Gas levels: Efforts to make savings must be intensified

For the vbw – Bavarian Industry Association, we regularly examine the German gas supply. The current gas balance monitoring highlights the situation as it was at the beginning of March 2023.

The Prognos gas team examined four consumption scenarios and the associated gas balance development up to the end of 2024. The background: the complete suspension of gas delivery by pipeline from Russia to Germany since September 2022.

Germany’s current gas supply

In February 2023, the weather was overall warmer than in previous years.
Behavioural savings are barely detectable, in households, but also in industry and commerce.
At the end of February, Germany’s gas storage facilities were still 69 percent full.
Germany’s gas imports dropped significantly in February.
Germany continues to import large quantities of gas from Norway, while LNG imports from the world market via the Netherlands, France, and Belgium remain at a high level.
The first floating LNG terminal was put into operation in November 2022 in Wilhelmshaven. Lubmin, and Brunsbüttel followed in January 2023. Another three terminals will be built by winter 2023/2024. This will increase the security of supply – especially in terms of infrastructure.
Although Russia has completely stopped its shipments to Germany, gas supplies from Russia – in particular, LNG volumes – to other EU Member States, remain at a high level.
If savings continue to be as low as in January and February 2023, risks will rise again in the medium term (2024).

Uncertainties remain for winter 2023/2024

Our conclusion for the current gas balance: on balance, it is highly likely that a gas shortage situation can be prevented. Risks remain in the efforts to make gas savings, the transport system (especially with regard to sabotage of import pipelines), the temperatures for the winter of 2023/2024, and the effect of political intervention.