vbw – Bavarian Industry Association
2024
Although price declines are expected from 2024 onwards, wholesale energy prices will remain significantly higher than the 2019/2020 level in the medium to long term. As shown in our Electricity Price Forecasts 2024 on behalf of the Bavarian Industry Association (vbw), the reasons for this are higher gas prices and increased costs for emissions trading certificates.
Momentum in global energy markets is currently high. However, little has changed in comparison with the Electricity Price Forecasts 2023:
The Prognos electricity market model was used to model future electricity market prices. The model maps all power plants in Europe and models the dispatch of the wholesale market on an hourly level. It assumes both exchange with countries abroad as well as covering the respective domestic burden.
For wholesale electricity prices an upper, middle and lower price development course was respectively generated. These are based on the relative price developments for natural gas and coal as well as EU emissions trading certificates. The scenarios are based on assumptions about future electricity use and the future installed capacity for electricity generation.
With regard to other parameters such as the expansion of renewable energies and the development of electricity demand, we have aligned ourselves with the current energy and climate policy goals of the Federal Government and the EU.
The study (vbw website in German)
Project team: Sven Kreidelmeyer, Aurel Wünsch
Latest update: 21.10.2024
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