Bavarian Industry Association (vbw—Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.)
2023
We expect average wholesale electricity prices to remain significantly higher in the coming years than in 2019/2020, due to higher gas prices and rising prices for emissions trading certificates. On behalf of the vbw - Association of Bavarian Business, we have updated our electricity price forecast from last year and extended the forecast horizon to 2050. For the new electricity price forecast, the Prognos electricity team calculated three scenarios.
The dynamics on the global energy markets are high. Therefore, the vbw has commissioned us to adjust our scenarios for the development of wholesale electricity prices to the framework conditions in 2023.
The Prognos electricity market model was used to model future electricity market prices. This model represents all power plants in Europe and models the dispatch of the wholesale market on an hourly basis. Both an exchange with foreign countries and a coverage of the respective domestic load are assumed.
We have calculated an upper, a middle and a lower price path for wholesale electricity prices. These are based on the corresponding price paths for natural gas, hard coal and EU emissions trading certificates. The scenarios are based on assumptions about future electricity consumption and future installed capacity for electricity generation
With regard to other parameters such as the expansion of renewable energies and the development of electricity demand, we have oriented ourselves to the current energy and climate policy goals of the German government and the EU.
To the study (vbw website)
To the 2022 forecast
Project team: Sven Kreidelmeyer und Aurel Wünsch
Last update: 19.07.2023
Senior Project Manager
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