all projects

Annual Energy
Transition Monitoring

Client

vbw – Bavarian Industry Association

Year

ongoing


What is the status of the German energy transition? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw – Bavarian Industry Association.

Monitoring set-up and evaluation

We examined four areas in more depth to assess the extent to which the energy transition has achieved its targets:

  • Security of supply (power outage, expansion of power grids, network operator intervention)
  • Affordability (industrial and household electricity prices)
  • Efficiency (power consumption, final energy productivity, primary energy consumption) and the share of renewable energy in gross electricity consumption
  • Environmental compatibility (greenhouse gas emissions; renovation rate, heating structure; alternative drives and charging points in transport)

We developed a traffic light system for the evaluation of selected indicators, to which the numbers 1 to 3 were additionally assigned for the formation of mean values. “Green” (= 1) means a positive rating, “Yellow” (= 2) means a critical rating and “Red” (= 3) means a negative rating.

The Bavarian Energy Program’s quantified targets and the Federal Government’s energy concept as well as targets defined in laws such as the EEG, serve as the basis for assessment. Where no information is available, we have defined a target path or appropriate reference values have been defined. For the purpose of the environmental compatibility assessment, greenhouse gas emissions were used.

Background: Germany’s Energy Policy

In autumn 2010, the German Federal Government defined quantitative targets for achieving a secure, economical and environmentally and climate-friendly energy supply in the long term. Increasing energy productivity and expanding renewable energies have since played a decisive role.

With the Bundestag’s adoption of the Climate Protection Act in December 2019, the Federal Government set itself the goal of long-term greenhouse gas neutrality by the year 2050. Until the year 2030, the reduction target of 55 percent compared to 1990, continues to apply.

Last update: 05.03.2024

Previous monitorings

12th Energy Transition Monitoring

2024
| Project

The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red.

11th Energy Transition Monitoring

2023
| Project

Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals.

10. Monitoring der Energiewende

2022
| Project

Wie haben sich Energieverbrauch und Emissionen in Bezug auf die Ziele der Energiewende entwickelt? Im Energiewendemonitoring bewertet Prognos im Auftrag der Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft die Situation in 2020.

9. Monitoring der Energiewende

2021
| Project

Zum neunten Mal in Folge bilanziert Prognos im Auftrag der vbw – Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. den Verlauf der Energiewende in Deutschland und Bayern.

8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition

2020
| Project

For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

7. Monitoring of the Energy System Transformation

2019
| Project

For the seventh time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

6. Monitoring der Energiewende

2017
| Project

Zum sechsten Mal in Folge bilanziert Prognos im Auftrag der vbw – Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. den Verlauf der Energiewende in Deutschland und Bayern.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

View profile

Mehr Studien & Projekte zu diesem Thema

More studies & projects on this topic

Economic impact analysis for selected SDGs

ongoing
| Project

A foundation group commissioned us to use KPIs to visualise the impact of its activities within identified focus SDGs.

Electricity grid expansion makes headway

2020
| Project

For over 15 years now Prognos has been bringing together the actors concerned by the expansion of the electricity grid and facilitating dialogue between them – from the Danish to the Swiss bor-der.

Support for the Just Transition Platform

2024
| Project

Through the Just Transition Platform (JTP), the EU supports the member states and regions in achieving their climate targets in a fair manner. Prognos provided the JTP with in-depth analyses and knowledge management.

12th Energy Transition Monitoring

2024
| Project

The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red.

German energy market design

2024
| Project

In the coming years new renewable power plants will have to be built – but also flexible gas power plants, which can be used when required. We examined various incentive instruments on behalf of the vbw.

Alternative transport scenario for Germany

2024
| Project

Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development.

Ex-post analysis of energy consumption in Switzerland 2022

2023
| Project update

Final energy consumption in Switzerland for the year 2022 was around 4 percent less than in the year 2021. Mobility (32 percent) accounted for the largest share.

Socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland

ongoing
| Project

What will Switzerland look like in the future? A welfare state in a fair world or an energy guzzler in fortress Europe? We examine the potential impacts of different scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate path implementation in Baden-Württemberg

2024
| Project

In Baden-Württemberg, emissions are to be reduced by a further 23% by 2030. As part of a multi-stage concept, Prognos examines the challenges and opportunities for action in the transfor-mation context.

Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany

2023
| Project

How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more