Agora Energiewende
2024
Öko-Institut, Wuppertal Institut, Universität Kassel
In our 2021 study Climate Neutral Germany, conducted on behalf of Agora Energiewende, Agora Verkehrswende and the Climate Neutrality Foundation, we examined for the first time whether and how Germany can achieve climate neutrality. At the time, the results showed: a reduction in greenhouse gases in Germany of 65 percent by the year 2030 and climate neutrality by 2045 was achievable and technically feasible.
But how are things looking now, three years on?
Germany has moved from the climate policy target-setting phase into the implementation phase and is facing tough challenges: How can industry competitiveness be strengthened? How can the climate-related refurbishment of existing buildings and sustainable mobility be made affordable for all?
In order to answer these questions, we updated our study. Climate Neutral Germany – From Target Setting to Implementation.
Our scenario takes its direction from the following:
The following instruments have been made available to enable the achievement of climate neutrality:
To ensure a targeted, cost-efficient and fair instrumentation a mix of all instruments should be used. Our study gives concrete suggestions for the individual areas.
Back in 2018, we were already examining the pathways available to Germany on the road to climate neutrality, in a much noted study for the BDI. In 2021, the Climate Neutral Germany study followed, where we examined the question of which concrete measures Germany might use to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2045.
This study update not only brings the technical-economical modelling up to date, but also shows the exact instruments and investments required for the implementation phase.
Together with our partners, the Öko-Institut, the Wuppertal Institute and the University of Kassel, we examined the energy industry, industry, buildings, transport, agriculture as well as land use, changes in land use and forestry (LULUCF). Prognos was responsible for the overall project management and for the technical modelling of the instruments in the energy, buildings and non-energy intensive industry sectors.
To the study (PDF, in German)
Analysis: Investments for a climate neutral Germany (PDF)
To the previous study, in German (2021)
More info on the Agora website (in German)
Project team: Elias Althoff, Hans Dambeck, Dr Andreas Kemmler, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Paurnima Kulkarni, Saskia Lengning, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr Alexander Piégsa, Nils Thamling, Dina Tschumi, Minh Phuong Vu, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen
Latest update: 12.12.2024
Press enquiries are to be addressed to Agora Industrie: presse@agora-industrie.de | +49 30 700 1435-112
The scenario is linked to a comprehensive package of measures that identifies a balanced mix of policy instruments that enable the necessary investments and thus ensure social balance.
The current study is the first to calculate the necessary private and public investments and derive the funding requirements.
In order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, it is important that industrialised countries not only become climate-neutral, but also achieve negative emissions in the long term. This scenario shows how this can be achieved as early as 2045.
Biomass is a scarce resource. In addition, the utilisation and cultivation of biomass lead to greenhouse gas emissions from land use (LULUCF). It is therefore important that biomass is utilised as efficiently as possible – i. e. material use takes precedence over energy use. By increasing the utilisation of residual and waste materials, biomass will be cultivated more sustainably than it is today with a constant supply. Biomass is primarily utilised as a material, e. g. as a sustainable source of carbon for the production of plastics.
In the electricity sector, the hourly exchange with other countries has increased. In total – i. e. netted across all imports and exports within a year – net imports were significantly reduced compared to the last scenario and other current long-term energy scenarios. The current scenario thus shows a way in which security of supply can be guaranteed in Germany even without high imports in winter.
In order to make the scenario even more robust, various sensitivities were used to analyse the effects of individual measures being implemented more slowly or not to the extent required – such as a broader application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) along a CO2 transport network, lower remediation activity or a weakening of the forest as a carbon sink due to storms and droughts.
Principal
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We combine economic research and strategy consulting for sustainable decisions in politics, business and society. Our robust data, precise analyses and scientifically based findings enable fact-based progress – financially independent, politically neutral.
