all projects

Energy prices
for industry, an
international comparison


vbw – Bavarian Industry Association



In Europe, electricity and gas continues to be more expensive than elsewhere. European industry thus currently pays more money out for energy than its USA and China equivalents.

Our study for the vbw – Bavarian Industry Association, compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and gives a price development outlook up to the year 2030.

Industry prices for gas and electricity expected to decrease by 2030

International comparison of electricity prices:

  • USA and China have very low industry electricity prices of around 8 ct/kWh.
  • Canada, South Korea, Turkey, and Mexico also have significantly lower prices than most European countries.
  • In Germany, industry electricity prices are at the level of the European average. In both Poland and France, prices are lower.


By 2030 the electricity price level sinks in all European countries under consideration. The reason: an expected decrease in gas prices by 2030 in comparison to the high prices in 2022. In terms of the German prices, we expect a price level in the European mid-range. For businesses that benefit from the electricity price compensation provision, we expect significantly lower electricity prices.

The assumptions that our expectations are based on can be consulted in Chapter 2.4.

International comparison of gas prices:

  • The USA, Mexico and Canada have particularly low gas prices of one to two cents per kilowatt hour. This is due to their natural gas production that covers a large proportion of demand and is very economical.
  • This is not the case in China, Japan, and South Korea where prices sit around five cents per kilowatt hour, due to their dependence on the comparatively expensive import of LNG.
  • Gas prices in Germany are just under the EU average.


  • By 2030, the USA and Turkey are expected to benefit from significantly lower prices than the European and Asian markets. The reason: prices on the Asian market and in Europe are largely dependent on LNG-market price development.

The assumptions that our expectations are based on can be consulted in Chapter 3.3.

Our approach

The Prognos energy team used official data from governmental or semi-governmental agencies as their information source.

The comparison is limited to the energy sources of electricity and gas, as these grid-based energy sources exhibit large price differences between individual countries or markets. For other relevant energy sources – for example oil and its derivatives, such as naptha and heating oil – there is a world market, meaning that price differences between the world regions are much less significant. 

Links and downloads

The study

Project team: Mohammad Alkasabreh, Sven Kreidelmeyer

Last update: 24.10.2023

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Sven Kreidelmeyer

Project Manager

View profile

Mehr Studien & Projekte zu diesem Thema

More studies & projects on this topic

Electricity grid expansion makes headway

| Project

For over 15 years now Prognos has been bringing together the actors concerned by the expansion of the electricity grid and facilitating dialogue between them – from the Danish to the Swiss bor-der.

Support for the Just Transition Platform

| Project

Through the Just Transition Platform (JTP), the EU supports the member states and regions in achieving their climate targets in a fair manner. Prognos provided the JTP with in-depth analyses and knowledge management.

12th Energy Transition Monitoring

| Project

The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red.

Annual Energy Transition Monitoring

| Project

What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw.

Alternative transport scenario for Germany

| Project

Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development.

Ex-post analysis of energy consumption in Switzerland 2022

| Project update

Final energy consumption in Switzerland for the year 2022 was around 4 percent less than in the year 2021. Mobility (32 percent) accounted for the largest share.

Socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland

| Project

What will Switzerland look like in the future? A welfare state in a fair world or an energy guzzler in fortress Europe? We examine the potential impacts of different scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate path implementation in Baden-Württemberg

| Project

In Baden-Württemberg, emissions are to be reduced by a further 23% by 2030. As part of a multi-stage concept, Prognos examines the challenges and opportunities for action in the transfor-mation context.

Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany

| Project

How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW.

Climate-impacting transformation in the transport sector

| Project

The latest geopolitical and economic developments present a challenge for the ecological transi-tion of transport. Prognos develops measures for the BMDV.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more