Swiss energy consumption 2015

2016
| Project

Swiss energy consumption in the last 15 years has been slightly reduced. Technological progress and policy intervention played a central role, as shown by the analysis conducted by Prognos, TEP and Infras.

Energy scenarios for the Federal Government Energy Concept

2010
| Project

The energy concept formulates scenario-based guidelines for a clean, reliable, and affordable energy supply.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more