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Assessment of the security of supply up to the year 2030

Climate neutrality & security of supply in the electricity market


Stiftung Klimaneutralität



Prognos has conducted a short study on the topic of "Security of Supply" for the Stiftung Klimaneutralität (Climate Neutrality Foundation). The study illustrates how and whether the security of supply is achieved with the electricity system in the Prognos scenarios KN2050 and KN2045 from the study "Climate Neutral Germany".

For this purpose, our electricity system team has compared these scenarios with scenarios from the study on supply security in the electricity market commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) in 2019.

Secure power supply in the future

The scenarios of the "Climate Neutral Germany" study show a high level of supply security on the electricity market until 2030 and beyond. On the one hand, this can be seen from our electricity market modelling. On the other hand, this also emerges from a comparison with the detailed study commissioned by the BMWi from 2019 concerning electricity demand, the expansion of renewable energies, controllable power plant capacity, and import capacities. "The high security of supply on the electricity market can be maintained in an ambitious energy transition scenario in line with new European climate targets of 55% greenhouse gas savings in 2030 compared to 1990," explains project manager Hanno Falkenberg. Essential building blocks for ensuring the security of supply are the expansion of controllable power plant capacity in Germany and increased exchange capacities within Europe.

Market design & security of supply

The electricity market is characterized as an energy-only market. This means that only the amount of electricity produced is remunerated. Due to the balance group and balancing energy system, the balancing power, and the capacity reserve, the market is in principle suitable for stimulating the development of controllable power plant capacity in the long term.

Incentives such as time-variable tariffs for larger shares of electricity consumption should continue to be created to make demand more flexible. In addition, grid charges should in the future reflect the respective scarcity of the grid situation.

To the study on the website (in German)

Authors: Elias Althoff, Hanno Falkenberg, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen

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Hanno Falkenberg

Project Manager

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Marco Wünsch


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Inka Ziegenhagen

Senior Project Manager

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Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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