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12th Energy
Transition Monitoring

Client

vbw – Bavarian Industry Association

Year

2024


In the years 2022 and 2023, little progress was achieved in Germany in terms of the energy transition. Such are the results of the 12th Energy Transition Monitoring Report conducted by Prognos on behalf of the vbw – Bavarian Industry Association. Only greenhouse gas emissions fell slightly compared to 2021 – but this was due to rising prices and a shrinking economy.

As in previous years, only the “power outages” indicator showed an unreservedly positive rating with all other indicators receiving a negative assessment. Photovoltaics was a bright spot, with more development occurring than the Federal Government had initially planned.

Prices are rising, emissions are falling

In our annual monitoring report on the energy transition, we look at four areas that are decisive for the energy turnaround. Here are the results for 2022 and 2023:

1. Security of supply

  • The number of power outages remained low.
  • In a European comparison, Germany once again took a leading position in terms of security of supply.
  • However, the expansion of the power grid was more than 10 percent below targets.

2. Affordability

  • Electricity and gas prices continued to rise up to autumn 2022 and were also significantly higher in 2023 than in 2021.
  • These higher costs affected both households and industry.
  • In 2023, wholesale prices fell, but it took time for the effects to reach consumers.

3. Energy efficiency & renewables

  • Higher prices and a tight supply situation led to energy savings for households and industry.
  • Energy consumption fell by 5.4 percent in 2022 compared to the previous year and by 7.9 percent in 2023.
  • The expansion of photovoltaics made good progress. Wind power lagged behind, particularly in Bavaria.

4. Environmental compatibility

  • Greenhouse gas emissions were closer to the target path than in the previous year.
  • The biggest decline was in industry, with 12 percent. The main reason for this was shrinking production, in particular, for energy-intensive companies.
  • Emissions from the transport sector remained almost unchanged.

The course is still to be set

Since 2012, Prognos has been annually examining the extent to which Germany is meeting its energy targets and where expansion is required. The 12th monitoring report mainly concerned the year 2022. Where data for 2023 was available this was partially incorporated into the evaluation.

In 2022 (and 2023), as in previous years, Germany fell short of the objectives stipulated in its climate protection laws. Although some legislative steps were taken, this was only reflected to a limited extent in the results of the monitoring report.

The fact that emission reductions were primarily due to economic losses shows how fragile the successes remain. Political efforts on climate change mitigation are therefore still necessary across all sectors.

For the first time, the Energy Transition Monitoring Report also referred to data from the Prognos Energieatlas, which we have been regularly updating together with the Süddeutsche Zeitung since June 2023.

Links and downloads

To the study (PDF in German)

Further information, in German (vbw website)

To the previous monitoring reports

Project team: Dr Almut Kirchner, Sven Kreidelmeyer

Last update: 07.03.2024

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

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Sven Kreidelmeyer

Project Manager

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