Energy efficiency gap analysis
German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF)
2024
Can the goals of the Energy Efficiency Act be achieved by 2030? If yes, then how? We analysed these very questions for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF).
Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport, in other words energy demand, has remained the same for the last 20 years. The 2023 Energy Efficiency Act stipulates that by 2030 end energy use and primary energy consumption should be reduced by almost 27 percent and almost 40 percent respectively in comparison to 2008.
Current measures would see a reduction in end energy use of 375 terawatt hours by 2030 compared to 2008. However, this represents only 56 percent of the necessary saving.
When it comes to primary energy consumption the current measures would lead to 90 percent of required savings being achieved. This can be attributed to the intense expansion of renewable electricity production.
Achieving efficiency goals by the year 2030 will require increased efforts and further instruments to be put in place. This includes an ambitious price policy and the consequent implementation of efficiency measures.
Our study examined the following three propositions:
Our calculations show that these three instruments could significantly contribute to the sinking of energy use. However, further action will be required.
On the basis of an energy scenario for the year 2030, it was estimated whether the goals set by the Energy Efficiency Act will be reached and how big the deficit might be. In addition, three instruments were described and their contribution to the closing of the gap estimated. For this purpose, Prognos’ business-as-usual scenario was used. This scenario takes into consideration energy and climate political instruments that are implemented up until 2023, or at least those that have been approved, including the amendment to the 2023 Buildings Energy Act.
To the study (PDF in German)
Project team: Dr Andreas Kemmler, Paurnima Kulkarni, Friedrich Seefeldt
Latest update: 24.05.2024
Senior Project Manager
Partner, Director
On behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), we conduct an annual analysis of the development of energy consumption in Switzerland.
On behalf of the Energy Agency for Electrical Appliances (eae), Prognos annually examines the development in the efficiency of electrical appliances and their influence on energy consumption in Switzerland.
In the period 2000-2023, final energy consumption in Switzerland increased, although the costs of energy sources have risen significantly.
In our report, we estimated the steering effect of the Fuel Emissions Trading Act for the German Environment Agency on the basis of four sensitivities.
The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy has been funding the e-bus market ramp-up since 2018. Together with our partners, we have been investigating how effective this funding has been.
How many laborers and skilled workers will Germany need for the green transformation of its economy? We examined this question on behalf of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce.
How can Germany as an industry location achieve net zero by 2045, whilst still maintaining its competitiveness? This study updates our 2021 calculations made on behalf of Agora Think Tanks.
Prognos and its partners support the preparation of the German government's 2025 to 2027 greenhouse gas projection reports.
With green finance, greenhouse gases in Austria can be reduced by up to four per cent by 2040 – in the bond market alone. This is the result of our study commissioned by the Ministry for Climate Action.
Prognos supports transmission and distribution system operators in the planning and construction communication of the various power line construction projects at the extra-high and high-voltage level.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.