11th Energy Transition Monitoring

The traffic lights are on red – at least in the context of the 11th Energy Transition Monitoring, conducted by Prognos for the Bavarian Industry Association (vbw). Two areas that in the previous year were on green, have deteriorated: Greenhouse gas emissions and the share of renewable energy in electricity consumption. Only the power outage times remains on green, with all other indicators in the negative range.

Dr Almut Kirchner, energy and climate protection expert at Prognos emphasises: “Germany and Bavaria have intensified their climate targets – but the measures and instruments are not sufficient for achieving these targets in the long term. The 11th Energy Transition Monitoring shows: The implementation and action gap has grown. In the long term, only the expansion of renewable energies will help, combined with the increased use of efficiency technologies in industry, the thermal transition, and the transport transition.”

Affordability: Strong price increases for electricity and gas

In our annual energy transition monitoring, we examined four areas that we classified and evaluated for the vbw:

1. Security of supply

• This was assured throughout 2021. The provision of national reserve capacities remained necessary in order to assure the stability of the electricity grid.
• Grid expansion occurred but was slow.
• Nevertheless, Germany remained among the countries where the quality of electricity supply was the best.

2. Affordability

• Electricity and gas prices for industry and private households rose sharply in 2021.
• This had significant consequences for energy costs in industry, services, agriculture, and households.
• This trend intensified in 2022.

3. Energy efficiency & renewables

• Energy savings remained insufficient in 2021.
• Since 2014, Germany has been moving further and further away from its efficiency targets.
• The share of renewable energies in electricity consumption deteriorated significantly compared to the previous year.
• Electricity consumption in Germany and Bavaria increased.

4. Environmental compatibility

• Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 4.5 percent in 2021 compared to 2020.
• Emissions from the transport sector remained at the level of the previous year, while the industrial sector and the energy sector once again emitted more emissions.
• We have seen little progress for many climate change mitigation indicators.

We have been investigating to what extent Germany is meeting its energy targets and where expansion is needed since 2012. For the first time, for this monitoring covering 2021, we looked at the data on gas consumption as well as on climate and environmental compatibility. Where data on 2022 were available, they were partly incorporated into the evaluation.

Classification: Expansion of renewables is key to the energy transition

Compared to 2020, overall energy consumption increased again. Only in the transport sector was consumption still below the level of 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2021, fossil fuels such as gas also became scarce – reflected in significantly higher energy prices, which continued to rise sharply in 2022. A stronger expansion of renewable energies could at least cushion this sharp price increase.

Overall, the indicators we have collected suggest that: In Germany, the energy transition is progressing too slowly. As the expansion of renewable energies in particular has been paralysed, a great deal will have to happen in the coming years to ensure that Germany achieves its energy and climate goals.

Links and downloads

Download study (PDF, in German)

More information (vbw website)

Project team: Dr Almut Kirchner, Sven Kreidelmeyer

Last update: 20.1.2023