Climate Neutrality Foundation
2022
A number of expert opinions are now providing potential answers to the question, “How can Germany become climate-neutral by the year 2045?” These have come from, for example: the Foundation for Climate Neutrality, Agora Energiewende, and Agora Verkehrswende (Climate Neutral Germany 2045), the BDI ("Climate Paths 2.0"), the German Energy Agency ("Rise of Climate Neutrality"), the Federal Ministry of Economics ("Long-Term Scenarios") or from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) project and the MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) in the context of the Kopernikus Project Ariadne.
Together with the consortia, Prognos carried out a structured comparison of the five climate neutrality scenarios. The goal: to bring transparency to the debate on a climate-neutral Germany. The present comparison shows the similarities and differences between the results and the underlying assumptions of the reports.
The five studies produce similar results, especially for the period up to 2030 – but differ in some cases in the underlying assumptions and with regard to the results over the longer term.
A consistent picture exists above all about how necessary hydrogen and e-fuel are for achieving the goal of climate neutrality. However, there are still different assumptions in development about the quantity and use in the different sectors. In the long term, however, all scenarios expect that electricity will be the dominant energy source in the energy system and that electrification will increase significantly across all sectors.
On the Climate Neutrality Foundation website you will find: Scenario Comparison (PDF, in German)
More information and the data attachment of the senario comparison (in German)
Sebastian Lübbers, Marco Wünsch, Miriam Lovis
Project Manager
Principal
The analysis for the Federal Office of Energy shows that final energy consumption has fallen significantly since 2000, mainly thanks to savings in space and process heating. At the same time, demand has risen in areas such as electrical appliances and building services. Consumption has not changed significantly since 2020.
How far have systems for storing and extracting CO2 developed in Europe? Our study for the German Environment Agency evaluated planned and ongoing CO2 capture projects in Europe, focusing on BECCUS and DACCUS projects.
Prognos has been providing communications support for the network expansion of distribution network operator Schleswig-Holstein Netz since 2006.
How effective are EU cohesion and structural policies in driving green change in Europe? We examined this and other questions together with COWI, Milieu and CSIL on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).
Our study identifies the key cost components for low-carbon blue and green hydrogen and calculates the cost of supplying hydrogen to industry.
The Swiss Federal Office of Energy is planning to redesign its energy strategy for the period up to 2060. Under the leadership of Prognos, various scenarios are being developed for a secure and sustainable energy future for Switzerland. The focus is on the question of how rising electricity demand can be met in the future.
The decarbonisation of industry brings economic opportunities for Germany and the EU. We have investigated the potential of industrial process heat.
Prognos compared international industrial electricity prices for the Austrian electricity industry. Based on this analysis, we also developed recommendations for government instruments to reduce electricity costs.
Grid operator TenneT has put an important power line into operation in Lower Saxony. Prognos supported the communication for the project.
Primary energy consumption in Germany has fallen by a total of ten percent in the last two years. However, not all sectors have been successful.
We combine economic research and strategy consulting for sustainable decisions in politics, business and society. Our robust data, precise analyses and scientifically based findings enable fact-based progress – financially independent, politically neutral.
