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Energy prices
for industry, an
international comparison

Client

vbw – Bavarian Industry Association

Year

2023


In Europe, electricity and gas continues to be more expensive than elsewhere. European industry thus currently pays more money out for energy than its USA and China equivalents.

Our study for the vbw – Bavarian Industry Association, compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and gives a price development outlook up to the year 2030.

Industry prices for gas and electricity expected to decrease by 2030

International comparison of electricity prices:

  • USA and China have very low industry electricity prices of around 8 ct/kWh.
  • Canada, South Korea, Turkey, and Mexico also have significantly lower prices than most European countries.
  • In Germany, industry electricity prices are at the level of the European average. In both Poland and France, prices are lower.

Outlook:

By 2030 the electricity price level sinks in all European countries under consideration. The reason: an expected decrease in gas prices by 2030 in comparison to the high prices in 2022. In terms of the German prices, we expect a price level in the European mid-range. For businesses that benefit from the electricity price compensation provision, we expect significantly lower electricity prices.

The assumptions that our expectations are based on can be consulted in Chapter 2.4.

International comparison of gas prices:

  • The USA, Mexico and Canada have particularly low gas prices of one to two cents per kilowatt hour. This is due to their natural gas production that covers a large proportion of demand and is very economical.
  • This is not the case in China, Japan, and South Korea where prices sit around five cents per kilowatt hour, due to their dependence on the comparatively expensive import of LNG.
  • Gas prices in Germany are just under the EU average.

Outlook:

  • By 2030, the USA and Turkey are expected to benefit from significantly lower prices than the European and Asian markets. The reason: prices on the Asian market and in Europe are largely dependent on LNG-market price development.

The assumptions that our expectations are based on can be consulted in Chapter 3.3.

Our approach

The Prognos energy team used official data from governmental or semi-governmental agencies as their information source.

The comparison is limited to the energy sources of electricity and gas, as these grid-based energy sources exhibit large price differences between individual countries or markets. For other relevant energy sources – for example oil and its derivatives, such as naptha and heating oil – there is a world market, meaning that price differences between the world regions are much less significant. 

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The study

Project team: Mohammad Alkasabreh, Sven Kreidelmeyer

Last update: 24.10.2023

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