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7. Monitoring of the Energy System Transformation


vbw – Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.



The changes to the German and Bavarian energy systems introduced by the energy system transformation are associated with various challenges.

Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy system transformation in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. (Bavarian Business Association). The focus is on power generation and electricity supply. In addition, the aspects of energy efficiency and environmental compatibility are considered.

Now the seventh version of the monitoring has been published. However, objectives and data collection methods for some basic data have changed in recent years, so that some indicators and their evaluation methods also had to be adjusted. The comparability of the statements with those of previous years is therefore not guaranteed in all cases. The main results are as follows:

  • Germany's security of supply remains moderately satisfactory. The expansion of the grid is progressing only slowly, and the expectations of the grid operators regarding the completion dates of grid projects have worsened again compared to the last monitoring. Security of supply was nevertheless guaranteed in 2017.
  • The indicators for the industrial electricity price and the share of renewable energies in electricity consumption have improved - compared with the previous year - from a negative to a critical assessment.
  • The share of renewable energies in electricity consumption continued to rise. Here, Germany remains on track to achieve its targets. In Bavaria, the expansion of renewable energies has moved further away from the target path, resulting in a deterioration of the indicator.
  • The assessment of the affordability of electricity in Germany and Bavaria remains in the red.
  • Energy savings in Germany remain inadequate. The energy efficiency indicators show that Germany has been moving ever further away from its targets since 2014. Electricity consumption, final energy productivity and primary energy consumption not only fell short of the targets again in 2017 but also continued to fall short of them.
  • In Bavaria, the indicators for electricity consumption and primary energy consumption have improved. However, the more positive assessments cannot be attributed to an actual improvement, but to a change in the method of recording electricity consumption. However, values recorded using the old methodology were used to define the target path.
  • In Germany, greenhouse gas emissions have stagnated since 2014 and are well above the target path for the eighth consecutive year. CO2 emissions also rose in Bavaria. Per capita CO2 emissions were 6.3 tonnes in 2017, well above the target path, leading to a negative assessment.


In autumn 2010, the German Federal Government defined quantitative targets and then further developed them in order to achieve a secure, economic, environmentally and climate-friendly energy supply in the long term.

The increase in energy productivity and the expansion of renewable energies are of decisive importance.

Following the reactor catastrophe at Fukushima, the planned extension of the operating lives of nuclear power plants was replaced by an orderly phase-out plan for nuclear power, which will be implemented by 2022.

In October 2015, the Bavarian State Government presented the Bavarian Energy Programme, which includes quantitative targets up to 2025 and represents an update of the Bavarian Energy Concept from 2011. Increasing energy productivity and the expansion of renewable energies play decisive roles in the program. In Bavaria, too, objectives and data collection methods for some basic data have changed in recent years. Indicators and evaluation methods in the monitoring system have been adjusted accordingly.

Read the study (PDF, in German, Website vbw)

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Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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