Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality
How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we devel-oped scenarios and develop measures.
By the year 2030 80 percent of electricity consumption should come from renewable sources, according to the federal government's target. The switch to a renewable electricity system is a crucial forerunner for the macroeconomic transformation to climate neutrality. On behalf of Agora Energiewende, together with Consentec, we examined how the transformation of the German electricity sector can succeed by 2035.
The study authors developed the scenario “Climate-neutral electricity system 2035" (-CN2035). It addresses the question of how the transition of the German electricity system to renewable energies can be achieved by 2035. It analyses the consequences for electricity generation and consumption and examines the effects on network expansion and operation. It builds on the study “Climate-neutral Germany 2045” (KNDE2045), in which a macroeconomic transformation scenario for climate neutrality was modelled. CN2035 continues to develop KNDE2045 by updating the existing model to meet new government targets for renewable power generation and electricity consumption. Prognos has already created the electricity market modelling for KNDE2045 and has now calculated an updated electricity market model. Based on this, Consentec GmbH created a supplementary network analysis.
“Our new analysis shows a viable path to achieving 80 percent renewable energies in gross electricity consumption by 2030,” explains project manager Marco Wünsch. In addition, it shows that the consistent continuation of the path to 80 percent renewable electricity in 2030 will lead to a climate-neutral electricity system in 2035. At the same time, the coal phase-out until 2030 will occur by means of market instruments and is possible because of the consistent and accelerated expansion of renewable energies; the residual load will be covered by gas-fired power plants. The rapid conversion to hydrogen or hydrogen derivatives reduces fossil gas consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
At the same time, the analysis highlights the scale of the challenge: The yearly addition of wind and solar power plants will increase from 7 gigawatts in 2021 to 29 gigawatts in 2025, reaching a peak of 39 gigawatts in 2030.
More information (Agora website)
Direct to analysis (PDF, Agora website)
Project team: Elias Althoff, Hans Dambeck, Hanno Falkenberg, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen (Prognos AG), Dr. Christoph Maurer, Sebastian Willemsen, Tom Dröscher (Consentec GmbH)
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.Learn more