all projects

Electricity price
forecast 2023


Bavarian Industry Association (vbw—Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.)



We expect average wholesale electricity prices to remain significantly higher in the coming years than in 2019/2020, due to higher gas prices and rising prices for emissions trading certificates. On behalf of the vbw - Association of Bavarian Business, we have updated our electricity price forecast from last year and extended the forecast horizon to 2050. For the new electricity price forecast, the Prognos electricity team calculated three scenarios. 

Volatility on the electricity markets is growing

  • The electricity price is heavily dependent on the development of gas prices.
  • Renewables represent the dominant generation technology and already account for around 83 percent of net electricity generation in 2030.
  • The fluctuation of monthly electricity prices will increase in the coming years. This is due to the strong expansion of photovoltaics, which increases seasonality: due to higher electricity production in summer, prices are lower in the summer months than in winter.
  • Fluctuating gas prices can add to the volatility in electricity markets.
  • Compared with the 2022 forecast, prices are significantly lower in the short term. This can be attributed in particular to the sharp drop in gas prices.
  • Up to 2030 and beyond, however, electricity prices are only slightly below last year's forecast, as the medium-term decline in gas prices was already anticipated in the last forecast.

Electricity price forecast at current level

The dynamics on the global energy markets are high. Therefore, the vbw has commissioned us to adjust our scenarios for the development of wholesale electricity prices to the framework conditions in 2023.

Our approach

The Prognos electricity market model was used to model future electricity market prices. This model represents all power plants in Europe and models the dispatch of the wholesale market on an hourly basis. Both an exchange with foreign countries and a coverage of the respective domestic load are assumed.

We have calculated an upper, a middle and a lower price path for wholesale electricity prices. These are based on the corresponding price paths for natural gas, hard coal and EU emissions trading certificates. The scenarios are based on assumptions about future electricity consumption and future installed capacity for electricity generation

With regard to other parameters such as the expansion of renewable energies and the development of electricity demand, we have oriented ourselves to the current energy and climate policy goals of the German government and the EU.

Links und downloads

To the study (vbw website)

To the 2022 forecast

Project team: Sven Kreidelmeyer und Aurel Wünsch

Last update: 19.07.2023

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Sven Kreidelmeyer

Project Manager

View profile

Mehr Studien & Projekte zu diesem Thema

More studies & projects on this topic

Energy efficiency gap analysis

| Project

Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport has remained relatively stable for the last 20 years. A study for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF) shows how policy can use efficiency measures to counteract this stagnation.

Electricity grid expansion makes headway

| Project

For over 15 years now Prognos has been bringing together the actors concerned by the expansion of the electricity grid and facilitating dialogue between them – from the Danish to the Swiss bor-der.

12th Energy Transition Monitoring

| Project

The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red.

Annual Energy Transition Monitoring

| Project

What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw.

German energy market design

| Project

In the coming years new renewable power plants will have to be built – but also flexible gas power plants, which can be used when required. We examined various incentive instruments on behalf of the vbw.

Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany

| Project

How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW.

Communication support for the building of the 380 kV West Coast Line

| Project

The extension of the energy network lays the foundation for the energy transition. Since 2019, Prognos has been supporting transmission system operator TenneT TSO GmbH with their project communication concerning the establishment of the new West Coast transmission line in Schleswig-Holstein.

Energy prices for industry, an international comparison

| Project

Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030.

Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials

| Project

Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.

Gas balance: Saving efforts must be intensified

| Project update

If savings continue to be as low as in January and February, the risk of a gas shortage will in-crease in the coming winter.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more