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Energy efficiency
gap analysis


German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF)



Can the goals of the Energy Efficiency Act be achieved by 2030? If yes, then how? We analysed these very questions for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF).

Energy consumption has only slightly decreased

Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport, in other words energy demand, has remained the same for the last 20 years. The 2023 Energy Efficiency Act stipulates that by 2030 end energy use and primary energy consumption should be reduced by almost 27 percent and almost 40 percent respectively in comparison to 2008.

Current measures would see a reduction in end energy use of 375 terawatt hours by 2030 compared to 2008. However, this represents only 56 percent of the necessary saving.

When it comes to primary energy consumption the current measures would lead to 90 percent of required savings being achieved. This can be attributed to the intense expansion of renewable electricity production.

Three propositions to increase energy efficiency

Achieving efficiency goals by the year 2030 will require increased efforts and further instruments to be put in place. This includes an ambitious price policy and the consequent implementation of efficiency measures.

Our study examined the following three propositions:

  • Increasing the CO2 price in the German Fuel Emissions Trading Act
  • Efficiency obligation for buildings
  • Obligatory implementation of measures in the energy and environmental management systems context

Our calculations show that these three instruments could significantly contribute to the sinking of energy use. However, further action will be required.

Our approach

On the basis of an energy scenario for the year 2030, it was estimated whether the goals set by the Energy Efficiency Act will be reached and how big the deficit might be. In addition, three instruments were described and their contribution to the closing of the gap estimated. For this purpose, Prognos’ business-as-usual scenario was used. This scenario takes into consideration energy and climate political instruments that are implemented up until 2023, or at least those that have been approved, including the amendment to the 2023 Buildings Energy Act.

Links and downloads

To the study (PDF in German)

Project team: Dr Andreas Kemmler, Paurnima Kulkarni, Friedrich Seefeldt

Latest update: 24.05.2024

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Andreas Kemmler

Senior Project Manager

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Friedrich Seefeldt

Partner, Director

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