all projects

Annual Energy
Transition Monitoring

Client

vbw – Bavarian Industry Association

Year

ongoing


What is the status of the German energy transition? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw – Bavarian Industry Association.

Monitoring set-up and evaluation

We examined four areas in more depth to assess the extent to which the energy transition has achieved its targets:

  • Security of supply (power outage, expansion of power grids, network operator intervention)
  • Affordability (industrial and household electricity prices)
  • Efficiency (power consumption, final energy productivity, primary energy consumption) and the share of renewable energy in gross electricity consumption
  • Environmental compatibility (greenhouse gas emissions; renovation rate, heating structure; alternative drives and charging points in transport)

We developed a traffic light system for the evaluation of selected indicators, to which the numbers 1 to 3 were additionally assigned for the formation of mean values. “Green” (= 1) means a positive rating, “Yellow” (= 2) means a critical rating and “Red” (= 3) means a negative rating.

The Bavarian Energy Program’s quantified targets and the Federal Government’s energy concept as well as targets defined in laws such as the EEG, serve as the basis for assessment. Where no information is available, we have defined a target path or appropriate reference values have been defined. For the purpose of the environmental compatibility assessment, greenhouse gas emissions were used.

Background: Germany’s Energy Policy

In autumn 2010, the German Federal Government defined quantitative targets for achieving a secure, economical and environmentally and climate-friendly energy supply in the long term. Increasing energy productivity and expanding renewable energies have since played a decisive role.

With the Bundestag’s adoption of the Climate Protection Act in December 2019, the Federal Government set itself the goal of long-term greenhouse gas neutrality by the year 2050. Until the year 2030, the reduction target of 55 percent compared to 1990, continues to apply.

Last update: 05.03.2024

Previous monitorings

12th Energy Transition Monitoring

2024
| Project

The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red.

11th Energy Transition Monitoring

2023
| Project

Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals.

10. Monitoring der Energiewende

2022
| Project

Wie haben sich Energieverbrauch und Emissionen in Bezug auf die Ziele der Energiewende entwickelt? Im Energiewendemonitoring bewertet Prognos im Auftrag der Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft die Situation in 2020.

9. Monitoring der Energiewende

2021
| Project

Zum neunten Mal in Folge bilanziert Prognos im Auftrag der vbw – Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. den Verlauf der Energiewende in Deutschland und Bayern.

8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition

2020
| Project

For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

7. Monitoring of the Energy System Transformation

2019
| Project

For the seventh time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

6. Monitoring der Energiewende

2017
| Project

Zum sechsten Mal in Folge bilanziert Prognos im Auftrag der vbw – Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. den Verlauf der Energiewende in Deutschland und Bayern.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

View profile

Mehr Studien & Projekte zu diesem Thema

More studies & projects on this topic

Scenario analysis for the long-term strategy Negative emissions

ongoing
| Project

Prognos is preparing a scenario analysis for dena and the BMWK to calculate the demand for and potential of negative emissions in Germany.

Policy scenarios for the 2025-2027 projection reports

ongoing
| Project

Prognos and its partners support the preparation of the German government's 2025 to 2027 greenhouse gas projection reports.

Regulatory check for sales products in the energy industry

2024
| Project

Prognos supported an energy supplier with integrating sustainability requirements into the sales department’s product decision process.

Climate protection investments for the transformation of the energy system

2024
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, we calculated the investments that will be required to restructure capital stock in the course of the envisaged net zero transition.

Cost effectiveness of energy-efficiency housing refurbishment

2024
| Project

On behalf of the WWF Germany, using 32 case studies, we calculated the cost effectiveness of refurbishment measures for detached houses and apartment buildings.

Regulatory requirements for carbon accounting

2024
| Project

Which carbon accounting requirements will businesses have to be aware of in the future and what, specifically, will present the greatest challenge?

Greenhouse gas projections 2024 expert appraisal

2024
| Project

For the Council of Experts on Climate Change we conducted an expert appraisal to review the Federal Environment Agency’s greenhouse gas projection data.

Reducing emissions in primary industry

2024
| Project

Primary industry will have to achieve massive reductions in CO2 output by 2045. The Office of Technology Assessment commissioned Prognos with demonstrating the opportunities for a successful transformation.

Scenarios for calculating the cost of Germany’s transport transition

2024
| Project

What level of investment will be required to ensure a climate-neutral transport sector by 2045? We calculated this on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende, based on three scenarios.

Energy efficiency gap analysis

2024
| Project

Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport has remained relatively stable for the last 20 years. A study for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF) shows how policy can use efficiency measures to counteract this stagnation.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more